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third on his list of priorities."
But until the violence ends,
Freedman said, Israel is unlikely to
accept Mubarak's offer — and
Washington is unlikely to be overly
impressed with it.
Pro-Israel groups, anxious to avoid a
bruising .confrontation with the Bush
administration over a controversial
arms sale to Egypt, are simply declar-
ing victory and hoping for the best.
That's the gist of a tentative agree-
ment between Israel's friends in
Congress, who maintained the sale of
the Harpoon Block II anti-ship mis-
siles to Egypt would significantly alter
the security equation for Israel, and
the Bush administration.
Instead of trying to block the deal,
many pro-Israel lawmakers, with the
assent of pro-Israel groups, have accept-
ed the administration's promise to
"dumb down" the new weapons system.
The missiles, with a 100-mile range,
can be launched from fast patrol
boats, putting most of Israel within
range. Critics say the missiles would
significantly increase Egypt's offensive
capability — and that Israel is the only
likely target.
Shoshana Bryen, special projects
director for the Jewish Institute for
National Security Affairs (JINSA), said
pro-Israel groups could be making a
big mistake by "rolling over and play-
ing dead" on the Harpoon deal.
Bryen said it is "not clear" if the
advanced weapon will be crippled
enough to keep it from cutting into
Israel's qualitative military edge. One
big concern, she said, has been
addressed: the size of the 500-pound
warhead will apparently be reduced.
"A 500-pound warhead is big
enough not just to do huge damage to
land targets, but it could threaten U.S.
aircraft carriers in the region," she
said. "So if that is gone from the pack-
age, it is a major change."
It is unlikely Egypt could refit the
missiles with heavier warheads after
delivery, she said.
Less certain is whether requeSted
changes in the software that guides the
missile will be enough to minimize the
danger to Israel.
"We don't know how complete the
changes will be, or how reversible they
are," she said.
The changes in the Harpoon config-
uration are important, she said, but
she still criticized the sale. "There is
no excuse for it," she said. "There is
no reason for Egypt to have these
weapons. It's a bad precedent; you're
paying Egypt off with things that
could help them against Israel." ❑
.
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