Analysis Diplomatic Front before and failed. Cease-fires in Gaza and the West Bank cities of Bethlehem and Hebron failed to hold when the Palestinian Authority declined to confront terrorist groups. Hassan suggests that things will be different this time. Speaking in Nablus last weekend, he said he soon would present a detailed Palestinian proposal for a cease-fire beginning in Ramallah, where Arafat has Sharon also invited Fayyad to his farm, where he been holed up in his battered headquarters for more outlined reforms the Palestinian Authority must than a year. This time, Hassan says, a cease-fire would be respect- make before serious peace talks can resume. ed by all parts of Arafat's Fatah movement, including Al-Aksa Brigade terrorists who have carried out dozens New Initiatives of bombings and other attacks against Israel. Sharon's main demand is that P.A. leader Yasser Arafat Hassan acknowledges that one of the main reasons be stripped of his executive powers and pushed into a for the Palestinians' newfound seriousness is the antici- pated war on Iraq, which he believes will radi- cally change the rules in the Middle East. The Palestinians must change course, he believes, by stopping terrorism and turning to political moves. "It is time to harvest the political fruits," Hassan says, "and we can- not afford to make any mistakes this time." Both Jordan and Egypt are actively involved in the efforts to revive the political process. On Feb. 9, Weisglass went to Amman to brief the Jordanians, while the new chief of Israel's National Security Council, Ephraim Halevy, has been keeping Egypt updated. Jordan and Egypt also are motivated by visions of a changing Middle East: Egypt especially hopes to impress a presumably victorious United States by helping to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon listens as Israeli President Egypt has made a major effort to get all Moshe Katsav speaks to the media at the president's Palestinian terrorist organizations to stop residence in Jerusalem on Feb. 9 after Katsav formally tabbed attacking Israel, and risked losing face when Sharon to put together a ruling coalition. the radicals refused. Undeterred, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak invited Sharon for talks in Sharm el-Sheik, the first invita- tion by an Arab leader since Sharon was first elected ceremonial role, with real power transferred to a prime minister. Fayyad is a leading candidate for the job — prime minister in February 2001. and would probably be the first choice of Israel and the United States. Political Overtones In the few months since he took charge of Still, some pundits argue that Sharon is only feinting Palestinian financial affairs, Fayyad has proven himself toward a peace deal to entice Labor into his coali- competent and trustworthy, sincerely committed to Bush's vision of Israeli and Palestinian states living as tion. If so, it's not working. Labor Party leaders say they don't believe Sharon peaceful neighbors and cooperating economically. With has any real intention of moving toward peace. In a Fayyad as prime minister, Israeli and American officials recent meeting with Amram Mitzna, they note, believe Bush's two-state vision could become a reality. But it's not clear whether Fayyad has sufficient stand- Sharon lectured the Labor chairman on the impor- tance of Netzarim and Kfar Darom, two Gaza Strip ing among the Palestinian public to win the job. Nor is settlements that Mitzna says should be evacuated. it clear whether American and Israeli support will hurt Mitzna maintains that Sharon's attitude to the set- Fayyad's chances of taking power. Most pressing, however, is a cease-fire, without which tlements shows he isn't ready to make peace, and that he wants Labor in his coalition so he can drag nothing will go forward. his feet indefinitely. Sharon aides retort that the In talks with Hassan, Israeli officials are reviving the idea of a "rolling" cease-fire that would begin in a limit- prime minister sees a post-Iraq situation in which peacemaking with the Palestinians will be a real pos- ed geographic area and, if it holds there, would spread sibility: After Saddam falls, Sharon reckons, Arafat until it encompasses the entire West Bank and Gaza will be the next to go. Strip. Then, says Sharon, people like Fayyad and At that point, Israeli troops could withdraw to posi- Hassan, who want a new deal for the Palestinians, tions they held before the intifada began, and more will be able to make reciprocal moves toward peace comprehensive peace talks could begin. The trouble is that similar ideas have been tried without hindrance. Li As peace moves quicken, is it sincere or just politics? LESLIE SUSSER Jewish Telegraphic Agency Jerusalem A fter more than two years of a downward spiral in Israeli-Palestinian relations, the prospect of a new regional balance after an anticipated American war on Iraq is concentrating . Israeli and Palestinian minds. Both sides want to be ready for any new American demands after the dust settles in Baghdad. And so, after months of icy silence, Israeli and Palestinian officials have started talking again — and the upshot could be a new cease-fire. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says his aim is to create a basis for a major peace initiative later in the year. His critics, however, aren't so sure: They accuse Sharon of going through the motions to keep the international community happy and to lure the Labor Party into his coalition. Talks have been taking place on three levels: • Sharon himself met Ahmad Karia, the speaker of the Palestinian Parliament, to discuss renewing the peace process and what it could offer the Palestinians. • Sharon's bureau chief, Dov Weisglass, has been discussing cease-fire terms with the Palestinian Authority's interior minister, Hani Hassan, who is in charge of Palestinian security affairs. • Ohad Marani, director general of Israel's Finance Ministry, negotiated with P.A. Finance Minister Salam Fayyad the transfer of $60 million in Palestinian tax money that Israel had withheld since the intifada (uprising) began in September 2000. In addition to those cynics who say Sharon's recent flurry of moves aren't sincere and are intend- ed to attract the Labor Party to the government, others say Sharon simply recognizes that the overthrow of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein will create a window of diplomatic opportunity in the region, and is signaling to the international community that he is Salam prepared to move toward a Palestinian Fayyad state as envisaged by U.S. President Geroge W. Bush. But Sharon doesn't want to be rushed. Therefore, he recently set up a team under dovish Likud Party legisla- tor Dan Meridor to coordinate future moves with the United States, pre- Hani empting pressure on Israel from the Hassan international community, especially the European Union. Meridor is said to be working on a new Israeli-American peace plan based on under- standings reached by Sharon and Bush in a number of recent conversations. 2/14 2003 20