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When The Stars Align
Dry Bones
IN A POST
ARAFAT WORLD,
THE QUESTION S
WILL THE PLO.
ABANDON ITS
CAMPAIGN OF
ANTI-ISRAELI
INCITEMENT?
PLO OFFICIALS
CLAIM THAT ISRAEL
POISONED THE
CHAIRMAN,/
AND WE JUST
GOT THE
ANSWER.
ever underestimate the possibility that coinci-
dence may create opportunity for some
progress on reducing tension between Israelis
and Palestinians. A lasting peace is not about to break
out, but at least a pause in the violence is possible —
and maybe a good deal more.
The trigger for the Palestinians is the long-awaited
change in leadership now that Yasser Arafat is out of
the picture. For the moment, a caretaker government
headed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and former
Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas seems likely, as the
various factions negotiate for the future.
It seems to be a recipe for inaction, but dramatic
action by a single bold leader could be a catalyst for
real movement.
If the Palestinians can avoid internal vio-
lence — a big if, of course — and maybe
carry out their promised local elections, they
could create a structure for making larger decisions.
In Israel, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon appears to
hold the winning hand in his play to get out of Gaza
unilaterally next year. The Knesset has given him at
least one vote of support for the plan, enough to coun-
terbalance the opposition from the settler movement
and from Likud hawks. It is hard to overestimate how
important it will be not to have the IDF tied down
protecting 7,000 settlers and inevitably angering the
vast Palestinian majority of Gam.
On the other side of the Jewish state, the security
barrier seems to be working to cut the flow of suicide
bombers from the West Bank. The need for vigilance
remains, but the easiest avenues for terrorists are being
shut down, and that will weaken their appeal to the
Arab "street" that celebrates every innocent Israeli slain.
Simultaneously, America's presidential election is set-
tled, and George W. Bush, returning for a second
term, no longer has to worry about pre-elec-
tion political concerns of alienating Jewish vot-
ers. If he wants America to get back into the
search for a long-range peace plan, he is in a
position to do that. He has reiterated his
intention to support formation of a Palestinian
state next year, an outcome that even a majori-
ty of Israelis endorse, providing Israel security
guarantees are both meaningful and recognized.
Whether because they have been cowed by
the American invasion of Iraq or because they
are coming to realize that their failure to pre-
pare for the 21st century is ultimately self-
defeating, some of the Arab and Muslim states
are talking more sensibly. Iran, for
instance, may yet agree, as Libya
did, not to work on nuclear
weapons, while even Egypt is allow-
ing occasional critical voices to surface above
the muck of anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic
rhetoric that fills its airwaves and newspapers.
Even Europe could be thinking more intelli-
gently about the need for a sustainable peace
that recognizes Israel's right to exist as a secure
Jewish state. That attitudinal shift — hastened
as fundamentalist Muslim terrorism strikes
home in instances such as the slaying of
Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh — could
lead to a constructive engagement with the Mideast.
In fact, Europe might now be able to play a leader-
ship role in helping Israel and the Palestinians get back
at least to where they were in 2000. The European
Union's Javier Solana is usefully pressing a "street
map," a set of modest changes aimed at restoring some
modicum of normalcy and trust across the security
barrier as a prelude to returning to the larger road map
Stupid Is As Stupid Does
Israel stand and seemed to worry more about
Eisenhower (whose only accomplishment, after
him being a man who takes his religion seri-
all, was leading the Allied forces in Europe dur-
ously. As if that in itself were a danger.
ing World War II). About Gerald Ford and
To wave off all conservatives as muddled
Ronald Reagan and both Bushes. And about
also ignores the fact that the most dynamic
Barry Goldwater, too; but then he really was
political movement of the last 30 years has
out of touch.
been neo-conservatism. This is a philosophy
Winning the presidency is not an IQ test.
that, by and large, was developed and nurtured
There have been some very intelligent men —
by Jews and has become a basic part of
Herbert Hoover and Woodrow Wilson come
GE ORGE
Republican core beliefs.
to mind — who were terrible presidents.
CAN TOR
For that, the neo-cons are castigated by
They were unable to articulate and act upon
Re ality
Neanderthals such as Patrick Buchanan and
the country's needs. They were clumsy at assem-
Check
Robert Novak on the right and by the left
bling political alliances. They were serenely cer-
wing of the Democratic Party. But their ideas,
tain of their own intellectual superiority.
as adapted by Al From and the Democratic Leadership
FDR, for all his Harvard degree, was regarded by
Council and transmitted to Bill Clinton, were a big
contemporaries as a bit of a lazy thinker. All the man
reason why his presidency was so widely admired.
could do was govern and inspire.
Sometimes I think it is a peculiarly Jewish trait to
Maybe it is not such a great idea to dismiss more
regard holding strong opinions as more important
than half the voters in this country as being too dumb
than knowing the facts.
to get it. That's a Michael Moore tactic, and he could-
But, I have found over the years that calling an
n't find the mainstream with a map, an OnStar system
opponent stupid is no substitute for argument, and it
and a divining rod.
is usually a sign of the speaker's discomfort at holding
I heard a few pollsters say that the antipathy towards
up his own ideas to honest scrutiny. ❑
Bush was strongest among Jews than any other group.
They refused to give him any credit for his strong pro-
EDIT ORM
r
or the ninth time in the last 14 presidential
elections, Democrats have walked away with
the taste of ashes in their mouths. May I sug-
gest that a change in tactics may be in order?
In almost every one of these campaigns, the
Republican candidate has been described either as stu-
pid or way out of the mainstream. Sometimes both.
The only exception was Richard Nixon, who was
described as the Devil.
This smug condescension is not the best way to
attract independent voters who just possibly may
resent being dismissed as hopeless idiots for even
thinking of voting Republican.
Repeatedly, I heard George W. Bush called stupid in
this last campaign. But they don't give degrees from
Harvard Business School to morons. Bush has made a
career out of playing the Texas hayseed, underestimat-
ed by his opponents, who then express great shock at
finding their faces being ground in the mud.
But I heard the same thing said about Dwight D.
George Cantor's e-mail is cantor@thejewishnews.com
devised by America, Russia, the E.U. and the United
Nations. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is talking
about a summit meeting in London next year to
kick a peace process into gear.
With a majority of Palestinians now conceding
that the four-year intifada has been a colossal mis-
take and with the terrorist-in-chief Arafat out of the
way, a door could be opening a crack. It's way too
early to celebrate, but not too early to hope. ❑
11/12
2004
37