aNi I Metro Keeping Count Demographer knows the community well ... by the numbers. A demographic of old Jewish Detroit "You know the old saying that knowl- edge is power," he says in explaining his work. "That's absolutely the case in my field. Public officials applying for grants, e was born in Cincinnati (est. school administrators, charitable organi- population 314,154) and lives zations — much of the time they're just in Pleasant Ridge (est. popula- making guesses about their demograph- tion 2,594). But Kurt Metzger is now ics. When they see raw numbers, they're the main man when people want the not sure what to do with them. latest scoop on the numbers out of "We try to analyze the information Detroit (est. population 900,198). and give them the larger picture. We When it comes to demographics — democratize the data, show them where not only the raw data on people in motion but where they're going and why their market is and how they can serve it better. —Metzger's Detroit office at Wayne Jim Jacobs , associate director of com- State University is "information central" munity colleges for the for news media and Teachers College of other academics. Columbia University In "I must be in the New York City, calls Rolodex of every Metzger "a clear treasure reporter in town look- of the Detroit area. ing for a knee-jerk reac- Making it real. That's tion," he says. "But I his gift. He brings the enjoy what I do and I data alive." enjoy talking about it. His recent study on 'And for some people crime in downtown in Detroit, it's an easy Detroit is called a land- way to get out of giving mark by Jim Townsend a tough answer; just of the Metropolitan refer the callers to me." Detroit Tourist and Metzger, lean and Convention Bureau. affable at 57, was "He showed that our trained as a psycholo- downtown was as safe gist. But he soon dis- as any other big city," covered the allure of Townsend says. "That numbers. Asking people sort of breakdown of why they live where crime statistics had they do has some strong never been done here elements of psychology before, and it took away to it, too. a big cloud from the The onetime member city's reputation. It of Temple Israel has debunked the myths lived in the area since Kurt Metzger in his Detroit o and delivered the facts." 1975, when he was Charts and ideas fill assigned to the Detroit Metzger's office. The flow of African- office by the U.S. Census Bureau. Americans across the city and into the Married with two grown children, he suburbs from the 1940 Census to 2000. now runs the Michigan Metropolitan Information Center within Wayne State. The fact that the percentage of over-65 population in the suburbs of Warren Metzger did not participate in the last and Livonia is higher than in most cities formal census of the area's Jewish popu- in Florida. Pinpointing the dispersal of lation, 16 years ago, but hopes to pro- crime, AIDS and income, for instance, vide some technical support for the new is priceless information for those who head count being planned by need to know. Federation. Planned Parenthood, Head Start, the GEORGE CANTOR Special to the Jewish News EE Skillman Foundation, the Community and Home Improvement Division of Oakland County — all of them have come to Metzger to get their demo- graphics figured out. Shrinking Detroit The most intriguing part of the puzzle is the population decline of Detroit, and what, if anything, can be done about it. "It will stabilize soon," Metzger says. "Everyone who wanted to leave has pret- ty much gone, and there is a small influx of singles and childless couples moving downtown. So at around 850,000 it will come into balance. "But the larger problem is the city's immigrant population. In every older American city that shows some growth, it is these new arrivals, the immigrants, who are responsible. That's how it's always been in these cities. "They bring entrepreneurial energy. They tend to have larger families, and that is good for the public schools. They create a demand for goods and services. "In most other cities, though, they stay for a while, maybe until the next generation grows up. In Detroit, it seems they leave as soon as they can. The city doesn't retain them." Many of these neighborhoods are among the most commercially active in Detroit. But the cycle has been speeded up, and as soon as the newcomers get a stake, they pick up and pack out to the suburbs. Some of it can be explained by the fact that they are frozen out of political power by a system that elects City Council members at-large rather than by wards that could give added weight to concentrated immigrant communities. Jewish Shift Metzger also suspects that the metropol- itan area's Jewish population has dropped since it was tallied at a surpris- ingly high 96,000 in 1989. Florida demographer Ira Sheshkin, who special- izes in surveying Jewish communities, will be in charge of the new count. "The stories everyone hears about young Jewish people moving away aren't anecdotal," Metzger says. "They are demographic facts. The question is how to get them back or keep them here." "We're hoping to get at some of those answers," says Federation President Peter Alter about the new census. "We want to drill down to find the facts behind the numbers, whether they're up or down, so we can serve the Jewish popu- lation here in the most meaningful fash- ion" Those answers are co-mingled with the fate of Detroit. Because it is the only place in this area where the sort of urban life style many young people seem to want may be possible. Only not yet, and maybe not ever. "The city is missing a perfect oppor- tunity to come to grips with these ques- tions," says Metzger. "Since the legisla- ture disallowed residency requirements for city employees, Detroit has lost a lot of these workers." (According to some counts, it may amount to 4,500 fami- lies, about one-quarter of total city workers.) "The city should be interviewing these people, both those who left and those who stayed. 'Why did you choose to go? What were the factors behind your decision either way?' "I don't think they're doing that, and it is a great chance to explore the think- ing of a well-defined group. Their leav- ing is having a disparate impact on some neighborhoods where a lot of city workers had clustered. The affect on taxes is huge. "These are major issues. Knowing the answers about why these choices were made would give us a chance to get behind the claims and get at the facts. Claims made without supporting infor- mation will always be met with suspi- cion." Asked about future projects, he smiles. "It's too bad that Sharon McPhail did- n't get past the primary for mayor," he says. "She wanted to appoint a 'popula- tion czar' for the city. How cool would that be? I could have gone for that. Who wouldn't want to be a czar?" J14 9/ 1 2005 33