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was very clear, and the violence was
stopped."
Former Prime Minister Ehud
Barak went to Camp David last year
ready to give huge concessions, from
an average Israeli's point of view, but
Arafat was not going to sign any-
thing, he said. "Barak could have
offered 10 times more, and Arafat
knew that whatever he will get, with
violence he will get more."
Arafat did not anticipate that Barak
would be replaced by Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon, and it has become a
Catch-22 situation, he said. "The last
thin.. Sharon wants in the history
books is another war with his name
on it. He can never give to Arafat
what Barak was ready to give him,
and Arafat can never accept less."
Arafat wields all the power on the
Palestinian side, Ganor said. "We can
see in Beit Jala that the violence does
not intensify more than Arafat wants."
Ganor said that the international
media needs to be reminded that
freedom fighters can be terrorists, but
terrorists can't be freedom fighters.
Terrorism kills innocent civilians, and
guerilla warfare chooses military tar-
gets, and the two should not be con-
fused, he said.
In the future, Ganor sees three
scenarios: "The best case is that
Arafat calculates the cost of the
uprising, sees that he has much
more cost than benefit. He knows
that he cannot get another final
agreement, so we are going to dis-
cuss another midterm agreement."
Arafat decides to go on with this
war of attrition for the second sce-
nario, and he wants to force the
international community to guard
the Palestinians from the Jews.
He waits for one of two Israeli mis-
takes, either an Israeli shell falling on a
school or a building with kids, or
Jewish terrorism starting to intensify.
Then he can go to the media and say,
'Save me from the Jews.'"
The last scenario is deterioration to
war, said Ganor. Arafat decides to use
the abilities he has, more suicide
bombings, mortars, surface-to-air mis-
siles to knock down planes. He's wait-
ing to see that Hamas will shoot the
hundreds of missiles that they have into
the northern part of Israel. Israel would
retaliate against Hamas and Syria,
obliging Egypt and Jordan to join.
"For the first time in history —
and what worries me the most —
the key to all three scenarios
depends on Arafat," he said. "Israel
can only react." 1.1

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