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48
December 15 • 2005 al
ran may be just months away from
being able to produce a nuclear
bomb and a fierce debate is raging
in Israel over how to react. The critical
date could come in March, when a series
of developments will converge:
• It will be too late to stop Iran from
making a bomb, according to Israel's
chief of military intelligence, Maj. Gen.
Aharon Farkash-Ze'evi.
•The International Atomic Energy
Agency is due to issue a report that
month on Iran's nuclear drive that could
lead to sanctions against Teheran or
highlight the international community's
inability to act in concert on the issue.
• Israeli elections are scheduled for
March 28, with the Iranian nuclear
threat already shaping up to be a hot
campaign issue.
• The London Sunday Times claims
Israel has ordered elite forces to be
ready by late March for a possible strike
against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Both Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's
office and Israeli defense officialS dis-
missed the Sunday Times story as a
"baseless fabrication."
At the same time, Sharon says Israel
will not be able to tolerate a nuclear Iran
and that the Jewish state has the capa-
bility to act to prevent it.
"We have the ability to deal with this
and we are making all the preparations
to be ready for such a situation': he
declared in an early December news
conference.
But does Israel really have a military
option against the Iranian nuclear
threat? And can it go it alone, as it did
against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in
1981? Most leading Israeli pundits are
skeptical. And some fear election rheto-
ric could-compromise Israeli policy, hurt
Israel's international standing and gen-
erally prove counterproductive.
Iranian statements over the past few
months underline just how dangerous
the threat to Israel could be.
In October, Iran's hard-line President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel
should be "wiped off the map"; earlier
I
Ccuite4, iyet veer& ettstf, fraw6, etc/.
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Bomb Iran?
Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
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ANALYSIS
Iranian threat already surfaces as
hot issue in Israeli elections.
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this month, he said Israel should be dis-
mantled and re-established in Europe.
Israeli officials say a bomb in the
hands of leaders with ideas like these
adds up to a rogue regime with a pre-
disposition and the means to destroy
Israel.
What Israel Faces
Israel's dilemma is acute: how. to get the
international community to act without
seeming to be goading it into action; or
alternatively, how to act itself without
incurring international opprobrium or
aggravating the situation.
Powerful voices in the international
community are cautioning Israel against
attacking. In Norway to receive the
Nobel Peace Prize over the weekend, the
IAEAs director, Mohammed ElBaradei
asserted that force simply wouldn't
work.
"You cannot use force to prevent a
country from obtaining nuclear
weapons': he told the Oslo-based
Aftenposten."13y bombing them half to
death, you can only delay the plans. But
they will come back, and they will
demand revenge."
It is precisely because of the complex-
ity of the issue that Sharon has been
keen to put it on the election agenda.
His message is plain: Labor leader Amir
Peretz is too inexperienced to handle it,
and Likud front-runner Benjamin
Netanyahu too unreliable.
Indeed, Netanyahu seemed to play
into Sharon's hands by declaring that if
he became prime minister, he would
bomb Iran's nuclear facilities the way
had bombed the Iraqi reactor under
Menachem Begin. This drew a sharp
response from Ha'aretz."Whoever pub-
licly recommends an Israeli military
option sins doubly. He incites the Israeli
public unnecessarily; presents Israel as
pushing the U.S. into a major new war;
drags this sensitive subject into the
overheated rhetoric of an election cam-
paign; and invites Iranian threats and
various anti-Israel reactions': Ha'aretz
wrote in an editorial.
Israeli Options
Official Israeli policy remains deliber-
ately vague.
On the one hand, Israeli officials