MUHAMMAD DAHLAN
The director of preventive security in
Gaza for the PA, holding the rank of
colonel, he was born in 1961 in Gaza.
He led the youth organization of Fatah
and was twice expelled to Egypt.
Dahlan spent 1988-93 in Tunis
with Arafat, with whom he became
friendly, becoming active in the
Western Sector of the PLO, includ-
ing its operations branch, carrying
out attacks against Israel. He repre-
sented the PA in talks with Israel,
specifically on questions of return of
expellees and freeing prisoners, and
has met regularly with counterparts
from Israeli security organs to coordi-
nate cooperation in security fields.
He is generally seen as the youngest
and most telegenic of the potential suc
cessors, although that is not necessarily
an advantage in the Arab world. He
faces severe opposition from mamas
leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin. In a July
interview with a London Arabic paper,
Yassin said 'None of the security chiefs
Arab rulers, has no official deputy.
Abbas, often known as "Abu
Mazen," has long been a prominent
figure. He signed the Israeli-
Palestinian Declaration of Principles,
the first of the Oslo Accords, at the
historic White House ceremony in
September 1993. And left-wing
Israeli politicians such as Shulamit
Aloni, Yossi Beilin and Yossi Sarid
have not hidden their regard for him
as a negotiator.
After Arafat was taped making
extreme statements calling for jihad
— holy war — against Israel, Aloni,
the former Israel minister of educa-
tion, said, "Well, at least there is
Abu Mazen." It was a reflection of
the view that Abu Mazen was not
terrorist, did not have a military past
and thus was someone with whom a
future settlement could be finalized.
Some Israeli leftist and Palestinian
moderates also speak of Ahmad
Qreia, the speaker of the Palestinian
Legislature known as "Abu Ala," as
another potential successor who
would use diplomacy rather than
violence. Like Abu Mazen, Abu Ala
has been active in talks with Israel
and has a base in the Fatah move-
ment, but without a military past.
But members of the Israeli right
and others say he is far from the
front-runner to succeed Arafat.
Instead, they suggest that the leading
contender is Jibril Rajoub, the
is ready to succeed President Arafat
because the Palestinian people will not
accept military rule."
JIBRIL RAJOUB (ABU RAMO
The powerful head of preventive
security in West Bank, he was born
in Dura, near Hebron, in 1953. He
was sentenced to life imprisonment
for terror activities in 1970 but freed
in May 1985 as part of exchange deal
masterminded by terror chief Ahmad
fibril in which about 1,000
Palestinians were released in return
for six Israeli soldiers.
He learned Hebrew in jail and
speaks it well, along with English. He
was expelled by Israel to Lebanon in
1988 for activities in the first intifada
and was Arafat's intifada adviser until
his return to the West Bank in 1994.
He has begun appearing regularly
in Palestinian broadcast media, which
helps him preempt organizational
efforts by West Bank rivals such as
Marwan Barghouti of the Tanzim.
commander of the West Bank count-
er-intelligence for the PA who has
been known to have his forces beat
and torture political opponents.
Still, Rajoub's thick, thuggish exte-
rior belies his active intelligence and
political skills. Arafat once actually
"fired" him, but had to recant the
decision because Rajoub was just too
powerful.
Having himself spent many years
in Israeli jails, Rajoub is fluent in
Hebrew and English, and former
Israeli Prime Minister Barak laugh-
ingly referred to the PA intelligence
chief by a Hebrew name: Gavriel
Regev.
"We see that Rajoub is trying to
promote himself and that he does not
let himself get out of the headlines,"
says Avi Yissacharov, the West Bank
reporter for Israel State Radio, Kol
Yisrael. He notes that Rajoub decided
to step up his public posture after
Israeli forces bombed a Palestinian
gun position on his roof that had
opened fire on Israeli soldiers.
Israeli intelligence sources say
Rajoub is the single strongest official
in the West Bank and that he has
solid money reserves, having a stake
in many West Bank businesses,
including the gambling casino in
Jericho. In addition, he is said to have
strong ties to Arafat's own "money
man" — Muhammad Rashid, who is
believed to supervise Arafat's personal
investments and foreign bank
accounts said to be worth several
hundred million dollars.
If Rajoub succeeds to power, it
might offer the best chance for stabili-
ty in the West Bank, along with some
form of continuation of an Israeli-
Palestinian negotiating process.
Rajoub, however, has no power base
in Gaza, where half the population is
linked to the refugee camps. There
the dominant military presence is
Muhammad Dahlan, the dapper
counter-intelligence chief who many
Israeli officers say has personally
directed terror attacks on Israel.
Dahlan, who knows that many
Israelis would like to see him dead,
has avoided any meetings with Israeli
officials, especially after Israeli soldiers
fired at a convoy in which he was rid-
ing. The Israelis say the Palestinians
opened fire, but Dahlan says the
Israelis were trying to assassinate him.
Dahlan is also not liked by Rajoub,
and there is always a possibility that
they could find it hard to work
together after Arafat dies or becomes
incapacitated.
That could lead to a split in the
Palestinian Authority between the
richer and more moderate West Bank
and the poorer, refugee-oriented and
more religiously inspired Gaza Strip.
Some Israeli politicians, such as
Infrastructure Minister Avigdor
Lieberman, say they would like to see
that sort of break-up of the PA into
several parts or cantons, which Israel,
they say, could manage directly or
indirectly.
A further option for succession that
has often been applied in the Arab
world — Egypt and Iraq are notable
examples — is a group leadership.
"Strongmen" like Rajoub and Dahlan
might wield the real power behind
"statesmen" like Abbas and Qreia.
In The Wings
If none of the present contenders can
prevail, thoughts may turn toward a
second tier of leadership, among
whom the fastest rising star is
Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the
militant Tanzim militia that has killed
scores of Israelis in the intifada. In a
recent meeting with foreign corre-
spondents, he raised the possibility
that his organization and Hamas, the
extremist Islamic organization that has
been a kind of "opposition" to Arafat,
will form a national unity regime after
Arafat's death.
If there is a breakdown of the PA,
Hamas — haraka al-muqwwwimma
al-Islamiyya, the Movement for
Islamic Resistance — could prove the
real winner. Hamas has been responsi-
ble for some of the most hideous
attacks on Israeli civilians, and it con-
tinues to reject any idea of making
peace with the Jewish state.
Hamas has both a political and mil-
itary wing, with both external and
internal leaderships. Internally, it is
headed by the aged, wheel-chair-
bound Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, who
might not survive Arafat.
Publicly, Hamas claims it believes in
"democracy," but as historian Bernard
Lewis has observed, this might only
mean democracy until the Islamists
lock onto power, as they have in Iran
and Sudan: one man, one vote, one-
time only.
On the other hand, Hamas strug-
gles with internal rivalries that could
hamper any direct move toward
power.
Because the Palestinian economy is
so weak and dependent upon foreign
aid for the very functioning of the
Palestinian Authority, those who con-
trol the purse will influence, if not
ultimately determine, who succeeds
Arafat. Another important factor,
experts say, will be the business rela-
tionships of the contending leaders
and their offspring who run those
businesses.
In this season of violence, only an
incurable optimist would believe that
the death or forced removal of Arafat
would lead to a speedy Palestinian
rapprochement with Israel or to a
democratic election that empowers a
truly representative new leader.
The history of violent succession in
the Arab world, dating back to the
califs of the prophet Muhammed,
suggests that the Palestinians may well
be at each others throats. The "Arab
Rebellion" of 1936-39, for example,
decimated the Palestinian intelli-
gentsia and set the stage for the 1948
defeat of the Arab states by a fledgling
Israel.
The most wildly unlikely scenario is
also perhaps the least attractive one
from the Israeli viewpoint:
Internecine strife following Arafat's
death or expulsion could open the
door for an outsider like Saddam
Hussein in Iraq or Hosni Mubarak in
Egpyt to take control of the
Palestinians. That sort of outside rule
could easily embrace even more vio-
lence against Israeli civilians and the
further downward spiral toward a dis-
astrous full-scale regional conflict. ❑
Related editorial, page 27
8/17
2001
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