UJC to again review the National Jewish Population Study.
riage numbers changed.
In the years since, many Jewish
institutions have launched efforts to
reach out to the intermarried, while
New York City
others focused on strengthening the
he release of the latest
identity of affiliated Jews. The new
nation-al Jewish population
survey included many questions relat-
study, already beset by
ed to identity and affiliation.
technical woes and delays,
Last October, the UJC released
will be postponed once again pending
some population statistics from the
an independent review, according to
latest NJPS, then pulled the full
its sponsors.
study from its annual General
The United Jewish Communities
Assembly in November amid reports
(UJC), which is bankrolling the $6
of technical problems that may have
million study of American Jewry that
affected the population figures.
has been billed as the most compre-
According to the initial findings,
hensive ever, has appointed an inde-
there were 5.2 million
pendent panel to
. Jews in the United
review the study. The
S tates, down 5 percent
National Jewish
from the 1990 NJPS,
Population Survey
due largely to a rising
2000-2001, which
median age and falling
was originally sched-
birth rates.
uled for release last
Between the release
'
November, is now not
?? of those findings and
expected to be made
the scheduled release
public for at least
0,
of the full report, the
another four to six
UJC
revealed that the
weeks — and possibly
.
7
firm
Roper Audits &
'
t
„
longer.
Surveys Worldwide,
"We wanted to
which conducted the
make sure the data
study's field research,
[were] in good shape
lost codes used to .
and that we do what-
Mark
Schulman
screen many of the
ever we could" to
175,000 people tele-
ensure its validity, said
phoned for the survey
Bernard Shapiro, who
to determine if they qualified to be
led an internal UJC inquiry into
among the 4,500 Jews ultimately sur-
problems plaguing the study.
veyed.
That and other glitches meant
Heading the new review will be
the overall population was likely
Mark Schulman, president of the
undercounted by 1 percent, while
polling and research firm Schulman,
Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. Shapiro and several subgroups such as non-Jews
living with Jews were overestimated,
UJC officials said such independent
those involved with the study said.
reviews were not uncommon" in
After these problems surfaced, the
major demographic studies such as
UJC named Shapiro, vice chancellor
the U.S. Census.
of McGill University in Montreal, to
The decision to appoint another
lead an internal inquiry into what
review was criticized by some of the
went wrong. In January, Shapiro and
experts involved with the study, one
a six-member investigative panel
of whom called it a "strange" move.
issued its findings, castigating Roper
ASW for the technical problems and
Data Awaited
citing "a range of serious issues of
conception, of data collection and of
Anticipation has built around the
analysis" in the project.
NJPS since the previous study in
At the time, Shapiro said none of
1990 found that 52 percent of Jews
the problems appeared serious
married in the previous five years had
enough to block the study and that it
married non-Jews. Many observers
were waiting to see how the intermar- would likely be made public around
JOE BERKOFSKY
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
T
I
g F
Passover. But this week, Shapiro said
he and UJC decided to appoint a
new committee of demographic
experts to conduct an independent
review of "the technical aspects of the
project, the execution of the project,
what was actually done and how."
Another Look
The review, which Shapiro said was
to "give the NJPS one more look,"
will include examining the study's
statistical sample, the weights used to
calibrate the results and a comparison
of the data with similar studies.
Shapiro said he was never brought
on to the project to conduct such
technical work. He said the technical
advisers originally involved with the
study were "not appropriate". choices
to conduct a final, independent
'review because they were already
involved with NJPS.
Ironically, Schulman, who will lead
the new review, heads the firm that
was among the losing bidders to con-
duct the latest NJPS. Other members
of the panel include Stanley Presser of
the University of Maryland, Eugene
Ericksen of Temple University and
Tom Smith of the National Opinion
Research Center.
Schulman said his objective is "not
to point fingers" but to determine if
"the estimates are as good as they can
be. Our committee is just a fresh pair
of eyes." The review will also explore
the "strengths and limitations" of the
NJPS data and make recommenda-
tions about the methods used to
gather the data for future studies, said
Schulman, who is president of the
American Association of Public
Opinion Research.
Schulman said he was not sure how
long the review would last, but said,
"It's not weeks, it's months, but no
more than that. I do think we can
bring this process to a closure."
But some members of the National
Technical Advisory Committee, a vol-
unteer panel of experts the UJC
appointed to consult on the decennial
Jewish study and other federation
research, questioned why the organi-
zation was bringing in yet another
committee.
One such member, Egon Mayer,
who was one of several who opposed
delaying the study in the first place,
said his panel had already analyzed
the NJPS data, making yet another
review superfluous and "strange."
By redoing the technical advisory
committee's work, the review panel
"will undermine the credibility of the
people who did this work and of the
data itself," said Mayer, who is also
director of the North American
Jewish Data Bank at the Graduate
Center of the City University of New
York.
Vivien Klaff, who co-chairs the
NJPS advisory panel and who partici-
pated in the internal inquiry, also
criticized the decision to 'delay the
project again. While the decision to
bring in an outside review panel was
not inappropriate, Klaff said, NJPS
has already "gone through a number
of validity checks" and "very little has
been found which was out of the
ordinary." The longer wait "just adds
another level of aggravation and. ten-
sion," he said. ,
But Lorraine Blass, a senior planner
for UJC who has worked on the pop-
ulation study, said the independent
review was necessary in order to clear
up any questions lingering about
NJPS. "We are fully committed to
having a fully transparent report that
will address all of these issues that
have come up in the last couple of
months, including missing data,"
Blass said. 111