Dilemma On Iraq Israel, U.S. coordinate plans on Iraq, but rift looms on possible retaliation. LESLIE SUSSER Jewish Telegraphic Agency N attack with nonconventional weapons, Israel's govern- ment will feel duty-bound to retaliate — both to sat- isfy domestic public opinion and, more importantly, to maintain Israel's deterrent capacity in the region. Mofaz, therefore, refused to say what the Americans wanted to hear, and would not commit that Israel would avoid getting involved in the war under any circumstances. On the contrary, Mofaz made it clear that Israel reserves the right to retaliate if it suffers heavy civilian casualties or if it is attacked with nonconventional weapons. However, Mofaz did promise that in return for American consideration of Israel's interests, Israel would coordinate any retaliatory strike with we can do," an Israeli defense official said. The United States, however, would prefer a far more measured response, one that the United States carries out and controls, because it hopes to rebuild Iraq and Iraqi institutions as quickly as possible in the post-Saddam era. ever have Israel and the United States had such close coordination on Iraq. As the anticipated American attack on Baghdad draws nearer, the U.S. military even has been showing Israeli officials its detailed plans for Threat Scrutinized preventing Iraqi missile attacks on Israel. How serious is the threat of a nonconventional But the reason for the American operational Iraqi attack? Besides the possible delivery of biolog- largesse is clear: The United States does not want ical or chemical agents via Scud missiles, Israeli and Israel to play any military role in the war against U.S. intelligence officials believe Iraq will attempt Iraq. Despite the close coordination, Israel has not to send "suicide pilots" with cargoes of biological promised to stay out of the fighting. Moreover, there or chemical weapons. are sharp differences between the two sides Israeli officials recall that in the 1991 • on how to respond if Israel is attacked with Gulf War, Iraq planned a fighter-bomber nonconventional weapons. biological attack, first sending three con- During Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz's ventionally armed MiG fighters to see if mid-December visit to Washington, they could penetrate Israeli airspace. If American officials went out of their way to successful, the plan was to follow up with convince the Israeli delegation that the more sorties, including one by a Sukhoi United States would do all it could to bomber loaded with biological agents. defend Israel, and that there would be no The plan never materialized because the need for Israel to get involved in the war. first MiGs were shot down soon after The officials said American forces would take-off. Since the Gulf War, Israeli air take decisive action to prevent Iraqi missile defenses have become even tighter, and launchers from being moved into western defense officials say the relatively slow-fly- Iraq — from where Israel would be in their ing Iraqi "suicide planes" would be easier range — and to take them out if they are. to intercept than Scud missiles. The officials promised that America As for missile attacks, the officials rate would show Israel its plans for neutralizing these as less likely than suicide plane sor- the Iraqi missile launchers, and allow Israel ties, because the number of missiles Iraq to comment and offer suggestions. has and its capacity to launch them have Moreover, the United States said it would Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon inspects Israeli army chemical war are been severely curtailed since the 1991 Gulf send 1,000 American soldiers to Israel with protection kits during a visit to the army's Home Front Command. War, officials say. Patriot missiles, to back up Israel's Arrow Still, Israel is not taking chances, and anti-missile defense system. Washington. That might be why American military plans are being considered to inoculate the entire If, despite these offensive and defensive measures, planners were smiling after the meeting. population against smallpox. an Iraqi missile were to get through and hit Israel, The bottom line is this: Should an Iraqi missile In operational terms, the Mofaz commitment America — not Israel — would retaliate, the offi- seems to mean that Israel will clear retaliatory plans or plane get through, and should the Americans cials said. urge restraint, Israel will face an acute dilemma — with the Americans in advance, and will not attack unless given flying times, routes and friend-foe air because in addition to its operational leverage, the Different Agendas United States has considerable political and eco- codes. That would seem to make an Israeli strike nomic leverage. dependent on American approval: If the United The problem is that Israel and the United States Israeli officials say their U.S. counterparts have States disapproves of the response, it could with- have a number of fundamentally different strategic hold the operational information, making an attack not made any attempt to condition the $4 billion interests in the context of the conflict with Iraq. virtually impossible. Israel has requested in military aid, to help defray America does not want direct Israeli involvement the costs of its deployment against the Iraqi threat, Israeli defense officials acknowledge that this in the war to further complicate U.S. ties with the could present a problem, but say they are confident on Israel's agreement to take a blow quietly. Arab world. But Israel has domestic and regional Clearly, however, if Israel were to retaliate against the United States will understand Israel's needs and considerations that make it very difficult to refrain American wishes, it could find itself forfeiting this will make it possible for Israel to retaliate if neces- from retaliation if the country is hit by Iraqi mis- aid and being punished by the Americans on the sary. Then again, Washington would want to have siles, as it did in the 1991 Persian Gulf War under Palestinian issue after the war. a say on the scope of the Israeli response. fierce American pressure. If it sits out the war, Israel might just be reward- Israel would prefer to respond itself, and with Israeli officials believe Israel's failure to respond in ed — though whether that would make up for great force, to deter other countries in the region 1991 seriously undermined Israel's deterrent posture from following the Iraqi example. That could mean physical damage to the Israeli home front, and the and encouraged other groups, such as Hezbollah in intangible damage to Israel's deterrent capacity, - widespread destruction in Iraq. "We would want Lebanon, to attack Israel. everyone to know it was us, and to realize just what remains to be seen. El If Israeli casualty figures are high or if the Iraqis 12/27 2002 1,5