Too Confident?
On the 30th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, some wt a . rn of renewed complacency.
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
T
hirty years after the trau-
matic Yom Kippur War,
Israel's military superiority
over the Arabs is greater
that Israel is now better off strategical-
ly than at any time in its history, the
military analyst for the Ma'ariv news-
paper, Amir Rapaport, observed wryly
that "the last time we boasted that
things were never better was in the
autumn of 1973."
One of the Middle East's main
problems is its instability, Rapaport
noted. "What seems crystal clear today
could change totally tomorrow," he
warned.
The report highlights the fact that in
the recent land war in Iraq, the United
States and its allies needed just four
military divisions to defeat 23 Iraqi
divisions. That, the report says, drove
home to the Arab states the huge dis-
victory enhanced Israel's own deterrent
posture.
Shlomo Brom, a former deputy head
of planning in the Israel Defense
Forces and one of the Jaffee Center
report's authors, observes that Israel's
standing army is not only far bigger
than the American force used in Iraq,
but also has many of the same battle
systems.
Therefore, Brom concludes, the one
remaining eastern-front foe — Syria,
which is weaker in land forces than
Iraq was — "would have no chance in
a military confrontation with Israel."
Brom says the war also helped
Israel's strategic posture by enhancing
American deterrence, underlining the
than ever.
In its annual report, Tel Aviv
University's prestigious Jaffee Center
for Strategic Studies cites the quality of
Israel's weapons systems and the U.S.-
led victory in Iraq as reasons for a
major strategic shift in Israel's favor.
But the report acknowledges that
Israel still faces major threats from ter-
rorism and nonconventional weapons.
And some analysts warn that the
report's talk of Israel's superiority and
strategic b gains could lead to the same
type of complacency that cost Israel
so dearly in the 1973 war, when Israel
was caught unprepared by an
Egyptian and Syrian attack and suf-
fered heavy losses in the first few days
of fighting.
After the initial setbacks, Israel's
ultimate victory — the war ended
only after the Soviet Union threat-
ened to intervene to stop Israeli tanks
from rumblinab into Cairo and
Damascus — was as impressive as its
success in previous engagements with
the Arab nations.
Still, Arab countries consider the
1973 war a monumental victory, and
many Israelis consider it a defeat of
sorts, primarily because it punctured
Israel's aura of invincibility following
Israeli soldiers take cover on the Golan Heights as Syrian planes start
the 1967 Six-Day War. The shock of
strafing runs during the Yom Kippur War.
the Yom" Kippur War left deep scars on
the national psyche that affect Israelis
Arab world's fragmentation and
parity between the quality of modern
even today.
increasing pressure on Iran, Syria and
Western armies and their own.
Foremost among the scars is a gnaw-
Hezbollah to stop fomenting violence
That has two major implications for
ing anxiety that the national leadership Israel, the report says:
against Israel and the West.
is so locked into a "conceptzia" — a
But the Jaffee researchers acknowl-
• By defeating Iraq on the battle-
shared strategic concept that deter-
edge that some of Israel's new strategic
field, the United States wiped out the
mines the leaders' worldview — that
gains depend an whether the United
biggest Arab army in the Middle East
they may be misreading reality and
States manages to stabilize the regime
and nullified the possibility of an east-
ignoring opportunities for peace.
in Iraq or whether it gets bogged
ern-front coalition of Iraq, Syria and
Some now warn that the assessment in Jordan, united against Israel;
down. If the latter happens, some of
the Jaffee Center report reflects a simi-
Israel's gains could be wiped out, they
• Since Israel has many of the same
lar, misplaced confidence.
say.
capabilities as the U.S. military — not
just American or Western weaponry,
but superior control-and-command
Remembering 1973
IDF Opportunity
systems, real-time intelligence gather-
Commenting on the report's claim
Still, Brom maintains that the eradica-
ing facilities and so on — the allied
10/ 3
2003
22
tion of the eastern threat provides a
rare opportunity to downsize the
Israeli army. There is "a window of
opportunity to review the IDF's real
needs," he says.
Brom says the Israel Defense Forces
should now be asking whether it really
needs so many tank divisions. And he
suggests the IDF could save huge sums
by shutting down pfoduction and
development of Israel's own Merkava 4
tank, considered by many experts to
be the most advanced of its kind in
the world.
The defense establishment remains
unconvinced, however, arguing that
scaling down land-based forces could
encourage an enemy to attack. Thus,
despite its cost and the cuts in next
year's defense budget, the Merkava
project still is on.
The Jaffee report suggests that,
given the changed strategic situation,
Israel should focus less on threats from
conventional weapons and more on
terrorism and nonconventional war-
fare. Israel should brace for terrorism
and spend more on developing sophis-
ticated methods to fight it, the report
suggests.
The report also sees no end in sight
to the Palestinian intifizda (uprising).
On the contrary, Brom says,
Palestinian society is in an advanced
state of disintegration, and therefore
no Palestinian government is ready to
act against terrorism.
That, some left-wing Israelis warn,
is precisely the type of "conceptzia"
that prevents the Israeli government
from seizing the initiative and making
the Palestinians a generous peace offer
that might induce them to lay down
their arms.
But Brom warns that the Israeli gov-
ernment is not prepared, as long as
terror attacks continue, to take steps
like dismantling settlements in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip. "Only the
U.S. could do something," Brom says,
"but its commitment is low."
Al Qaida
The second big issue for Israel is non-
conventional weapons. According to
Ephraim Kam, Jaffee's deputy director,
Iran is only three to four years away
from producing a nuclear bomb and is
emerging as Israel's "next main prob-