V4.4:1R.K>pi

VA*

Road To The White House

JEWISH VOTE from page

Thursday through
October 12 — 13
with special appea
owner-designer

14

NAM 2A

Reproduction o f
antique jewelry,
Victorian and Art
Noveau Design,
24-carat
Greek-style with
semi-precious stones.
Hand made
modern-style in gold &
sterling silver.

7

considered one of the Senate's most vul-
nerable incumbents, according to the
RJC's Brooks.
"Sen. Abraham has done a very good
job in building support from Jewish
leaders," Brooks said. "Given the state's
big Jewish population, that is likely to be
a major factor."
That support is particularly interesting
because Abraham, an Arab-American,
has accomplished an act of political
acrobatics by balancing the concerns of
that community, an important con-
stituency in Michigan, with the state's
big and politically active Jewish commu-
nity.
The Jewish role will be significant, if
less dramatic, in a handful of House
races across the country as the
Democrats try to win back their domi-
nant position on Capitol Hill.
In California, three Jewish Democrats
have a good shot at the House, includ-
ing former Rep. Jane Harmon, State
Sen. Adam Schiff and Susan Davis, a
member of the State Assembly.
In Florida, State Rep. Bloom is given a
good chance of unseating Republican
Rep. Clay Shaw in a district that is both
heavily Democratic and Jewish.
Lauren Beth Gash, a Jewish Democrat
in a Chicago suburb, is facing off against
Republican Mark Steven Kirk for an
open House seat.
These candidates could get a big lift
from the Lieberman candidacy.

The Turnout Factor

Are pleased to announce their association with

Walter M. Belenky, M.D.

Limited to Pediatric Otolarnygology (ENT)
Adult and Pediatric Ear, Nose and Throat Disorders

Snoring and Sleep Apnea Surgery
Nose and Sinus Disorders
Voice Disorders
Ear Disorders
Hearing Aids

10/6
2000

22

Offices in: outhfield, Novi, Livonia and West Bloomfield
ointments: 248-569 5985

The turnout factor is especially impor-
tant in Democratic calculations.
Although reliable statistics are unavail-
able, most experts agree: Jewish turnout
is significantly higher than the national
average. According to most estimates, 60
to 70 percent of eligible Jewish voters
turn out for major elections; the overall
turnout has slipped below 50 percent.
That means the Jewish vote tends to
count for more than raw numbers sug-
gest.
A warning, however, conies from
Gilbert Kahn, a political scientist at
Kean University in New Jersey who has
studied the Jewish vote. "There is a
decline in Jewish voting, registration and
activism," he said. "We're still way ahead
of the national population in terms of
voting — Jewish turnout is in excess of
but it's
75 percent in some places
declining. It used to be over 90."
Jews are declining as a proportion of
the electorate; increasingly, other voting
groups are outgunning Jews in terms of
raw numbers.
"The real power in the future is the
Hispanic vote," Kahn said. "They have

incredible potential clout, but they have
not yet learned to exploit it."
And the Hispanic vote swings, making
it worth active outreach efforts by both
parties.
Blacks, Kahn said, continue to be even
more overwhelmingly Democratic than
Jewish voters, but turnout is often a
problem. A major get-out-the-vote effort
by the Democrats in 1992 played a sig-
nificant role in Clinton's victory.
Both parties recognize that with Jews
continuing to vote overwhelmingly
Democratic — and with Jewish turnout
relatively high — their outreach dollars
are better spent courting other groups,
where their efforts are likely to make a
difference.
"It's worth it in New York, in the
Clinton-Lazio race, because even a small
Jewish shift could have big conse-
quences," Kahn said. "It's probably not
worth it in most places where the Jewish
vote is marginal."
Political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg
of Johns Hopkins University in
Maryland pointed to one factor that
could magnify the impact of Jews on
Nov. 7: the weather.
"Jews vote no matter what; when the
weather is bad, overall turnout declines.
If there was a category 4 hurricane, the
Jews would be the most important voter
group in the country," he said.

Money And Minds

Regardless of the weather, Jews have
already played a disproportionate role in
campaign 2000 in another area: money.
Jews may continue to vote overwhelm-
ingly Democratic, but their political giv-
ing is more bipartisan. Brooks estimates
that 20 to 30 percent of the war chest of
candidate Bush comes from Jews.
"A record percentage of Republican
money this year came from Jewish
givers," Brooks said. "The Rind-raising
leadership of the party is comprised
almost entirely of Jewish leaders. The
leadership of the RJC has contributed
more than $7 million to the Republican
National Committee."
Overall, Jewish money still favors the
Democrats, said political scientist
Benjamin Ginsberg. But the equation
involves more than dollars, he said.
"On the Democratic side, Jews are
heavily represented among parry
activists, workers and strategists. They're
the real backbone of the Democratic
vote. In 2000, the Jewish vote isn't likely
ro be very important in most states. But
their campaign activism is critical; with-
out that, the Democrats couldn't win. If
the Jews withdrew from the party, the
Democrats would be crippled." 7

—

