Road Map, Road Kill

Philadelphia
he signs of an impending
sellout are all too obvious.
Statements coming out of
Washington confirm the
fears of many that the nightmare sce-
nario envisioned by many friends of
Israel in this country is about to
become reality. It goes something like
this:
.
After American forces finish off
Saddam Hussein's regime and begin
their attempt to transform Iraq into
the first moderate Arab democracy,
the State Department will swing into
action to revive the "peace process"
between Israel and the Palestinians.
The American need to soothe the
wounded pride of the Arab world and
repair damage to our relations with
Europe and the United Nations will
lead to a revived focus on the Middle
East "peace process," a phrase that can
be loosely translated as the system by
which the Jews are made to make
concessions that endanger them in
exchange for further Arab threats to
Israel's existence.
The so-called "road map" put for-
ward by the diplomatic "Quartet" of
the United States, the United
Nations, the European Union and
Russia will then be presented to both
the Palestinian Authority and to
Israel.

T

Jonathan S. Tobin is executive editor
of the Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia.
His e-mail address is
jtobin@jewishexponent.com

Curved Grading

This scheme makes tangible demands for
Israel to make concessions on its security,
such as loosening the Israel Defense
Forces' grip on the territories and granti-
ng the terror-infested P.A. more power
and control.
The Palestinians will then be asked to
increase their rather intangible efforts to
halt terrorism and to make progress
toward "reform" of their kleptocracy.
This will lead to the setting of a date for
the declaration of a Palestinian state with
full sovereignty.
- In the nightmare, the United States
will lean heavily on Israel to pull back its
forces and prepare to completely surren-
der strategic lands where hundreds of
thousands of Jews live. At the same time,
in the same way that the Oslo accords
were enforced before they went up in a
cloud of Palestinian explosions, the mon-
itoring of Palestinian "progress" will be a
lot more lenient.
Despite Yasser Arafat's continuing con-
trol of the terror and crime syndicate that
we laughingly call the representative
body of the Palestinian people, the ascen-
dancy of Mahmoud Abbas — aka "Abu
Mazen the Holocaust denier" — to the
position of P.A. prime minister will
enable the United States to pretend that
democracy, peace and goodness reigns in
Ramallah.
The next step will be to force Israel to
accept a virtual rerun of the same failed
peace proposal that then-Prime Minister
Ehud Barak offered to Arafat in July of
2000: half of Jerusalem and all of Judea
and Samaria in exchange for peace. If the

100 Bin Ladens On The Way?

Philadelphia

IV

hen it is over, if it is
over, this war [in Iraq]
will have horrible conse-
quences" lamented
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak the
other day. "Terrorism will be aggravat-
ed," he predicted. "Terrorist organiza-
tions will be united. Instead of one
bin Laden, there will be.100 bin
Ladens. Everything will be insecure."
Many others have echoed this dire
prediction.
• Mohammed Adwan, Jordan's
information minister, "Rising militan-
cy is going to be very hard to con-
tain.'

Daniel Pipes is director of the Middle
East Forum. His e-mail address is
pipes@MEForum.org

• Ghazi Qusaibi, former Saudi
ambassador to Britain, "There may be
more terrorist attacks and violent dis-
plays of anger."
• Magnus Ranstorp of St. Andrews
University (Scotland), "This war is a
major recruiting sergeant garnering
foot soldiers for bin Laden."
• Nubar Hovsepian of the
University of Pennsylvania, "1991
produced one bin Laden and 2003
will produce many more. ),
Actually, the precise opposite is
more likely to happen: The war in
Iraq will lead to a reduction in terror-
ism.
That's what happened a year and a
half ago in Afghanistan.
Osama bin Laden then called on far
wider support among Muslims than
Saddam Hussein now: He was called

Israeli government refuses, then the
United States will employ all of its post-
Iraq war victory prestige to force it to its
knees.
Are you frightened yet?
The good news is that none of
this has happened yet. The bad
news is that given the pressure
being exerted on this country by
its British ally, it just might.

based on Palestinian promises.
Second, don't underestimate the stu-
pidity of the Palestinians. They could
have had everything they could
have asked for on a silver platter
4 , three years ago and rejected it
because they wanted even more
— all of Israel. It is more likely
that they will embarrass any
administration that emulates the
efforts of President Bill Clinton
to accommodate them than it is
JONATHAN likely that they will go along.
Bigger Picture
S. TOBIN
President George W. Bush's sem-
Third, don't underestimate the
Special
inal June 24 speech, which set
will of the Israelis. To the dismay
Commentary of the Jewish right, Prime
forth a vision of peace based on
the transformation of the P.A.
Minister Ariel Sharon has rightly
and the ouster of Yasser Arafat, seems to
decided to avoid open confrontations
be forgotten lately.
with Washington over theoretical conces-
A postwar catastrophe for Israel isn't
sions. Saying "no" to suicidal concessions
certain, however. Many at the National
without setting off a war of words with
Security Council and the Department of Washington is a delicate art but the
Defense have been paying attention to
"bulldozer" may have mastered it.
the ties that have been clearly demon-
Finally, don't underestimate the sup-
strated between the Palestinians and Iraq. port for Israel among the American
Syria's intervention in the war on behalf
people. Bush got a taste of that last
of the Iraqis and intention to use
spring. He and his political guru Karl
Hezbollah to destabilize any peace effort
Rove haven't forgotten the full court
elsewhere is also undermining the "peace
press of Christian Evangelicals to lay
processors.
off Israel at the height of Arafat's ter-
This administration is committed to
ror war. Nor will he willingly antago-
changing the Arab world, not just
nize them or an energized American
appeasing it as its predecessors of both
Jewish community that is more open
parties did. Palestinian treachery and ter-
to supporting him in 2004.
ror will win them no friends even in the
Victory in Iraq is a certainty and it is
postwar push for peace.
something that will be good for America,
So far, President Bush has been a man
Israel and the Arab world. It may also
of his word. While he is on record in
bring peril for Israel but those who
favor of a Palestinian state, he is also
assume the worst aren't necessarily right.
committed to a vision of democracy and
Though it looks like the Quartet jugger-
real peace. He may actually insist that
naut may turn the Israelis into road kill,
principles of his June 24 speech be
a lot can happen to derail that collision
upheld, which will torpedo a process
before it happens. 111

.

"the greatest man in the world," his
tions. Afghans expressed joy at being
poster was paraded on streets and
liberated ("We're being reborn in the
newborn boys were named
world"), which caused
after him. Emotions were
Muslim anger at Washington
inflamed by claims of an
to melt away.
American grab for oil and talk
The U.S. victory dimin-
of Afghans suffering a "crisis
ished the appeal of militant
of Holocaust proportions."
Islam. "The commitment of
The government of Pakistan
fanatics tends to melt away
was deemed on the verge of
when they see their cause los-
overthrow. Hostilities in
ing," explained Stuart Taylor,
Afghanistan were seen as
Jr. of the National Journal just
DANIEL
inflaming rage against
as this phenomenon was hap-
PIPES
America. Some even foreshad- - Special
pening.
owed Mubarak's prediction:
In the first week after the
Commentary
"They can kill bin Laden,"
U.S. air strikes began, there
said a Palestinian interviewed
were nine anti-American
in London's Guardian. "But there will
demonstrations in Arab countries; the
. be hundreds more bin Ladens."
second week saw three, the third week
one, the fourth week two, then zero.
Muslim anger turned against bin
Not To Be
Laden — accusing him even of being
The Taliban collapsed in just two
a Zionist agent sent to discredit Islam.
months and with them these predic-
PIPES on page 36

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4/11

2003

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