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APR on 30-year is 5.875%, 15-year is 6.049%. 1-year arm is 3.721%, 30-year jumbo is 5.96%,15-year jumbo is 5.476%, 1-year jumbo arm is 4.696%. tiN 9/27 2002 24 CALL THAI' FOR A SUBSCRIPTION 248.539.3001 the data, some of which is being released early next month, more recent counts have put the Jewish population New York City far closer to the 1990 NJPS of 5.5 here are 600,000 more million than Tobin's calculations. American Jews than previ- In 2000, UJC researchers Jim ously believed, because the Schwartz and Jeffrey Scheckner relied U.S. Jewish population has on local communal counts — lists been underestimated for years, accord - provided by the nation's 200 Jewish ing to a new study. federations, along with figures by A national survey by the Institute communal "experts" such as rabbis in for Jewish & Community Research less populated Jewish areas, to arrive at found 6.7 million Jews out of 288 an estimate of 6.1 million U.S. Jews. million Americans, far higher than the In 2001, sociologist Egon Mayer, closest, most recent estimate of 6.1 director of the Center for Jewish million American Jews. Studies at the Graduate Center of the "Jews have been systematically City University of New York, led a undercounted for decades," said Gary team that counted 5.5 million U.S. Tobin, president of the San Francisco- Jews, either by religion, by Jewish based institute. But Tobin cast an even parentage or by upbringing. That fig- wider net than any other demographer ure matched the 1990 NJPS, and used has to date when it comes to measur- much of the same methodology. ing people who are "connected" One key shift in Mayer's findings Jewishly, capturing a total of 13.3 mil- from the 1990 NJPS, however, was lion people with a variety of Jewish that intermarriage seemed to be ties and defying what he calls a mis- increasing and Jewish identification taken notion of "a shrinking Jewish shrinking. Mayer found in 2001 that population." 33 percent of Jews — those raised as Jews "have deep roots in American Jews or who identified as Jews — are society," Tobin said. "Jews are not dis- married to non-Jews, compared to 28 appearing, they're transforming." percent in 1990. But several prominent Jewish But Tobin insisted previous studies demographers questioned Tobin's find- have been wrong in several ways. First, ings and their significance. these studies undercounted Jews - Ira Sheskin, a University of Miami because many Jews deny their identity professor involved with several Jewish in phone surveys, out of fears of anti- population studies, said Tobin painted Semitism, he said. too big a picture of American Jewry. "I could claim my dog, too, if you want to stretch the net far enough," Sheskin More Connections said. To test that theory, Tobin said his Tobin's study, which paints a far study used similar screening questions more optimistic portrait of American about Jewish identity to those used in Jewry than earlier studies, comes on , the NJPS in 1990 and 2000 with the eve of the long-awaited National "known" Jews, and found that 13 per- Jewish Population Survey 2000-2001, cent — which he extrapolates to which is widely expected to be the 850,000 people — said there was no benchmark in measuring the U.S. Jew in the household. Jewish population. Second, this latest study, which sur- Tobin's study surveyed 250 house- veyed 10,204 randomly selected U.S. holds. The NJPS 2000 has a sampling households to get to the 250 homes of 4,500 households. Final tallies of with a Jewish connection, used a line the latest NJPS have been closely of questioning about people's back- guarded by officials of the United grounds that made them "feel much Jewish Communities federation more comfortable" before delving into umbrella in New York, which is over- Jewish issues, he said. seeing the survey. What Tobin found is that 2.5 mil- While only a few researchers lion Americans are "socially or psycho- involved in the latest NJPS have seen logically connected" with Judaism. ❑ T