The Numbers Game
and psychological pressures on both
Israelis and Palestinians are intense, yet
the wills of both peoples are stronger.
Something, clearly, has to give.
But so long as Israel feels threat-
ened by homicidal bombers, that
something will not be the Israeli
Defense Forces. Israel's recent
takeover of Palestinian cities has been
named Operation Path of
Determination. Isn't it clearly possible
that this path is another bend in the
Road to Nowhere?
From afar, world leaders can
demand that both sides make
reforms. But does President George
W. Bush or anyone else seriously
believe that the Palestinians will
transform their society into a demo-
cratic, financially transparent state —
the marks of other democracies that
we in the West know? Or that cor-
ruption in Palestine will be a thing of
the past? And if there is new
Palestinian leadership, then what's in
store for Israel and the region?
The strangest part of the tragedy
As the first black to be chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as well as the
first black Secretary of State, he gives
Bush's Cabinet a luster and a legitima-
cy no one else can provide. Were he
forced out or to resign in a huff, it
would be a devastating blow to Bush.
That said, who's winning the Cabinet
war? The June 24 speech made it clear
that the pro-Israel Department of
Defense is calling the signals in the
Bush huddle while Powell is relegated
to being the lonesome end wandering
around the field while the rest of the
team follows a different plan.
And if you think Powell is in seri-
ous danger of total irrelevance today,
imagine just how marginal he will be
when Bush makes good on his pledge
of "regime change" in Iraq and
launches the war to finish Saddam
Hussein.
Sticking To Their Guns
While Bush wants to keep Powell in
the fold, his instincts on the Israel-
Arab conflict dovetail nicely with
Rumsfeld's blunt appreciation for the
truth.
To the dismay of both America's
Arab "allies" and our European
"friends," Bush stuck to his guns on
Arafat and treated him like the crimi-
nal he is.
The delicate lead-up to an offensive
against Iraq will require plenty of
F
percent, Christians; 1.5 per-
cent, Druze; 3.2 percent, of
or some time,
undeclared religion. The
knowledgeable
Central Bureau of Statistics
observers here, chief
forecasts that at least until
among them
the year 2020, Jews will con-
Professor Arnon Sofer of the
tinue to constitute 77-79 per-
University of Haifa, have
cent of the population, so
been sounding an alarm
CARL
long as we do not annex areas
regarding Israel's future based
ALPERT
with
large Arab populations.
on demographic factors.
Special
There seems little danger of
Demography: the science
Commentary that.
of vital and social statistics,
To the contrary, there are
as of the births, deaths, dis-
suggestions that in annexa-
ease, marriages, etc., of the
tion of unpopulated areas of
population. In recent weeks
the West Bank, Israel will, in
and months, the Hebrew
return,
cede to the proposed
press here has called renewed atten-
Palestine state border areas now
tion to the problem with the publi-
under Israeli sovereignty, which are
cation of articles warning Israel that
heavily populated by Arabs.
because the Arab birthrate exceeds
There are other factors involved,
the Jewish birthrate, it will not be
of course, including natural family
too many years before Jews will
growth. It is significant that though
become a minority in the Jewish
Arab
families do tend to be larger
state.
Warnings of the demographic dan- than Jewish families, their birth rate
has been falling steadily as a result of
ger have been sounded for a long
improvement in their socio-econom-
time. Commentator Yoram Ettinger
ic status. In 1970, they produced 8
reminds us that as far back as 1900,
children per family. In 1985, the fig-
the eminent historian, Simon
ure was 7, and more lately, 5.6.
Dubnow, asserted with confidence
Israel itself encourages this growth
that a Jewish state could never
quick diplomatic and political foot-
by providing generous grants that
become
a
reality
because
the
50,000
work by the administration. As
Jews in Palestine at the time could at increase as the families increase in
friends of Israel weigh in on the
size. Haredi families also benefit
best increase to only about 500,000
debate over Iraq in the coming
from this aid, but the Arab citizens
in
the
ensuing
100
years,
and
would
months, it is important for them to
no less. There is an effort at this
be
a
small
minority
in
the
over-
remember that defeating Baghdad is
time to reduce this financial aid. In
whelming
Arab-Muslim
population.
in the common interests of both Israel
recent years, Israel has also been
In 1948, the reputable statistician,
and America. Support for this admin-
accepting the return of Palestinian
Dr.
Robert
Bacchi,
warned
Prime
istration's anti-terror policies should
refugees on the grounds of family
Minister
David
Ben-Gurion
not
to
be at the top of our political priority
reunification; it is claimed that as
proclaim
establishment
of
a
Jewish
list.
many as 150,000 Arabs have helped
state
on
the
grounds
that
within
20
Unfortunately, some friends of
swell the population.
years,
the
650,000
Jews
in
the
area
Israel in this country have been con-
Another factor, of course, is Jewish
would
be
vastly
outnumbered
by
the
fused by the mixed signals that have
immigration.
Should peace come to
Arabs.
been sent out by Powell's statements.
the
Middle
East,
and Israel's security
Logical though these predictions
It is possible that Powell's dead-end
assured, there is little doubt that
may
have
seemed
at
the
time,
devel
initiatives may serve some purpose in
increased numbers of Jews will come
opments thereafter rendered them
the Bush-Rumsfeld war strategy.
to make their homes here. .
false.
For
one
thing,
there
was
the
But some Jewish leaders who ought
There is another possibility that
large-scale
departure
of
Arab
to know better still worry that Powell
may affect the statistics.
refugees.
Their
place
in
the
popula-
will continue to undermine Israel, and
Establishment of a Palestinian
tion statistics was taken by Jewish
ultimately outmaneuver Rumsfeld.
state
would confront Israeli Arabs
refugees, both from Europe and
They fear this administration will
with opportunity to make a choice:
from
Muslim
countries
which
Jews
somehow wind up being no different
to elect to remain citizens of Israel
were compelled to leave. The more
from Bush the elder's or Clinton's,
or, while retaining residence here,
recent
immigration
of
over
a
million
and sacrifice Israel to appease the
elect to become citizens of the new
from
the
former
Soviet
Union
tipped
Arabs.
state, or even move there.
the
scales
even
further.
Such unsophisticated analysis ought
Expectation that huge sums of
Today,
we
are
told,
the
population
to be ignored. As Washington gives
money will be available to encourage
of Israel is about 6.5 million people,
Israel room to hit back at Palestinian
the economy of the new state might
most of whom, 77.8 percent are
terrorists, this is not the time to start
well make this a real possibility.
Jewish;
15.25
percent,
Muslims;
2.1
undermining or second-guessing the
The prophets of doom continue to
Carl Alpert is a U.S. native who
president.
insist
on their bleak forecasts, but we
made aliyah in 1952. He is former
No matter what mischief Colin
know by now that unexpected and
leader of the Zionist Organization
Powell may undertake in his search
changing circumstances have a way of
for relevance, Rumsfeld is still the
of America. His e-mail address is
offsetting theoretical expectations. ❑
man who counts. ❑
alpert@techunix.technion.ac.il
through which Israelis and
Palestinians are now agonizing is,
insofar as the "situation" is con-
cerned, the last chapter already has
been written — partially at Camp
David and partially at Taba — give or
take a little bit of sovereignty here
and a few acres of land there. The
question is: What chapter are we on
now — and how many more have to
be written until we reach the last
one? And what book are we really
reading: Job or Genesis?
One thing is evident. The mistrust
between Israelis and Palestinians is
too deep for them to finish this book
themselves. So, be it the so-called
Quartet or some combination of the
U.S., selected European countries,
Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
Jordan, a strong editor, on a tempo-
rary basis, is desperately needed.
Soon. Given the cooling-off period,
perhaps both sides will be able to
return to that last chapter. If not, it
well could be that the book will be
consumed in the fire of hate. 111
Haifa
,
Or
8/23
2002
43