Analysis

Fire Fight

In showdown over referendum, Sharon faces gravest political test.

LESLIE SUSSER

Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

W

create a wider consensus around
disengagement and will answer
critics who claim Sharon has no
mandate for such a radical move.
In the run-up to the Knesset
vote, the settlers will make a
supreme effort to convince
Likud legislators to insist on a
referendum and refuse to vote
for disengagement unless Sharon
gives way.
Whichever way it turns out,
they argue, a referendum will
help them cool tempers among
the settler population; it also will
make it easier to persuade
Orthodox soldiers to obey orders
to evacuate settlers despite a
recent rabbinical ruling that they
should refuse to do so.

ith opposition mount-
ing among settlers
and in his own Likud
Party, Ariel Sharon's political
future and the fate of his plan to
withdraw from the Gaza Strip
and northern West Bank may be
decided in the Knesset next
week.
The Israeli prime minister
hopes to win a decisive majority
in the Oct. 26 vote on his disen-
gagement plan, laying to rest the
debate over its legitimacy and
blocking growing pressure for a
nationwide referendum.
But a victory is not a foregone
conclusion — and if he loses, it's
Critical Vote
difficult to see how Sharon can
Another factor that could upset
continue as prime minister.
Sharon's calculations is the state
On the face of it, Sharon
Protesters
demonstrate
against
Prime
Minister
Ariel
Sarons
disengagement
plan
in
Tel
Aviv
on
Oct.
14.
budget: A budget vote is sched-
would seem to be assured of a
uled for the week after the dis-
comfortable majority. As things
engagement ballot. Labor and
stand, he can count on a total of
other
opposition
parties,
which support Sharon on
Pressure Building
65-69 votes in the 120-member Knesset: 20-25
disengagement,
oppose
his
economic policies and
But Likud pressure for a referendum is welling up.
votes in Likud, 21 from Labor, 15 from Shinui, six
are
certain
to
nix
the
budget.
Among the party heavyweights in favor are Finance
from Yahad and two from breakaway legislators.
If the Likud rebels add their votes against, the
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister
Of the remaining 51-55 Knesset members, up to
budget
won't pass. That could set off a process lead-
Silvan Shalom and Education Minister Limor
35, including as many as 20 Likud rebels, seem set
ing
to
Knesset
elections next spring, before disen-
Livnat. After meeting settler leaders over the week-
to vote against. Another 21 legislators, including 16
gagement
begins.
end, Livnat declared that a referendum was neces-
from fervently Orthodox parties eyeing spots in a
According to Israeli law, failure to pass the budget
sary to prevent a serious split in Israeli society —
future Sharon coalition, are likely to abstain.
by
next April automatically will trigger an election.
even, "God forbid, a civil war."
If those figures hold up, Sharon will silence calls
That
would delay implementation of the disengage-
Livnat is proposing that the Knesset vote go ahead
for a referendum, open up coalition-building possi-
ment
plan, but also might cost some of the rebels
as scheduled, but with a rider that makes it mean-
bilities and secure both his own political future and
their
Knesset
seats — a prospect that might give
ingless: that it be contingent on the results of a
the road to disengagement.
them
cold
feet.
But there's a catch: A majority in the Likud's
future referendum.
Sharon could still press for a Knesset vote
The mounting pressure led to a Likud faction
Knesset faction is trying to foist a referendum on
unlinked
to any referendum commitment. But even
meeting Oct. 18 in which the referendum issue
Sharon. If they succeed, the Oct. 26 Knesset vote,
if
he
wins,
and even if he manages to pass the budg-
topped
the
agenda.
Most
of
the
faction,
even
some
rather than being a defining moment for disengage-
et, his opponents are not going to melt away.
of Sharon's supporters, backed the idea.
ment, will be reduced to a virtually irrelevant
Sharon therefore could give way and agree to a
Some Likud legislators may condition their
sideshow. The final decision on whether or not to go
referendum-linked
Knesset vote — but that could
Knesset vote on a commitment from Sharon to hold
ahead with the disengagement plan effectively will
stymie
his
disengagement
plan and leave him weak-
a referendum. If he won't budge, and if enough
have been removed from the Knesset and handed to
ened
and
without
credibility.
Likud legislators vote against, Sharon conceivably
the people.
Worst of all, he could lose the Knesset vote and
Sharon sees the referendum idea as a ruse to delay
could lose the crucial ballot.
find
himself staring into a political abyss.
Casting even more of a shadow on the Knesset
implementation of the disengagement plan. He
What
makes Sharon's position especially poignant
vote is the fact that President Moshe Katsav also
argues that having been elected prime minister, he
is the fact that it's his own Likud faction that is
has a mandate to conduct Israeli policy as he sees fit. favors a referendum. The president has no formal
Referendum advocates know it would take months political power in Israel and rarely expresses an opin- threatening to bring him down. The fate of disen-
gagement, then, could hinge on whether Sharon can
ion on contentious issues, but when he does his
if not years to legislate the ballot, and will try to use
outmaneuver the rebels within his own party.
the legislative process to delay disengagement indefi-
views have moral weight.
Katsav argues that a successful referendum will
nitely, Sharon says.

JN

10/22
2004

37