A Stroke
Of Fate
With or without Sharon, Israel's
political jockeying continues.
Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
nly two things seem capa-
ble of stopping Ariel
Sharon's new Kadima
Party from winning March elec-
tions by a landslide: a hail of
Palestinian rockets from the Gaza
Strip or a turn for the worse in
Sharon's health.
Ever since the prime minister
suffered a minor stroke last week
— he's scheduled for a heart
catheterization procedure in
January — speculation has been
rife as to what might happen if
Sharon were seriously incapacitat-
ed.
Some pundits say it would open
the center of the Israeli political
spectrum — space occupied
today largely by Kadima — to
fierce competition from other par-
ties.
Some doubt whether anyone
but Sharon would have the clout to
carry through further withdrawals
from the West Bank. And some
predict that without Sharon,
Kadima would simply implode.
What's clear is that Sharon's
brief hospitalization has put the
health issue and the question of
Nvho would succeed him as prime
minister near the top of the elec-
tion agenda.
Another potential embarrass-
ment for Kadima could be ongo-
ing Palestinian rocket fire on
Israeli civilians.
The fact that just months after
Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, a
move touted as Sharon's greatest
foreign policy success, Palestinian
rockets are falling almost daily on
Israeli civilians and even reaching
the port city of Ashkelon. This
O
36
December 29 - 2005
could have a major impact on the
March ballot.
Traditionally, Israeli elections
have been won or lost in the battle
between Labor and Likud over the
middle ground between them. The
difference in this election is that
Kadima already has captured
most of that political space.
If Sharon is taken out of the
equation, however, both Labor and
Likud would hope to make
inroads into the centrist vote.
Regardless of whether or not
Sharon is there, both Labor and
Likud are positioning themselves
for an assault on the centrist
fringes. Labor leader Amir Peretz
is deliberately distancing himself
from the dovish left: "We are not
Geneva',' he says, referring to the
left's "Geneva accord" peace initia-
tive, which offers the Palestinians
additional concessions beyond the
peace plan that was on the table
before the intifada began.
Peretz adds that Labor would be
even tougher on terrorism than
Kadima or the right, because "no
one could accuse us of trying to
scuttle peace prospects!'
Likud Party leader Benjamin .
Netanyahu also is trying to boost
his centrist credentials. His repre-
sentatives describe the Likud as "a
liberal centrist movement:' and
Netanyahu is moving to marginal-
ize the disproportionate influence
within the party of a far-right
grouping led by Moshe Feiglin.
Other smaller parties contesting
the centrist space are Yosef
"Tommy" Lapid's secular Shinui
Party and Tafnit, a small party
formed by a former Israel Defense
Forces' deputy chief of staff, Uzi
Dayan, which is running on an
anti-corruption platform. These
parties also would benefit from
Sharon's absence.
Some pundits suggest that
Kadima could disintegrate with-
out Sharon.
Leading Kadima politicians,
such as Justice Minister Tzipi •
Livni, respond that Kadima
reflects a deep need in Israeli soci-
ety that goes far beyond Sharon
the man: A desire to create a
Jewish and democratic Israel, free
from terrorism, living within bor-
ders recognized by most of the
international community
Livni says Kadima stems from
an awakening of right-wing
Israelis from the dream of Greater
Israel and a recognition among
left-wingers that there can be no
instant peace with the
Palestinians. Without Sharon, the
party might do less well at the
polls, but still well enough to go on
pressing for what it believes, Livni
told Israel TV.
In Sharon's absence, Livni and
Finance Minister Ehud Olmert
probably would vie for the leader-
ship.
Olmert is far more experienced,
is very close to Sharon and was
the first Cabinet minister to back
the Gaza withdrawal plan.
Livni, another Sharon favorite,
formulated compromises with
Sharon's Likud opponents in gov-
ernment and is drafting Kadima's
election platform. Her big advan-
tagels that she is more popular
than Olmert: Polls show Kadima
under Livni winning 30 seats to
just 26 under Olmert.
Under Sharon, however, the
party is projected to get around 40
seats.
In the wake of Sharon's stroke,
some pundits are advocating that
leaders of each party name a No.
2, who would take over if the
leader is unable to perform his
duties. In Sharon's case, the deputy
would be Olmert, insiders say
However, there's a more funda-
mental question: Could any other
leader, in Kadima or in the rival
parties, continue Sharon's policy of
partitioning the Land of Israel?
Ha'aretz commentator Yoel
Marcus thinks not. Sharon, he
writes, is "one of those legendary
leaders whose abilities and per-
sonal character bisected history at
precisely that moment when their
strength and leadership qualities
were needed!'
In Marcus' view, only Sharon
can dismantle settlements, end
the occupation and make an
agreement \vith the Palestinians.
"At this point in time, Sharon has
become the kind of leader who is
irreplaceable he concludes.
So how illor frail is the 77-
year-old Sharon? According to
doctors who gave details of his
condition, the minor stroke he
suffered has not impaired his
mental or physical faculties in any
way.
But, they say, he will have to
undergo cardiac catheteriiation
next month to seal a tiny perfora-
tion between the walls of his
heart, which they describe as a
minor physical defecthe was born
with. The procedure is relatively
simple and not expected to cause
any problems. -
Sharon's medical record shows
that he was wounded in the thigh
during the 1948 War of
Independence and has a slight
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon speaks to the press
before leaving Hadassah Ein
Karem Hospital on Dec. 20,
two days after suffering
a mild stroke.
limp; he has had gall and kidney
stones removed; has suffered from
gout; and, at 5 feet 7 inches tall, is
obese at 250 pounds.
Still, his doctors insist, an
exhaustive battery of tests shows
that Sharon is strong and healthy,
does not suffer from high blood
pressure and does not have signs
of arteriosclerosis.
The most serious threat to
Sharon's re-election could come
from Gaza.
The prime minister has ordered
the IDF to do whatever it takes to
put an end to Palestinian rocket
fire.
One possibility is the establish-
ment of an Israeli-held security
zone in northern Gaza to force the
rocket launchers back and put
Israeli towns and cities out of
range, but the Palestinians say
they already have longer-range
rockets.
If the security situation deterio-
rates drastically and the Likud is
able to blame it on the withdrawal
from Gaza, Sharon and Kadima
could be in trouble. Li