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Russia's Risky Business

OF THE SEASON

Invitation to Hamas may undercut Israel and road map.

Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agenty

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34

February 16 • 2006

Jerusalem
ussia's readiness to hold talks •
with Hamas following the terror-
ist group's victory in Palestinian
parliamentary election has surprised and
angered decision-makers in Israel. But
how damaging is the Russian move likely
to be?
Israeli leaders worry that Russia's over-
ture to Hamas might become a precedent
and that, if others follow suit, Israel's
attempt to force a .
Hamas-led govern-
ment to moderate its
anti-Israel positions
or face international
isolation will fail.
More than diplo-
matic isolation, how-
ever, it's the loss of
economic aid that
Hamas fears, and this
Vladimir Putin
comes not from
Russia but mainly
from the European Union and United
States. If they withhold the $1.5 billion
they transfer to the Palestinians every
year, some hope it could impel Hamas to
accept Israel's three conditions for dia-
logue: Recognition of the Jewish state's
right to exist, renunciation of terrorism
and acceptance of previous agreements
the Palestinians have signed with Israel.
Israel's strategy is to show Hamas lead-
ers and Palestinians in general that a radi-
cal government will not serve their inter-
ests. Through a combination of diplomat-
ic and economic pressure, the aim is to
force Hamas to adopt a more pragmatic
line or face such intense popular discon-
tent on the Palestinian side that
Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas might be forced to
declare new elections, in which Hamas.
could be ousted. For the policy to work,
however, Israel needs broad international
support, which the Russian move threat-
ens to erode.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was
assigned to get the United States on board.
In talks in Washington last week with
American leaders, including an unsched-
uled meeting with President Bush, Livni
secured an American commitment not to
talk to Hamas unless it accepted the Israeli
conditions for dialogue.
Dov Weissglas and Shalom Turgeman,

jp4

aides to Acting Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert, focused on Europe, urging
Javier Solana, the European Union's exter-
nal affairs minister, not to transfer any of
the E.U.'s massive aid package to a
Hamas-led government — either directly,
through development projects or through
UNRWA, the United Nations agency that
supports Palestinian refugees.

Though the Russians claimed they
merely want to impress on Hamas the
need to meet Israel's conditions for dia-
logue, the pundits were not convinced.
They argued that Russia would be con-
ferring legitimacy on Hamas without the
terrorist group having to change an ide-
ology that calls for Israel's destruction.

Lending An Ear

Ha'aretz military analyst Ze'ev Schiff
predicted that the Russian move would
boomerang: Instead of becoming the
only party in a position to mediate, he
wrote, Russia no longer would be able to
play the role of honest broker in peace
talks.
Moreover, Schiff said, the Russian
gambit endangered the internationally
backed road map peace plan.
If France which gave mixed sig-
nals that it might follow Russia's lead —
indeed did so, "that will be the end of
the road map:' Schiff warned.
Some saw a return to days when the
Soviet Union served as the Arabs' main
foreign backer. Writing in Yediot
Achronot, analyst Sever Plotzker warned
that Russia would reap scant rewards.
"Has Russia learned nothing from the
Soviet Union's support for Palestinian
terror in the past?" he asked. "Its Middle
Eastern policy was rife with errors, fail-
ures and strange alliances that led to
Moscow being banished from every cor-
ner of the Middle East."
The experts agree that there is not a
lot Israel can do about the Russian
move, besides shoring up support in
Europe and the United States. Israel's
responses are limited when dealing with
a major power like Russia, they say.
Avi Primor, head of European Studies
at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary -Center,
told Israel Radio that "relations with
Russia are far too important to create a
crisis over this."
Primor, who served as Israeli ambas-
sador to the European Union, believes
the European embargo on aid to the
Palestinians could hold. Moreover, he
claims that Israel has powerful econom-
ic leverage of its own.
"Hamas was elected to improve the
Palestinian standard of living;' he notes.
"They can't do that without our help."
Still, the big question remains: Will
the Russian move set off a domino
process that leaves Israel's anti-Hamas
policy in ruins? ❑

For now, the Europeans are listening —
but what will happen if withholding aid
money leads to intense suffering on the
Palestinian side? And, Solana asked, was
there not a danger that if Europe with-
held funds, radical countries like Iran
could step in to fill the vacuum?
Weissglas assured Solana that Iran
could not contribute anything remotely
approaching the sums the Palestinians
receive from Europe, and that withhold-
ing aid might force the Palestinians to be
more pragmatic.
Nevertheless, most Israeli pundits are
skeptical and do not believe Europe will
persist in denying funds to the
Palestinians. Writing soon after Russian
President Vladimir Putin's announce-
ment that he intended to invite Hamas
leaders to Moscow, Ma'ariv editor
Amnon Dankner forecast the imminent
collapse of international support for the
Israeli position.
"It seems that the next step is already
written on the wall: Hamas will mumble
something vague and deliberately mis-
leading out of the side of its mouth in
order to enable the international com-
munity to establish ties, open a dialogue
and urge Israel to sit down and negoti-
ate Dankner wrote.
Israeli politicians were highly critical
of the Russian move, seeing it as a cyni-
cal attempt to regain center stage in
Middle Eastern affairs, regardless of the
diplomatic or security costs to Israel.
Transportation Minister Meir Sheetrit
described it as "a knife in the back:'
Israeli pundits echoed the anger.
"Putin has identified a rare and great
opportunity to again become the central
and chief player in the Middle East, the
only one who can deliver and mediate
between the parties. But he ignores the
fact that he is playing a dirty game, and
that the goal he scored was after the ref-
eree had already whistled for halftime
Ma'ariv political analyst Ben Caspit corn-
mented.

Changing Directions?

