Rise Of Christian Right

Democratic Jewish majority in key
states.
Lichtman said the return of Jews to the
Democratic fold was the result of more
But the raw numbers do not tell the
than just conflict over the Middle East.
whole story, Brooks said.
"After 1988, the Republicans were
"According to all the polls, we're going
increasingly seen as dominated by the
to see one of the closest races in modern
Christian right, which caused real con-
history," he said. 'And if that's true, even
cern for Jewish voters," he said. 'And the
small changes in the Jewish vote could
Democrats were seen as moving back to
make a big difference. Whatever votes
the center; Jesse Jackson faded as a con-
we can peel away into our column could
cern for many."
have a significant impact, especially in
Bill Clinton's tenure at the White
swing states."
House cemented that return to the
Howard Friedman, a leading pro-
Democratic fold. Despite harsh
Israel activist on the national scene and a
criticism from the Jewish right,
major Gore-Lieberman
President Clinton has won
fund raiser, said "the
strong praise from most Jewish
Jewish vote won't matter if
leaders for his strongly pro-
it isn't a tight race. But if it
Israel policies, and he appoint-
is close, the big Jewish
ed more Jews to high positions
populations in Illinois,
than any other president.
Ohio, Pennsylvania,
The Jewish-Democratic link
Florida and Michigan will
was reinforced further by an
be very important."
Whom do you
aggressively conservative
The Lieberman candi-
feel won the
Republican leadership in
dacy,
Friedman said, could
presidential debate
Congress, especially after the
boost Jewish turnout; in
on Tuesday and the
GOP takeover in 1994.
swing states with big
vice-presidential
"After that, the perception
Jewish populations, such
debate on
was that the Republican leader-
as Florida, that could
Thursday, and why?
ship in Congress was dominat-
make a significant elec-
ed by the extreme right —
Give your opinion on
toral difference. About 6
JN Online at
whether on church-state issues,
percent of the Florida elec-
www.detroit
abortion, even the economy,"
torate is Jewish, so a big
jewishnews.com
said Ira Forman, executive
turnout in that communi-
director of the National Jewish
ty could help push the
Democratic Council. The
state, previously consid-
NJDC is a partisan group created, in
ered a lock for Bush, into
part, as a response to worries about
the Democratic column.
declining Jewish support in the late
1980s.
Congressional Races
"Proposals like shutting down the
Education Department didn't make
The Jewish impact also could be signifi-
sense to a lot of Jews," Forman said.
cant in selected congressional races.
The GOP's close relationship with
The most obvious example is the bit-
radical anti-gun groups also is troubling
ter race in New York to fill the Senate
to the Jewish community, which
seat being vacated by Daniel Patrick
remains one of the strongest backers of
Moynihan, a Democrat.
gun control.
Both Democrat Hillary Rodham
Vice President Gore, a Democratic
Clinton and Rep. Rick Lazio, her
centrist and longtime supporter of Israel,
Republican opponent, are investing
seems like an easy inheritor of Clinton's
heavily in wooing Jewish voters. Its the
Jewish mantle.
only election in the country in which
In the 1980s, Jewish Republicans pre-
Jonathan Pollard and Palestinian anti-
dicted they were nearing a critical mass
Semitism are major campaign issues.
that would launch them to majority sta-
"There's a really good chance the
tus in the Jewish community; in 2000,
Jewish vote will determine the winner,"
they talk wistfully about the possibility
said the NJDC's Ira Forman. "Ms.
of breaking the 15 percent barrier in the
Clinton needs at least 60 percent to
presidential contest.
overcome Lazio's lead in the suburbs and
upstate; at this point, it looks like she
could get it."
The Swing States
In Michigan, strong Jewish and pro-
Matthew Brooks, executive director of
Israel support could be a major factor in
the Republican Jewish Coalition, admit-
the re-election bid of Sen. Spencer
ted as much when he said that the goal
Abraham, a one-term Republican who is
of the GOP this year is to try to chip off
JEWISH VOTE on page 22
a few percentage points from the big

Absent, Not Forgotten

S

ome 70,000 Americans living in Israel are eligible to vote in the
U.S. presidential election. This year, the percentage of those cast-
ing absentee ballots is expected to rise to some 80 percent, mainly
because of Sen. Joseph Lieberman's vice-presidential candidacy for the
Democrats.
Political experts say 95 percent of the Americans living in Israel are
from key, closely contested states — California, Florida, Illinois,
Michigan, New Jersey New York and Pennsylvania — so their
50,000 or so votes could actually play a role in the election overall.
It is not only the Lieberman candidacy that will cause most
Americans in Israel to support the Democrats, says Dave Froehlich,
long active in Democrats Abroad.
"We remember the last Bush administration, which wasn't very
friendly to Israel," Froehlich said, adding, "we have every reason to
fear that George's son will be far worse than his father in this respect.
My friends and I are also influenced by the fact that the Republican
candidate opposes free choice where abortion is concerned, favors the
rich over the poor and is supported by reactionary elements like the
Christian Coalition and the National Rifle Association.
Eliyahu Weinstein, who is chairman of Republicans Abroad, Israel,
says that he and his compatriots support the Republican candidate
because, among other things, Bush is determined to abolish the estate
tax, favors a strong defense policy and, so they believe, will be less
likely to pressure Israel into trading land for an ephemeral promise of
peace.
Lieberman, Weinstein's group argues, won't make any difference in
this respect, because Gore will listen instead to "the left-wing Jews"
left over from the Clinton Administration. ❑

— Nechemiah. Meyers, Israel correspondent

Counting Votes

trictly speaking, there is no "Jewish vote." Jews, like other ethnic,
lOreligious or cultural blocs, vote as individuals and make their
decisions on the basis of a wide range of issues — such as the state of
the economy or a candidate's character — that have no direct link to
specifically Jewish concerns.
Thus, measuring the Jewish vote is in part an exercise in advanced
statistics and an equal part of educated guesswork.
When pundits and partisans talk confidently about a party or a
candidate getting a certain percentage of the Jewish vote, they're rely-
ing primarily on exit polls done for a consortium of television and
print media.
In a presidential election, the poll involves a nationwide sample of
between 15,000 and 20,000 voters. Pollsters ask about demographic
factors, such as income, race and religion, as well as for whom the
interviewee voted.
Because Jews are slightly less than 3 percent of the population, the
Jewish sample is rarely more than 600 voters, which means they may
not precisely reflect the entire Jewish community. Democratic pollster
Mark Mellman estimated that the margin of error could be as high as
5 or 6 percent; if 80 percent of the Jews polled said they voted for
Gore, the nationwide tally could be as high as 86 percent or as low as
74 percent.
The pre-election media polls generally don't try to determine the
Jewish vote, again because it is exceptionally costly to get reliable
numbers when the population percentage is so small. The pundits
continue to take clues from looking at voting patterns in districts
with high, sometimes dominant, Jewish populations. In practice, they
are looking at a handful of spots in or around New York City that
may not reflect Jewish feelings in other parrs of the country ❑

— James D. Besser

10/6
2000

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