No Surprises

Powell to revive Mideast peace efforts in Monday speech.

MATTHEW E. BERGER
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Washington
srael and the American Jewish community are
hoping the Bush administration's efforts to
revive Israeli-Palestinian talks will be a catalyst
for peace.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to
outline a plan toward ending violence in the region
in a speech Monday in Louisville, Ky.
Details of the address are still being hashed out,
but community leaders say it is aimed at reinvigorat-
ing proposals already on the table, instead of formu-
lating a new Middle East policy.
Although Powell is expected to reiterate the ulti-
mate goal of a Palestinian state, he is also expected
to place increased pressure on Palestinian Authority
leader Yasser Arafat to curb violence in the region.
The new U.S. initiative is not expected to tackle
the final-status issues that derailed previous peace
efforts, including the right of return for Palestinian
refugees and the fate of Jerusalem.
It will also not delve into details of the kind that
former President Clinton outlined in a speech short-
ly before leaving office last year, sources say.
What remains to be determined is what details
will be included.
Ideas are being floated by the administration to
Israeli and Arab officials in the United States, and
Israeli officials in Washington say they have been
assured they "will not be surprised" by the initiatives
-
in the speech.
American Jewish leaders say the State Department
has been willing to meet with them to hear their
concerns and priorities, but have not shown them a
draft.
It is also unclear whether Powell will adopt the
peace proposals being floating in Israel by Foreign
Minister Shimon Peres and others. Peres' plan
reportedly calls for Israel to dismantle settlements in
Gaza and allow the Palestinians to erect a state there.
But that plan does not appear to have the support
of the coalition government in Israel, especially as
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon faces tough criticism
from his right.
Powell's speech is expected to be a road map
toward an ultimate two-state solution, piecing
together plans and initiatives that have been out-
lined in the past year.
Key among those principles is the Tenet plan,
hammered out by CIA Director George Tenet in
June after a suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv disco. The
plan seeks immediate resumption in security cooper-
ation between Israelis and Palestinians, calls for the
end to violence in the region and a restoration of the
situation on the ground to what it was before the
uprising began in September of last year.
Its goal is to get the two parties to implement the

Secretary of State Colin Powell meets with Syrian
Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara at New York's
Waldof Astoria Hotel Nov. 11.

Mitchell Report, named for former U.S. Sen. George
Mitchell, which outlines a three-pronged approach to
rebuilding relations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority — ending violence, rebuilding
confidence and resuming peace negotiations.
The Mitchell plan recommends a "cooling-off
period" and urges both sides to condemn incite-
ment. It also seeks "100 percent effort" from the
Palestinian Authority in curbing violence and
demands that Israel freeze settlement activity in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Then there is the question of a Palestinian state.
While the details still need to be worked out,

sources say, Powell is expected to reiterate the words
that have come from President Bush and others in
his administration in the last few weeks, emphasiz-
ing an eventual Palestinian state, with security for
both countries.
The Bush administration will be trying to balance
the concerns of many different national and interna-
tional constituencies with the new initiative.
In the post-Sept. 11 atmosphere, the White House
would prefer to focus attention away from the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and concentrate on main-
taining its coalition against terrorism. But it knows
that Arab countries are pressing for progress on the
Israeli-Palestinian front.
In order to propose a deal that will entice Arafat,
the United States is evoking the name "Palestine"
and the vision of an eventual state, sources say. But,
it is also placing additional public pressure on the
Palestinian Authority to clamp down on terrorism
and incitement.
While plans for a new initiative had been consid-
ered throughout the last two months, the timing of
next week's address seems to be optimal, analysts say.
With the first two months of the war on terrorism
showing modest successes, the United States is in a
good position to flex its international muscle, they
say.
"The U.S. has the wind at its back," said Tom
Smerling, Washington director of the Israel Policy
Forum.
Smerling said the Palestinians are beginning to see
the effectiveness of the intifada waning, and the
Israelis are seeing the limits of controlling violence
militarily.
"Everybody seems to be getting ready for a diplo-
rdatic push," he said.
"That will never happen without a good shove
from . the United States; it never does." Although
some in the American Jewish community had been
wary of a new U.S. initiative, recent comments from
the Bush administration have helped calm theirfears.

SURPRISES on page 28

Collapsing Coalition?

Peace proposals could topple Israel's unity government.

DAVID LANDAU
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

T

he U.S. pledges to
increase Washington's
involvement in ending
Israeli-Palestinian vio-
lence may be welcome in some
quarters, but they are source of anx-
iety for some in the government of
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Not only could a new U.S. ini-
tiative create new friction between
Jerusalem and Washington, Israeli
analysts say, it could also trigger
the breakup of Sharon's fragile
national unity coalition.

Even if Israel
agrees to the idea of
Palestinian state-
hood, as significant
as the step may be, it
will not be enough
to paper over the
very real and very
deep differences that
divide Sharon from
the Bush administra- Ariel Sharon
tion — and divide
Sharon from his foreign minister,
the Labor Party's Shimon Peres.
This explains the growing spec-
ulation in Jerusalem that newly
energized U.S. peacemaking could
easily result in tension with

Washington and in
the collapse of the
national unity gov-
ernment.

Internal Talks

It was with the goal
of preventing these
two scenarios that
Peres has been trying
over the past several
days — so far without success —
to draw up with Sharon a mutual-
ly agreed list of Israel's peace prin-
ciples.
Their discussions reportedly hit
COALITION on page 28

11/16

2001

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