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What's Next?
aron David
Miller had
last seen
Yasser Arafat in his
Ramallah head-
quarters two weeks
ago.
"I had seen him
six weeks earlier,
HARRY
and the physical
KIRS BAUM
change in him was
Columnist
nothing short of
traumatic," said
Miller, Seeds of Peace president and
former deputy special Middle East
coordinator at the State Department.
In August, he was combative and
focused. Last month, he lost an enor-
mous amount of weight, he could
barely stand by himself, he was not
focused, and I'm not entirely sure he
recognized me."
Miller spoke to him for a half hour.
"I made clear to him that I
thought the Israelis were in the
process of making decisions about
Gaza," said Miller, who spoke to the
Jewish News on Nov. 8. "Also, the
elections were coming up. Whether
there was a Kerry or Bush adminis-
tration, probably there would be a
more serious engagement — and it
was up to him, since he held the key
to most everything, to also make
some decisions.
"For the first time in a long time,
he didn't react," Miller said. "No
argument, no push back, no emo-
tion, nothing, which was uncharac-
teristic. It was clear to me that he was
facing some serious health crisis." -
At press time, the word on Arafat's
fate is still not clear, but Miller spoke
of what the future holds for the
Middle East region without the dom-
inating 40-year leader of the
Palestinian people.
In the short term, Abu Mazen (also
known as Mahmoud Abbas) will take
over responsibility relating to the
PLO and emerge as "the single iden-
tifiable successor to Arafat." Abu Ala,
also known as Ahmed. Qurei, will
remain as sitting prime minister.
Titles aside, the most complex
question is who will have the authori-
ty to lead, Miller said.
Because Arafat was so dominating,
institutional development in the
Harry Kirsbaums e-mail address is
hkirsbaum@thejewishnews.corn
Palestinian Authority is weak, he
explained.
"They're under occupation,
involved in a complication with the
Israelis, not to mention the opposi-
tion, Hamas, Jihad and other young
Palestinians," he said. "I call it the
Mogadishu syndrome come to
Palestine. They're guys with guns
motivated by nationalist as well as
criminal activity. They're going to be
a huge problem for anyone that
aspires to a leadership position."
Miller still suspects the succession
will be bloodless, reasonably smooth,
and if Abbas and Qurei take over, the
Israelis and Americans will have two
pragmatic moderates to deal with.
The best way for Israel and the
United States to empower a
Palestinian prime minister is "not to
embrace him, but create a situation
where he is delivering to the
Palestinian public what they need,"
Miller said. "Delivering things like
freedom of movement, end of clo-
sures and land confiscations, with-
drawal of Israeli forces at least to
positions before the intifada began
and facilitating elections, which is an
extremely important point."
But how can the moderates keep
Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the rest of
the terrorist groups in check?
Take away Hamas' capacity to
deliver services and benefits to the
Palestinian public, by making the
P.A. more than the payer of salaries
to the Palestinian people, he said.
Then take away the single greatest
source of Hamas' strength: the anger
and disillusionment of the Palestinian
public by creating at least the
prospect of the end of the occupation
— starting with Gaza. Ultimately, the
moderates will have to be frank with
Hamas.
"They're going to have to say,
look, you want to become a politi-
cal party in Palestine? Fine. Claim
your views politically? Fine. Want to
go out and compete for votes? Fine.
But not via the gun,'" he said.
Miller predicted: "Something
important is about to happen. "
"For the first time in 40 years, one
man who has dominated the national
movement on the Palestinian side is
no longer capable of exercising
power. That is going to play itself out
over time in many ways that you and
I will not be able to predict." Li
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