The Tough Guy

Ariel Sharon hopes Palestinian violence will swing Israeli voters to the right.

AVI MACH LIS
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Herzliya, Israel
riel Sharon was in his ele-
ment. Surrounded by gener-
als, senior members of
Israel's intelligence commu-
nity, strategic analysts and supporters of
his Likud Party, Sharon arrived in
Herzliya last week to address a confer-
ence on Israel's security agenda.
Just a few days before, Sharon had
benefited from a stroke of fate when for-
mer Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu dropped his drive to take over
the Likud Party. That left Sharon, the
72-year-old former general, as default
party leader and Likud candidate for the
premiership against Prime Minister Ehud
Barak in the Feb. 6 election.
Now, in Herzliya, the man known as
"The Bulldozer" strolled calmly to the
podium, his confidence buoyed by his 18-point lead
in opinion polls, to lay out his strategic vision for
Israel and the region. After so many years as one of
the most controversial figures in Israeli politics, he
knew that the violent Palestinian uprising had creat-
ed a golden opportunity to swing Israelis over to his
side.
"It is impossible to reach a permanent peace,
because Jerusalem cannot be divided," Sharon told
the conference as Israeli and Palestinian negotiators
struggled to reach the basis for such an agreement in
Washington.
The basis for any agreement, Sharon added, must
be "a long-term interim accord without a timetable,
because we have now seen what happens with a
timetable."
Step by step, over many years, Israel should con-
tinually monitor its relationship with the
Palestinians before concessions are made, Sharon
said. But he offered no populist, militant calls to hit
the Palestinians harder, as many right-wing Israelis
demand.
Sharon suggested that the Palestinians be given
connected territory, while Israel maintains its grip on
sizable strategic zones. He did not explain how this
strategy, which falls well short of Palestinian
demands, would quell the violence that has trauma-
tized Israel since late September.

A

`Time Not Against Us'

He laid out a broader strategic prognosis for the
region as the basis for his Palestinian plan.
"In contrast to conventional wisdom, in my opinion
time is not working against us," Sharon said. "It may
very well be that the windows of opportunity in the

12/29
2000

24

follow orders is believed to have cost him a
chance to be army chief of staff.
Overshadowing all else in Sharon's resume
is his role as the architect of Israel's 1982
invasion of Lebanon as defense minister
under Prime Minister Menachem Begin.
Many Likud supporters still defend Sharon's
decisions in Israel's most unpopular war, but
the peace camp will likely use the war
against him in the election campaign.
Sharon was forced to resign as defense
minister after a commission found him
indirectly responsible for the massacre of
Palestinians in the Sabra and Shatila refugee
camps because he failed to anticipate the
carnage Israel's Lebanese Christian allies
would wreak there.
"Ariel Sharon is a symbol of Israel's rejec-
tionist, warmongering minority," said Didi
Remez, spokesman for Peace Now. "He is
personally responsible for the Lebanon war,
which led to the deaths of over 1,000
Israelis and countless Lebanese and
Palestinians."

The Temple Walk

Sharon's decision in late September to visit
the Temple Mount in Jerusalem's Old City,
flanked by hundreds of security men, will
probably prove less controversial in the
campaign. Though the Arab world — and
Ariel Sharon
future will be greater and more convenient."
much of the West — sees Sharon's visit as
fends off
This, explained Sharon, was based on
the spark for the current unrest, most
reporters as he
research indicating that Arab oil-producing
Israelis believe the Palestinians used it as a
arrives for a
countries may face a severe economic crisis
pretext for violence.
in 10 to 15 years as Western countries intro- conference on
Still, it will not be easy to balance Sharon's
duce electric cars and global demand for fuel Israel's security
warrior image with the pragmatism and
agenda in
declines. When Arab states are weakened
commitment to peace most Israelis demand.
Herzliya on
economically, Sharon argued, the dangers to
"He has to keep the support of the right
Dec. 21.
Israel will decline.
and make them happy, while making the
Strategists from Israel's peace camp have
center happier than it is," explained Zalman
argued that peace must be made as soon as
Shoval, a senior Likud member and Israel's former
possible because a window of opportunity that
ambassador to the United States.
opened after the Gulf War and the fall of the Soviet
Ironically, some Likud ideologues worry that Sharon
Union could close when Iran achieves nuclear capa-
is too pragmatic; as Begin's defense minister, he sanc-
bility. But even analysts who do not subscribe to that
tioned the evacuation of Israeli settlements in Sinai for
vision questioned Sharon's thinking.
peace with Egypt. And though Sharon stands by his
"Oil pricing and production are notoriously vari-
promise never to shake the hand of Palestinian
able, and you cannot pin a strategic position on such
Authority President Yasser Arafat, he negotiated the
a thing," said Professor Barry Rubin, a Middle East
Wye accords as Netanyahu's foreign minister in 1998.
expert at Bar-Ilan University. "And the weakening of
Members of the Likud overwhelmingly preferred
Arab states is by no means to Israel's advantage,
to make Netanyahu their candidate, but now the
because that can lead to internal instability and radi-
party is expected to rally behind Sharon.
calism."
His current chances seem better than ever. A Gallup
In the coming campaign, Sharon will try to por-
poll published in the Israeli daily Ma'ariv indicated
tray himself as the only leader capable of delivering a
that Sharon would trounce Barak if elections were held
lasting peace that satisfies Israel's needs. Given his
today, and not even a lightning peace deal would dra-
controversial background, it will require a tricky bal-
matically improve the incumbent's chances.
ancing act.
According to the poll, voters would reject the
In the 1950s, Sharon founded an elite unit that
peace
deal if it were tied to a vote for Barak. If a sep-
launched bloody reprisal raids against Palestinians in
arate referendum on a peace agreement took place
Jordan, which then controlled the West Bank. In the
alongside the vote for prime minister, Israelis likely
early 1970s, Sharon crushed Palestinian militants in
would approve the deal. But they would choose
the Gaza Strip.
Sharon to implement it, and he has said he will not
He also distinguished himself as a brilliant strate-
honor an agreement that Barak signs in the pre-elec-
gist in the Sinai campaigns of the 1967 and 1973
tion period. iH
wars, but his impetuousness and his unwillingness to

