Peace Process Post-Arafat, all sides in Middle East struggle are entangled. LESLIE SUSSER Jewish Telegraphic Agency Jerusalem he post-Arafat era has begun with high hopes in Washington, London, Jerusalem and even Ramallah — but many of the obstacles that prevented peace in Yasser Arafat's day remain, and it's not clear if any of the major players has the single-minded determination to make peace happen. The United States is not as actively involved as it may have to be; the Europeans, who would like to be inti- mately involved, don't have the necessary political clout; the Israeli leadership, insulated by strong American backing and facing a recalcitrant right wing, sees no need to hurry; and the new Palestinian leaders, hamstrung by radi- cal, violent opponents, may not be able to make concessions beyond what the late Palestinian Authority president countenanced. President Bush gave an inkling of the ambivalence inherent in American poli- cy after a meeting last week in Washington with British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Bush rejected Blair's call for an inter- national conference and a speedy transi- tion to talks on a final peace agreement, saying the Palestinians first would have to stop terrorism against Israel. At the same time, however, Bush said he still believed the establishment of a Palestinian state is the only way to resolve the conflict. The essence of American policy can be gleaned from those ostensibly incongru- T Palestinians revere Yasser Arafat at his Nov. 12 funeral. Photo by Brian Hendler/JTA ous statements: The United States will help the Palestinians achieve statehood on condition that they stop violence and carry out economic, security and politi- cal reforms. In other words, it's up to them to make the first move. Bush also seemed to alter the time frame for Palestinian statehood. Whereas the road- map peace plan — presented in 2002 spoke of 2005 as the target date, Bush said he was determined to work toward a Palestinian state by the time he leaves office, in January 2009. This reinforced the president's main message to the Palestinians: They must get their act together before the United States will be ready to help. If they're slow, there will be a price to pay in the deferral of national aspira- tions. The quicker they act, the quicker statehood can be achieved. European officials believe the American role primarily should be to help the new Palestinian leadership establish its legitimacy. First, they say, the United States can help with elections for a new Palestinian Authority president by leaning on Israel to allow ANA USE — optimum conditions for a free election, with as few signs of occupation as possi- ble. The election process will have two salutary effects, the Europeans argue: bringing to power a Palestinian leader accepted by the people and creating a sense of democracy at work. The Europeans also believe that they and the Americans can aid Palestinian democratization by helping to build institutions and train P.A. security forces. But they know that Europe alone can- not effect a breakthrough, and that the United States must take the lead. As for the Palestinians, they cannot take things forward unless the new lead- ers establish a stable government. So far, the signs do not augur well. An incident Nov. 14, in which militiamen from the PLO's mainstream Fatah movement opened fire on the mourners' tent for Arafat — when his heir-appar- ent, Mahmoud Abbas, and Gaza strongman Mohammed Dahlan were inside — is symptomatic of a fairly widespread refusal to accept Abbas' authority. Two of Abbas's bodyguards were killed. Though it apparently wasn't an assassi- nation attempt, the shooting was meant to warn Abbas not to diverge from Arafat's hardline. The assailants shouted, "No Abbas, no Dalilan and no CIA," suggesting that some Palestinians see the two as American puppets capable of sell- ing out Palestinian interests. For his part, Abbas believes only America can deliver the goods. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wants to give Abbas every PEACE PROCESS on page 33 Arafat's Life New York/JTA The following is a time- line of the life of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat: • 1929 — Arafat is born to a family of mer- chants in Egypt (though he often claimed to have been born in Jerusalem). • 1952-1956 — Attends Cairo University, where he joins the Islamist movement known as the Muslim Brotherhood. Also organizes the Union of Palestinian Students. • 1956 — Arafat has said he fights in the Egyptian army during the Suez War, but some believe he is in Czechoslovakia, attending a Communist-sponsored student — 11/19 2004 30 congress. • 1957 — He leaves Egypt and, a year later, settles in Kuwait, where he works as an engineer. • Late 1950s — Co-founds Fatah, a Palestinian political movement dedicated ro armed struggle against Israel. • 1964 — The Palstine Liberation Organization is founded at an Arab League summit. Fatah w ill soon become its central element. • 1965 — Fatah carries out its first terrorist attack on Israel, an attempt to blow up the National Water Carrier. • 1968 — Losses the PLO inflicts on Israeli soldiers at the battle of Karameh, in Jordan, and Arafat's daring escape from the battle on a motorcycle add to his mystique and solidify his growing hold on the PLO. • 1969 — Arafat is elected chairman of the PLO's Executive Committee. • 1970 — PLO attempts to destabilize and ultimately take over Jordan prompt King Hussein to crack down on the PLO and kick them out of the country. Thousands of Palestinians are killed in what comes to be known as "Black September." Arafat choos- es Lebanon as his new base of operations. • 1972 — Palestinian terrorists kill 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics. The attack and other terrorist actions, mainly airplane hijackings, put the Palestinian cause on the international stage. • 1974 — Wearing a pistol holster, Arafat addresses the U.N. General Assembly. The assembly recognizes "the right of the Palestinian people to sovereignty and national independence" and gives the PLO observer status at the world organization. • 1982 — Israeli forces drive Arafat from Beirut, forcing him to set up his base in Tunisia.