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January 30, 2004 - Image 59

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 2004-01-30

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

Wedding And Party Specialists
Flowers For All Occasions

G

OF NATURE
T
FLOWERS

Super Bowl
Predictor

s Super
Bowl
Sunday
approach-
es, anyone within
range of TV busi-
ness networks will
have at some time
been introduced to
HARRY
the Big Game's rela-
KI RS BAUM
tionship with the
Staff W-iter
Dow Jones
Industrial Average.
The theory goes something like this:
If a team from the NFC conference
or an original NFL team wins the
Super Bowl, at year's end the Dow
Jones will close higher that year.
If a team from the AFC conference
wins, you'd better start unloading your
stock portfolio.
Some consider it merely a coinci-
dence, but the Super Bowl winner has
accurately predicted the stock market
27 out of 37 years or 73 percent.
There's an equally well-known theo-

Last Call columnist Harry Kirsbaum
is a former commodities trader and
Chicago bartender.

STATE

(248) 559-5424
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29115 Greenfield, Southfield, MI 48076

ry among stockbrokers and traders
that as the month of January goes, so
goes the year. Since 1967, the year of
the first Super Bowl, this "January
Effect" has been accurate in predicting
the stock market 28 out of 37 years or
75.7 percent of the time.
Here's where it gets fun. Suppose all
previous 37 Super Bowls were played
in February. How would the January
Effect theory hold up in predicting
the Super Bowl winner?
Does 78.4 percent sound good to
you?
Super Bowl =NM will be played
in February for only the second time
in the event's history. (The events of
9-11 postponed Super Bowl XXXVI
until Feb. 3, 2002.)
I know that betting is illegal, and
I'm not suggesting that you seek a
bookie or use the rent money to make
a* bet. I'm a "writer," not a statistician.
I'm just suggesting that if the Dow
Jones closes above 10409.85 on
Friday, Jan. 30, there's a 78.4 percent
chance the NFC's Carolina Panthers
(6.5 point underdogs in Vegas) will
beat the AFC's New England Patriots
on Sunday.

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T1-€E UCTIMATE E3.1TERTANME1,11" EXPERIENICE.

This chart shows historical data comparing Super Bowl winners and Dow Jones
Industrial averages for the past 10 years.
Go to wwvv.detroitjewishnews.com to see the complete chart.

Year

1993 I
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

DJINDX
First day
of Jan.

DJINDX
Last day
of Jan.

Winning Super
Bowl Team

3309.20
3756.60
3838.48
5177.45
6442.49
7965.28
9393.83
11357.51
10646.15
10073.40.
8607.52
10409.85

3310.03
3978.36
3843.86
5395.30
6813.09
7906.50
9358.83
10940.53
10887.36
9920.00
8053.81

Dallas - NFC
Dallas - NFC
S.F. -*NFC
Dallas - NFC
G.B. - NFC
Den. - AFC
Den. - AFC
St.Louis - NFC
Ravens - NFL
N.Eng. - AFC
T. Bay - NFC
???

DJINDX
Last day
of year

3754.00
3835.11
5117.12
6448.27
7908.25
9181.43
11497.12
10787.99
10021.57
8341.63
10453.92

* Bold numbers in first two columns are correct January Effect predictors of
Super Bowl winners.
** Bold numbers in last column are correct January Effect predictors of the
Stock Market.
*** Bold team names in third column are correct predictors of the stock market.

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2N

1/30

2004

59

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