Iraq's Influence
In any case, Israel does not expect to implement a
withdrawal for another year — and by that time,
whatever negotiating victories Sharon wins from
Bush this week could be faded memories in the case
of a protracted Iraq war.
Iraq unrest may boost Sharon visit, but it bodes ill for Israel.
Iraq Connection?
RON KAMPEAS .
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
7,
Washington
he conflagration in Iraq is likely to draw
Israel and the United States closer for
now, but a long-term war could riddle the
alliance with political land mines.
The uncertainty flourishing in Iraq is reinforcing
American reliance on its closest regional ally, but a
failure in Iraq could lead to a range of dire outcomes
for Israel, including a new U.S. isolationism that
would embolden radicals in the region.
On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's
visit to the White House on Wednesday, April 14,
"the stakes are very high for Israel," said Steven
Spiegel, a scholar with the Israel Policy Forum.
"Should Iraq descend into chaos, instability, an anti-
President Bush escorts Prime Minister Sharon- after a
Israel government — that would be a serious blow
joint
statement to reporters at the White House on
for Israel."
Wednesday,
April 14.
In the short term, Sharon had a clear advantage in
his meeting with President Bush on Wednesday.
and around Hebron. In exchange, Bush was to get a
Bush is under fire from Democrats and some
letter committing Israel to the U.S.-led road map ini-
Republicans for a perceived failure to directly address
tiative, which guarantees Palestinian statehood.
the mounting casualties in Iraq, and needs whatever
Bush does not want to totally alieriate his Arab
Middle East success he can achieve.
allies;
he has sandwiched Sharon's visit between meet-
"It put all the more importance on a successful
ings
with
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and
meeting between Sharon and the president," said
Jordanian
King Abdullah II. In addition, Palestinian
Edward Walker, a former assistant secretary of state
Foreign
Minister
Nabil Sha'ath is meeting Secretary
for Near Eastern affairs who travels frequently to the
of
State
Colin
Powell
in Washington next week.
region as president of the Middle East Institute
After
meeting
with
Mubarak,
Bush insisted any
think-tank. "The last thing the president needs is any
Gaza
withdrawal
should
be
in
the
context of the road
more problems in the region."
map.
"The
point
is
that
the
decision
doesn't replace
Sharon presented Bush with his final plan for a
the
path
toward
the
establishment
of
a Palestinian
unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and
state
that
will
provide
hope
for
the
Palestinian
people
parts of the West Bank. The subject of intense U.S.-
and
provide
continuity,
and
put
the
institutions
in
Israeli negotiation for weeks, Sharon appeared 'ready
place
necessary
for
a
state
to
evolve,"
Bush
said
after
to extract major concessions.
meeting Mubarak on Monday at the president's
Crawford, Texas, ranch.
Assurances
Still, Iraq's deterioration leaves Bush vulnerable to
Sharon said last week that he will evacuate only four
Sharon's
demands. "Sharon is in a stronger position
West Bank settlements in the initial stages of the
now
that
Bush is in trouble in Iraq," said Raymond
withdrawal. At the same time, Israeli officials suggest-
Tanter,
a
Reagan-era member of the National
ed that Bush was ready to give assurances that Israel
Security
Council
and then a University of Michigan
will not have to return to its Green Line border that
professor
now
working
with the Washington
preceded the 1967 Six-Day War.
Institute
for
Near
East
Policy.
"The last thing Bush
Last month, senior U.S. officials adamantly reject-
needs
is
trouble
from
Sharon
in
a political year."
ed any such recognition of Israel's claim to parts of
However,
the
United
States
refused
an Israeli
the West Bank. Then, two weeks ago, U.S. officials
request
to
come
out
explicitly
against
the Palestinian
said they were considering expressing support for
demand
that
refugees
from
the
1948
war,
and their
Israel's claim to three West- Bank settlement blocs —
descendants,
be
allowed
to
return
to
Israel.
On the
provided that Sharon's withdrawal was far-reaching.
other
hand,
the
United
States
has
signed
on
whole-
Now it appears Bush told Sharon that he supports
heartedly
to
Israel's
West
Bank
security
barrier
after
some Israeli annexation in exchange even for a mini-
Israel
adjusted
the
route
to
meet
U.S.
concerns.
mal West Bank withdrawal.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said last week
Sharon has said Israel will permanently claim five
that
Israel would suffer no deductions this year from
settlement blocs: Ma'aleh Adumim, Givat Ze'ev and
loan
guarantees because of the barrier. Last year, the
Gush Etzion, all bedroom communities to Jerusalem;
fence
cost Israel almost $30 0 million in guarantees.
.0,4N
Ariel, in the central West Bank; and settlements in
.
4/16
2004
18
Violence in Iraq intensified after U.S.-led occupation
troops detained an Iraqi cleric who had expressed sol-
idarity with Hamas after Israel assassinated the ter-
rorist group's chief. Though there was not necessarily
a connection, the chronology still could become fod-
der for those who argue that close ties to Israel harms
U.S. interests in the region.
Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the
Analysis of Global Security, worried that the
American public could become increasingly isolation-
ist if Iraq becomes a quagmire.
"If in the long run there is a sense that Iraq has
been a failure, it could affect the mood of the
American people when it comes to the Middle East,
with more and more voices like Pat Buchanan push-
ing neo-isolationism," he said.
Another casualty, Luft said, would be Bush admin-
istration plans to use Iraqi oil to counter the Saudis'
long-standing hegemony over global energy policy.
When you don't have security in Iraq, oil companies
don't want to invest," he said. "America thought it
would be less dependent on the Saudis; now it could
be more dependent on the Saudis."
Tanter had hoped to see the- revival of a pre-1948
oil pipeline from Mosul in Iraq to Haifa in Israel —
though the provisional leaders the United States and
its allies picked to run Iraq said from the start that
they were not considering closer ties to Israel.
"Some of us who talked about a new Middle East,
who assumed that the road to Jerusalem went
through Baghdad — the fighting puts a damper on
that," Tanter said.
Perhaps the most fearsome outcome would be an
increased radicalization of the region. Iran reportedly
is backing Moqtada Al-Sadr, the Shi'ite cleric at the
center of much of the anti-U.S. insurgency, and it _
would be emboldened by any dilution of U.S. influ-
ence and prestige. So, too, would the Palestinians,
Spiegel said.
"If the United States appears to fail in Iraq, it will
have a highly deleterious impact on Israel's standing.
It will give the Palestinians less incentive to give up
on the intifada," said Spiegel, who teaches political
science at UCLA.
U.S. efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks
— already in abeyance after the failure of the "road ,
map" peace plan — likely would flag even further,
Spiegel said.
Another concern for Israel, Walker said, was the
threat to relatively moderate Arab governments that a
routing of the United States would impose.
"For the Jordanians, a meltdown in Iraq would be
the worst thing," he said. "King Abdullah will make
it very clear to the president that it is imperative for
the United States to stay the course. He cannot allow
the situation to deteriorate so that it becomes an
infection." ❑
For the latest reports, go to vvvvvv.jevvish.com