Analysis
What's Next?
Looking beyond the summit: Does peace have a chance?
LESLIE SUSSER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
A
double dose of optimism and skepticism
led up to this week's summit at the Red
Sea resort of Aqaba, but what really mat-
ters is what comes next.
Hardened by past failures, Israelis and Palestinians
alike recognize that there is still a long way to go,
and a lot that could still go wrong after Presiderit
Bush's meeting June 4 with Israeli Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart,
Mahmoud Abbas.
There are, for example, still dozens of warnings of
planned terrorist attacks, and a new round of sui-
cide bombings could quickly derail a reactivated
peace process.
And even if the parties are able to make the first
moves Bush is asking of them, they will encounter
major problems down the road: Will they be able to
agree on the final size of the Palestinian state, on the
extent of its sovereignty, on Jerusalem and the
refugee question?
And-what about the rejectionists on both sides?
Will the Palestinians have the power to collect illegal
weapons held by Hamas and Islamic Jihad? Will
Israel be able to dismantle settlements? In other
words, can Abbas face down the fundamentalists
and can Sharon deal with the settlers?
One far-right Israeli Cabinet minister, Avigdor
Lieberman of National Union, warns that "any
attempt to dismantle settlements will lead to civil war."
Despite all the questions, there was a fresh breath
of optimism in the air this week. Israeli generals are
talking about the end of the nearly three-year-long
Palestinian uprising. Palestinians are delighted by
Sharon's unprecedented use of the term "occupation"
and are looking forward to the occupation's end.
And most importantly, both sides have been
sobered by what they see as the American adminis-
tration's newfound determination to put an end to
the long conflict between them.
Indicative of the new mood, the Israeli stock mar-
ket, sluggish during the intifada (uprising) years, has
been skyrocketing.
U.S. Commitment
The Aqaba summit, designed to jump-start a new
peace process, was first and foremost a statement
about the degree of American commitment. Bush,
who had carefully kept his distance from the treach-
erous Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is now making clear
that he intends to play an active role and to exert
heavy pressure wherever necessary.
On June 2, Bush vowed to "put in as much time
w*.W14..,7
4
6/ 6
2003
16
For Mideast updates, log on to www.jewish.com
as necessary" to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Bush made his comments in France before leaving
for the Middle East, where he attended a summit in
Egypt with Arab leaders on Tuesday, and met with
Sharon and Abbas in Jordan on Wednesday.
At the meeting Tuesday with leaders from Egypt,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Palestinian
Authority at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheik,
Bush said Israel "must deal with the settlements."
Israel must "make sure there is continuous territory
that the Palestinians can call home."
These comments appeared to back up statements
he made in late May, when he assured the French
progress. "I hope that as we move forward in this
process down the road map, both Egypt and Jordan
will see the merit at an appropriate moment to
return their ambassadors," Secretary of State Colin
Powell said Tuesday in Egypt.
At the Aqaba summit on Wednesday, both Sharon
and Abbas made far-reaching commitments.
Abbas announced an end to the armed intifada
against Israel. "We will spare no effort, using all our
resources, to end the militarization of the intifada,
and we will succeed," he declared. "The armed
intifada must end and we must resort to peaceful
means in our quest to end the occupation."
Sharon came out strongly in favor of Palestinian
statehood, and promised to start removing what he
called "unauthorized" settler outposts. "It is in Israel's
interest not to govern the Palestinians, but for the
Palestinians to govern themselves in their own state,"
he said. And he added that Israel was fully aware of
the Palestinians' need for contiguous territory on the
West Bank for that state to be viable.
Bush carefully listed the major commitments
made by both parties, and made it clear that he
would hold them accountable. "These leaders of
conscience have made their declarations today in the
cause of peace," he said. "We expect both parties to
keep their promises."
To underline just how serious he is, Bush is sending
in a team of about a dozen monitors, mostly Central
Intelligence Agency officials, to determine where the
parties are carrying out their road map obligations
and where they are not. And the word is that any side
that creates obstacles will be publicly rebuked.
US. Envoy
President Bush looks on as Ariel Sharon, right, and
Mahmoud Abbas shake hands June 4 after their sum-
mit at Jordanian King Abdullah's palace in the
Jordanian Red Sea resort of Aqaba.
newspaper Le Figaro that he would have no com-
punction about pressuring Sharon. "If I were afraid
to take the decisions necessary to move the process
forward, I wouldn't have gone on this trip to the
Middle East," he declared.
A few days earlier, in a private conversation at the
White House, Bush was reportedly asked how he
could be sure Sharon would go along with him and
make the necessary concessions. "Because he owes
me," the president replied confidently.
Indeed, Sharon has a lot to thank the American
president for. The American-led war in Iraq removed
a major strategic threat to Israel; the United States
allowed Sharon virtually a free hand in fighting
Palestinian terror; and in the run-up to Israel's
acceptance of the American-inspired road map to
peace, Bush gave the green light for a billion-dollar
defense deal under which Israel is to supply India
with state-of-the-art Phalcon air-mounted radar sys-
tems.
At Tuesday's summit, Arab states agreed to Bush's
request to back the road map. The president is also
asking Egypt and Jordan to send ambassadors back
to Israel as soon as there are tangible signs of
The president also named John Wolf to be special
U.S. Middle East envoy to help implement the road
map. A team headed by Wolf, the U.S. assistant sec-
retary of state for nonproliferation, was slated to
arrive in the Middle East following the summit.
Wolf is relatively unknown, and has little experience
in the Middle East conflict.
As far as Abbas went in condemning terror and
violence against "Israelis everywhere," he failed to
commit to the notion of Israel as a Jewish state. This
led to renewed right-wing criticism of the entire
road map approach.
Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset's Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee, says unless such a
commitment is forthcoming, Israel should refuse to
move into the second phase of the road map, which
leads to the creation of a Palestinian mini-state. Abbas,
meanwhile, has said it will take weeks before Palestinian
security forces are in a position to keep the peace.
Still, the Palestinians have at least three very good
reasons to achieve and maintain a cease-fire:
• The weakness of the post-Iraq Arab world.
• Sharon's planned security fence, which would
leave them only small, truncated areas of the West
Bank if they don't cut a deal soon.
• And the fact that a triumphal George Bush is
ready to lean on Israel.
If the Palestinians keep the cease-fire, and Bush
pressures Israel to make major reciprocal moves,
Sharon could be the one leader strong enough to
make concessions and carry Israel with him. I I