Battle Lines
Israel has counter-measures prepared for any Iraqi attack.
when Saddam attacks. Israeli analysts
believe the Butcher of Baghdad has a
small, but significant, stockpile of
non-conventional warheads, maybe
n 1991, Saddam Hussein rained
even a low-yield radioactive "dirty
about 40 Scud missiles on Israeli
bomb." He also has the systems —
cities. Against all its warrior
missiles, aircraft, perhaps agents on the
instincts, Yitzhak Shamir's
ground — necessary to deliver at least
Likud-led government yield-
some of them.
ed to American pressure and
"There is no question," says Gerald
refrained from retaliating. It
Steinberg,
a senior researcher at Bar-
left Uncle Sam to do the job.
Ilan
University's
Begin-Sadat Center
The chances that Ariel
for
Strategic
Studies,
"that Saddam
Sharon would be equally passive, if and
had missiles prepared for use in 1991
when the Iraqi dictator targeted Israel
with chemical warheads. United
in a Desert Storm II, are negligible.
Nations inspectors discovered and
No one in Israel is rattling sabers,
documented 20 or more. There is also
but the prime minister and his gener-
credible evidence of biological war-
als have said repeatedly that if Israel is
heads, but this is not con-
attacked, especially with non-
firmed. There is overwhelm-
conventional warheads, it will
ing evidence that the non-
hit back. So far, Washington is
,conventional capability exist-
not urging restraint. It has no
ed, and it has improved
coalition to preserve this time,
since
1991."
no Arab partners to placate.
Although
the Arrow,
Israel is quietly making
developed
by
Israel with
defensive and offensive prepara-
American
financial
support,
tions. Two batteries of Arrows,
has
never
been
tried
in corn-
the world's most ambitious
- bat, Steinberg is convinced it
missile defense system, have
could take out Saddam's
been deployed in the heavily
antiquated, Soviet-era mis-
populated center of the coun
siles. "The Scud," he says,
try. Further south are improved
"presents one clearly defined,
versions of the Patriot missile,
large, slow target. The Arrow
designed principally to shoot
would
intercept it over
down enemy warplanes. A third
An Israeli soldier walks toward a unit of recently deployed Jordan at an altitude of about
Arrow battery is being pre-
Patriot missiles near Israel's nuclear research reactor near
40 kilometers, before the
pared.
Dimona on Aug. 26 as part of Israeli military training.
launcher broke up. The system
The Israel Defense Forces are
would
have more than one
believed to have been training
shot
at
it,
at
least
two missiles from
Uzi
Arad,
who
served
as
Binyamin
for a possible air or ground assault on
the
same
battery.
"
Netanyahu's
foreign
policy
adviser
western Iraq, from which the Scud
The
American-made
Patriot is less
when
he
was
prime
minister,
contends
missiles, armed with conventional high
effective against missiles. It did great
that Israel is better prepared to protect
explosives, were fired at Israel last time.
things for the morale of Israelis in
itself than any other country on Earth.
And while Israel is not flaunting its
their
sealed rooms in 1991, but studies
"We have the most advanced ability to
nuclear deterrent, Saddam knows it is
conducted
after the Gulf War suggest-
intercept
aircraft
and
missiles,"
he
there. "We are not without some
ed
that
it
stopped
few, if any, Scuds
explains.
"In
terms
of
passive
defense
punch," said Uzi Arad, a former direc-
reaching
Tel
Aviv.
The missiles disinte-
—
shelters,
gas
masks,
defense
against
tor of intelligence in the Mossad secret
grated,
but
the
warheads
flew on. The
chemical
and
biological
attacks
—
service. "The Iraqis have to factor in
Patriot's anti-missile capability has
again Israel offers its society the most
our response. They have to consider
been improved over the past decade,
extensive and intensive defense.
whether treading on us is worth the
but the doubts persist. It intercepts its
" All this is being handled at the
reaction they are likely to get."
quarry at a lower altitude, by which
highest
level.
In
terms
of
vaccines
and
The man or woman in the streets of
time a Scud would probably have bro-
antibiotics,
the
health
services
are
bet-
Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, Netanya and
ken
up, making the warhead a faster,
ter
prepared
than
ever
before."
Haifa, is more concerned right now
more
elusive target to hit.
with dodging Palestinian suicide
The Patriot would have no such
bombers than Iraqi Scuds. Another
problem with incoming aircraft. That,
Gulf confrontation remains hypotheti- Iraqi Arsenal
after all, is what it was built for. "If the
That confidence will be tested if and
cal. Sharon is wary of openly inciting
ERIC SILVER
Israel Correspondent
I
President George W. Bush to emulate
his father and go to war. But the pun-
dits are soberly weighing the odds.
"The likelihood that the United
States will attack Iraq within the next
year is higher than 50 percent," calcu-
lates Yosef Alpher, a former director of
Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies. "The likeli-
hood that Saddam Hussein
will respond by attacking us
is higher than 50 percent.
The likelihood of his attempting to
use some kind of non-conventional
weapon is higher than 50 percent.
Given that scenario, there is a likeli-
hood of more than 50 percent that we
would retaliate."
ANALYSIS
Israel Insight
nit ISSUE
While a member of Yasser Arafat's
Fatah movement's central council
proclaimed publicly that, despite
the recent Israeli-Palestinian cease-
fire agreement, the Palestinian
Authority would not be collecting
illegal weapons or arresting gun-
men, the actions of Palestinians in
the street are beginning to show a
lack of faith in Arafat's and Fatah's
leadership.
BEHIND THE ISSUE
Palestinian. despair and disappoint-
ment in the direction Yasser Arafat
has been taking his people was
expressed in newly released census
figures, which showed more than
80,000 Palestinians have left the
West Bank and Gaza in recent
months. In addition, a well-respect-
ed pollster has announced an all-
time low approval rating for Arafat's
leadership.
— Allan Gale, Jewish Community
Council ofMetropolitan Detroit
Iraqi strategy is to blow up Dimona
with a concentrated air attack,"
Steinberg predicts, "the Patriot could
be effective." It is no coincidence that
the Patriots were deployed in mid-
August, ostensibly for training purpos-
es, near the less-than-secret Negev
nuclear reactor.
Israeli and American spy satellites, as
well as Israel's Green Pine radar, will
increase Israel's early warning from
two minutes in 1991 to .six minutes
today. A recent Arab League study
defined Israel's new Ofek 5 satellite as
"a great threat to the Arab world." The
Arab experts wrote that the Ofek was
capable of photographing the entire
Arab world, identifying everything
from military bases to movement in
populated areas, and transmitting the
images in real time.
The Israeli newspaper Yediot
Aharonot reported, however, that the
Israeli spy in the sky was not built to
photograph continuously over Iraq. "If
Israel wants to identify the launching
of a surface-to-surface ballistic mis-
sile," the Tel Aviv daily explained, "it
needs a type of satellite that only the
Americans possess."
Presumably, as in 1991, the U.S. -
would beam such information live to
Israel's Tel Aviv command post. ❑
9/ 6
2002
35