By The Numbers
Jewish population study's chairman speaks out to explain methodology and findings.
increase in the interviews conducted.
didn't know who their constituencies
For the 1990 survey, there were 2,460
were
and
what
constituencies
they
had
Special to the Jewish News
interviews, compared to 4,500 conduct-
to serve," said Berman. As the central
ed for the 2000-01 survey.
Jewish communal fund-raisers and fun-
andell "Bill" Berman is a
"For each cohort [subgroup] of the
ders, such knowledge is critical.
demographic wonder in
study to be sound it must have 300 peo-
For example, Berman said, the num-
many ways.
ple" he explained, noting that this was a
ber of contributions to the local
fault of the 1990 survey, which did not
Federation
campaign
has
dropped
from
At 85; the Franklin resident is razor
have enough interviews.
22,000
donors
to
14,000
over
the
past
sharp, vital and actively engaged in caus-
Another point of contention were the
two
decades.
Such
changes
in
many
es as he has been for decades. A former
screening questions"
communities made
president not only of the Jewish
(see "Querying Respon-
a national overview
Federation of Metropolitan Detroit, but
dents" below) to identi-
necessary.
of the Council of Jewish Federations
fy
qualified respondents.
According to
(CJF) — which served all of North
"We
have been
Berman,
5
million
America — he is one of diaspora Jewry's
severely
criticized, say-
phone
calls
were
preeminent Jewish leaders.
ing
we
have
under-
made
nationally
to
His latest demographic wonder,
counted. I don't care,"
reach 4,500 respon-
_ National Jewish Population Survey
insisted Berman. He
dents who "were
(NJPS) 2000-01, for which he serves as
freely admits there are
Jewish by our defi-
chairman, brought him to Temple
other ways to count
Emanu-El in Oak Park on Oct. 19 to be nition" and would
Jews,
but he stands by
take
the
time
—
part of its "Both Sides" series. Berman
the
methodology
of the
averaging
42
min-
was a co-presenter with Kurt Metzger,
survey.
utes
—
to
complete
director of the Michigan Metropolitan
"Our focus is on who
Information Center (MIMIC) at Wayne the phone survey.
are the federations' con-
"We used a random
State University.
stituencies," he main-
digit dialer and put
Holding up one of the 5,000 print
Mandell
"Bill"
Berman,
chair-
tained. "Trends have
all the phone num-
copies of the study released in
man of the United Jewish
some
meaning, but we
bers
in
a
database
so
September, Berman frequently used the
Communities' National Jewish
want
to
know who we
anyone
can
fall
out"
term "controversial" to describe it.
Population Study.
have
to
serve,
who we
and
be
called.
While obviously not the term he would
are serving and who we
have chosen, Berman undertook a spirit-
are underserving."
ed explanation and defense regarding
Driving Up Costs
Metzger, who once worked on the
the criticisms of its methodology and
U.S.
Census, said that every group
Berman acknowledged the controversies
findings.
believes
it is undercounted, and often
surrounding
the
timing
of
the
calls
(dur-
"I haven't spoken publicly on this
are
right
as "it is all in the way the ques-
ing
the
height
of
the
Bush-Gore
presi-
issue for a year," Berman told the audi-
tions
are
asked."
dential
election
campaign)
and
pay-
ence of nearly 100. "I'm here to tell how
The experience the NJPS had trying
it all happened and tell why we needed it." ments to participants ($25 was used as
to get responses is common. Metzger
an incentive as they struggled to attain
Berman explained that Jewish corn-
explained that all polling groups are
the needed respondents). While they
munity demographic studies didn't
finding "it is very difficult to get people
necessitated more calls and increased
begin until the 1980s, and the first
to respond" to phone surveys, and
costs,
he
doesn't
believe
they
had
an
NJPS was undertaken by the CJF from
because of Caller ID, to even answer the
impact
on
the
findings.
1987-1990, while he was president.
phone. This has driven up costs.
The
cost
also
has
been
an
issue.
The
(The CJF later merged with the United
After reviewing selected survey find-
1990 survey cost $500,000, while the
Jewish Appeal and United Israel Appeal
ings with the audience, he concluded
2000-01 survey cost about $6 million.
to become the United Jewish
that, overall, the results of the recent sur-
Berman and NJPS trustees co-chair
Communities, which undertook the lat-
vey were not much different from those
Edward Kaplan of the Washington,
est study.)
in 1990.
D.C., federation raised the money "the
Berman took a particular interest in
"We've presented our results, but the
hard
way,"
Berman
said,
because
"there
the project, serving as its chair and
analysis
is clearly not done," Berman
were
no
plaques
to
put
names
on."
accessing the resources of the Mandell L.
said.
"We
need to do our own in-depth
Noting
his
involvement
in
the
1990
Berman Center at the North American
analysis. Every month we will be pub-
study, Berman says one reason the cost
Jewish Data Bank at the City University
lishing a paper analyzing the results. The
of New York (CUNY). "Today, there are was lower was that "soft money" relating
first one will be on Jewish philanthro-
to telephones, office space and other
80 community studies together with the
py," underscoring a major purpose of
national studies in a database at Brandeis such items were not counted. Another
the survey.
reason
was
inflation
over
the
past
10
University," Berman said.
This doesn't mean Berman and the
years.
But
the
main
reason
was
the
"The federations began to realize they
DON COHEN
Iff
"
10/24
2003
30
UJC didn't take the criticisms seriously.
"This last year we re-analyzed this
study to be sure we could release it into
the world and be sure we were not mis-
leading people," Berman said. UJC
brought in Bernard J. Shapiro, principal
and vice-chancellor emeritus of
Montreal's McGill University, as a spe-
cial consultant and hired a team of non-
Jewish demographers. This re-analysis
delayed the release for almost a year.
"Nothing works the way you think it
is going to work," admitted Berman, in
response to a question about the calls
made. Nonetheless, he is proud of help-
ing to create a useful document he
believes will become more useful as the
wealth of information is increasingly
analyzed and published.
For Robert Sedler, who teaches law at
Wayne State University, the results show
the strength and success of American Jewry.
"The significance is not that it tells us
that the number of Jews is not growing;
we know it," said Sedler, noting that
Jewish birth rates are comparable to
non-Jews who also have higher levels of
education, graduate degrees and profes-
sional occupations.
"Though our numbers are declining,
our influence is not declining. Our dis-
proportionate influence politically, cul-
turally and economically is a result. We
are a very influential group and I see it
as a strength. Jews are important." 111
Querying
Respondents
Anyone who answered positively
to any of the four questions was
considered Jewish for the purposes
of the survey:
1. What is your religion, if any?
2. Do you have a Jewish mother
or a Jewish father?
3. Were you raised Jewish?
4. Do you consider yourself
Jewish for any reason?
Extensive resources on the survey,
including the entire report, the list
of questions, a PowerPoint explana-
tion of the report and analyses, are
available on the UJC website at
-wvv-w ujc.org/njps