Analysis
Eye Of The Storm?
In quiet, some see signs of hope — but obstacles to peace remain acute.
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
W
ith Palestinian militias generally commit-
ted to a lull in the fighting with Israel,
and Arab countries debating normalizing
ties with the Jewish state, some Israelis see signs that
the 57-year-old Arab-Israeli conflict finally may be
winding down.
But despite a hesitant optimism, certain factors
suggest that an end to the conflict still appears far
off:
• The current cease-fire is fragile and could unrav-
el at any moment.
• The radical Palestinian organization Hamas,
which opposes peace with Israel, is getting stronger.
• Most Arab countries still oppose normalization
until Israel withdraws from all of what the Arabs
consider "occupied territory"
• Israel insists that the Palestinians fulfill their
promise to disband terrorist groups before the peace
process advances, a commitment the Palestinians
show no inclination to meet.
• And on the Israeli side, opponents of withdraw-
al, both within Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's own
party and further to the right, are trying to torpedo
the disengagement plan.
The lull — or tandiya as the Palestinians call it —
was announced March 17 in Cairo after a meeting
under Egyptian aegis of all the main Palestinian
militias with Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas. The bottom line: The terrorist
groups say there will be no more terror attacks
against Israel at least until the end of 2005.
But the truce is heavily conditional. For the quiet
to continue, the Palestinians demand that Israel
meet a number of conditions:
• Not assassinate or arrest wanted terrorists.
• Release Palestinian prisoners.
• Refrain from building in Jewish settlements in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
• And stop "Judaizing" eastern Jerusalem.
A six-point document released after the Cairo par-
ley also reiterated the Palestinians' strategic goals:
Establishing a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its
capital and securing a right for Palestinian refugees
to return to homes and property they abandoned in
Israel more than half a century ago.
The document makes no mention of a Palestinian
state coexisting peacefully next to Israel and offers
no hint of compromise over the return of
Palestinian refugees to Israel.
If the strong, heavily conditional wording was
designed to get Hamas and Islamic Jihad to come
aboard, it succeeded. But it also gives the militias a
range of pretexts for returning to violence whenever
they see fit.
The Israeli assessment is that the lull probably will
hold until after this summer's planned Israeli with-
drawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West
Bank, despite the possibility of intermittent rogue
attacks.
What happens next is anybody's guess, Israeli ana-
lysts say. It will depend to a large extent on how the
new relationship being forged between Abbas' secu-
lar Fatah movement and the powerful fundamental-
ist groups plays out.
In the long term, Israeli analysts say, the fact that
the radicals have decided to join the political process
is even more significant than the lull in violence.
Hamas boycotted the last Palestinian parliamentary
elections in 1996, but now the group says it will run
in elections slated for July. Hamas already has had
some significant successes in municipal and univer-
sity ballots.
In local elections in January, Hamas won 70 per-
cent of the councils it contested. Last week, it won 25
of 41 seats in student elections at Hebron University.
Both Israeli and Palestinian pundits predict a
strong showing by Hamas in July parliamentary
elections. They say Hamas never has been stronger,
and that the election could well be fought over
socioeconomic rather than political issues, with
Hamas picking up a strong anti-establishment vote
that works against Fatah.
Writing in the mass circulation newspaper Yediot
Achronot, Alex Fishman maintained that Hamas
could win enough seats to virtually dictate the
Palestinian political agenda.
"Central Fatah people are really concerned about
the Hamas momentum: They say that 'unless some-
thing dramatic happens, 70 percent of the delegates
Gaza sends to parliament will be Hamas people.
Abu Mazen will have to dance to their tune,"' he
wrote, using Abbas' nom de guerre.
Danny Rubinstein, chief Arab-affairs analyst for
Ha'aretz, takes a similar view. "East Jerusalem people
say the public is angry at Fatah activists who have
not been serving the public but rather handing out
perks to cronies. The way to punish Fatah, they say,
is by voting Hamas," Rubinstein wrote.
If Hamas gains a good measure of political power,
the question is how it will use it. Will it become
more moderate and responsible, accepting the need
for a two-state solution with coexistence with Israel
and a practical solution to the refugee issue? Or will
it radicalize the entire Palestinian movement, ren-
dering peacemaking virtually impossible?
That could be the key question in Israeli-
Palestinian politics for years to come.
Israeli generals and politicians envisage more imme-
diate problems. The military chief of staff, Lt. Gen.
Moshe Ya'alon, is suspicious of the motives behind
the Palestinian lull. "The militias want the lull, but
see it as a time to regroup and rearm before the fight-
ing resumes, without waiving their strategic goals," he
recently told businessmen in northern Israel.
Israeli soldiers remove concrete barriers during last
week's transfer of Jericho to Palestinian control.
Sharon has described the lull as a "positive first
step," but added that for "progress in the diplomatic
process, the terrorist organizations will not be able
to continue existing as armed militias." In other
words, Sharon insists that Abbas fulfill the
Palestinian commitment to disarm terrorist groups,
while Abbas prefers to try to co-opt them politically.
The result could be deadlock. In an attempt to
break the looming logjam, Jordan's King Abdullah is
proposing some bold, out-of-the-box thinking.
The normal Arab sequencing in peacemaking with
Israel should be reversed, Abdullah says. Until now,
Arab proposals have insisted that Israel withdraw
from occupied territory before the Arabs normalize
ties, but Abdullah argues that if the Arabs first nor-
malized ties, Israel would feel secure enough to
withdraw from territory.
Not only that: If the Arabs made such a collective
gesture, there would be enormous international
pressure on Israel to pull out of Arab territory.
Behind the scenes, some Arab and Muslim coun-
tries appeared ready to buy into Abdullah's ideas.
But Egypt, Syria and the Palestinians were instru-
mental in preventing the proposal from being raised
at an Arab League summit in Algiers in late March.
The key to a breakthrough in peacemaking there-
fore remains what it always has been: progress on
the Palestinian track. And despite the lull in vio-
lence, political differences between Israelis and
Palestinians seem as acute as ever.
For example, where Sharon sees the road-map'
peace plan leading to an interim Palestinian state,
Abbas wants to move straight to full-fledged
Palestinian statehood and a final territorial settle-
ment with Israel. And even if Sharon were ready to
make that leap, would an empowered Hamas allow
Abbas to make the offer?
Sharon and Abbas are due to meet separately with
President Bush in the United States next month.
After those talks, perhaps the way forward will
become a little clearer. ❑
3/24
2005
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