What's Next?

After the summit, steps forward are tempered by doubts and fears.

LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem
he dust is still settling after last week's sum-
mit at the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-
Sheikh, but early signs on the ground are
highly contradictory.
Last week, just 48 hours after the summit,
Palestinian terrorist groups fired more than 50
mortar shells at Jewish settlements in the Gaza
Strip — yet now Hamas, the largest and most
important (and dangerous) of the terrorist groups,
says it's committed to the cease-fire announced at
the summit.
Israel's security service, Shin Bet, says the cease-
fire won't last, but the Israel Defense Forces say
everything must be done to give Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas a chance to
impose law and order.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is doing all he
can to help Abbas, but right-wing efforts to subvert
Sharon's policy are taking on a more menacing
character.
And while Israeli officials say peacemaking will
succeed only if the terrorist groups are disarmed —
a key component of the internationally backed road-
map peace plan — Abbas makes clear that he has no
intention of moving against the terrorists
any time soon.
Not surprisingly, assessments differ as to
whether this latest Israeli-Palestinian peace
bid will succeed.
Sharon is accentuating the positive. He returned
from the summit in high spirits, emphasizing two
major achievements: All the key players, including
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Jordan's King
Abdullah and Abbas, now recognize that terrorism
must stop before peacemaking can begin. They also
all accept Israel's plan to withdraw from the Gaza
Strip and part of the West Bank as the basis for a
new dynamic leading to peace talks based on the
road map.
In the not-so-distant past, the Arabs and many
Europeans had argued that peacemaking was the
way to stop terrorism. Now, a senior Sharon aide
told JTA, it's clear to everyone that terrorism must
stop before peace can have a chance.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, right, shakes hands with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
at a summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Feb. 8.

But Israeli officials point to key differences from
the pre-intifada status quo that give them hope for a
better outcome this time around. For one, both
sides have been traumatized by the violence and
realize the consequences of failing to
achieve a political settlement. Moreover,
influential regional players are playing a
positive role, and an Israeli withdrawal
plan and a step-by-step road map toward
an agreement are in place.
But the biggest change of all, one official told
JTA, "is that now, at last, there is a rational partner
on the Palestinian side."
The acid test, Israeli officials say, will be whether
the new Palestinian leadership can stop the terror.
Israeli government spokesman Avi Pazner maintains
that this will be possible only if Abbas confronts and
disarms Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
"Otherwise, even if he gets them to agree to a
cease-fire, it won't last. In a few days or weeks from
now, they will start firing mortars or Kassam rockets
again, we will react, and we'll all be back to Square
One, embroiled in a new intifada," Pazner said.
"The militias will either have to disarm voluntarily,
or Abbas will have to take them on. There is no
other way."
The fragility of the cease-fire was highlighted
when terrorist groups bombarded Jewish settle-
ments in Gaza on Feb. 10. But on Sunday, after a
meeting with Abbas, Hamas leader Mahmoud
Zahar announced that Hamas not only accepted
the cease-fire, but also would consult with the
Palestinian Authority before "retaliating against
Israeli violations."
Abbas showed his seriousness after the shelling by

ANAL TSIS

Summit's Vibes

On the declarative level at least, the summit sig-
naled a return to the situation that existed before
the intifada began in September 2000. According to
the understandings reached, the violence will end,
Israeli troops will move out of Palestinian towns
and cities, roadblocks will be lifted, Palestinian pris-
oners will be released and Palestinian workers will
return to Israel.

firing high-ranking P.A. security commanders for
failing to enforce the cease-fire.
Israeli officials also are concerned about the pres-
ence of Iranian-backed Hezbollah cells in the
Palestinian territories and fear they might act on
orders from Tehran to undermine steps toward
peace. They fear Abbas himself could be a target.

Differing Views

The IDF and Shin Bet differ in their assessments of
how much Abbas can achieve. Shin Bet is convinced
he will not act against the terrorists and that the
current lull will last a month or two at most, and
the terrorist groups will use that time to re-arm and
prepare for new attacks.
Israel, therefore, should be careful not to take
steps that will make fighting terrorism harder in the
future, Shin Bet says. The army, on the other hand,
argues that Abbas must be given every chance to
impose law and order and that Israel must do all it
can to help him, even if that means taking chances
on security.
Sharon, who backs the IDF's approach rather than
Shin Bet's, says the government will do all it can to
help Abbas. Indeed, it seems Sharon is ready to
break with precedent and release terrorists who have
killed Israelis, a key Palestinian demand.
Two initial groups of 500 and 400 prisoners slated
for release do not include any with "blood on their
hands." But the day after his return from Sharm al-
Sheikh last week, Sharon told journalists he had
promised Abbas that if he ended terrorism, Israel
would consider releasing prisoners who have

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