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Analysis

Baby Boom

Orthodox birthrate soars as overall Jewish
numbers drop below replacement level.

HILLEL GOLDBERG
Special to the Jewish News

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12/24

2004

28

here is a silent divide in the
American Jewish community.
Nobody's talking about it,
but it is placing the Orthodox and
non-Orthodox Jewish communities
in very different places.
This divide supersedes religion and
ideology (though it is linked to
them) and goes to the core of two
parallel universes. The implications
are vast.
The 2001 National Jewish
Population Survey found that the
intermarriage rate was stable over the
previous decade — but not so the
birthrate. However, when the UJC
released a report devoted to
Orthodox Jews, there was not a sin-
gle reference to Orthodox fertility.
This is odd, reflecting, perhaps,
unease over the radical redefinition
of family life and women's roles in
both Orthodox and non-Orthodox
circles since the 1960s.
The 2001 figures, reflecting the
realities of the previous decade,
showed that American Jewish women
were having an average of 1.86 chil-
dren. The majority were remaining
childless until age 34. Replacement
level is considered 2.1 children. In
other words, the American Jewish
community is not even replacing
itself, let alone growing.
The implications for American
Jewry's internal health — not to
mention advocacy for Israel — are
staggering.
However, one segment of American
Jewry is going in the opposite direc-
tion.
The 2001 survey showed that mod-
ern Orthodox Jewish women have
3.3 children, "yeshivish" women, 6.6
children, and chasidic women, 7.9
children.
If this same survey were to be done
in 2004, these numbers would likely
be higher. Can there be a meeting
ground between radically different
family structures? Is there anything

923140

Hillel Goldberg is a writer for the
Intermountain Jewish News.

that can be done to reverse American
Jewry's less-than-zero population
growth?

A Radical Change

For the cause, context and complica-
tions of the astronomical Orthodox
Jewish birth rate, we may turn to
Viva Hammer, who works in the
office of tax policy of the U.S.
Department of the Treasury. She
wrote on the Orthodox "baby boom ))
in a recent edition of Jewish Action.
Historically, members of American
Orthodox synagogues defected in
droves to the Conservative and
Reform movements beginning some
60 years ago. Income in Orthodox
families was lower, often at poverty
level. What changed?
First, some statistical and anecdotal
evidence shows how radically things
have changed.
In Lakewood, N.J., there are an
estimated 5,000 Jewish families.
There are 1,700 births per year. In
America in 2002, there were 65
births per 1,000 women. Based on
this proportion, the birthrate in
Lakewood should be 358 babies per
year — not 1,700.
The birthrate there is 4.8 times
higher than the general American
population.
Not every Orthodox Jewish com-
munity is like Lakewood, but every
Orthodox community has a much
higher birthrate than do other Jewish
communities. Even modern
Orthodox Jewish women, at an aver-
age of 3.3 children, exhibit roughly
twice the rate of the non-Orthodox
American Jewish woman.
The denominational difference is
new. A 1997 study found that Jewish
women aged 50 and over have an
average of 2.25 children — with no
significant difference between the
denominations.
Clearly, the present gulf between
the Orthodox and non-Orthodox
indicates that the majority of Jewish
women, who are remaining childless
until age 34, are not Orthodox, while
most Orthodox women start their
families at a much younger age.
Then there is the issue of the work-
ing mother. Mothers with large fami-
lies have less (or no) time to work

