Affordability in Memory Care

peace agreement, Israel would be the
first nation to recognize the new
Palestinian state. With both Israeli and
American approval, the newly born
state would gain instant worldwide
recognition.

Scenario II

In a second scenario, employing a
palette of bleak tones, Arafat makes
the declaration in the absence of a
final peace accord and Israel responds
with political countermeasures of its
own.
Palestinian threats to declare inde-
pendence have long been part and
parcel of the negotiations with Israel.
Last year; Arafat threatened to
declare a state on May 4, 1999, the
fifth anniversary of the start of
Palestinian self rule. In response, then
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
threatened to unilaterally annex parts
of the West Bank.
Arafat refrained at the time from
making the declaration because he did
not want it to become an issue in the
Israeli elections — which, according
to most analysts, would have played
into the hands of Netanyahu.
Adopting a stance from
Netanyahu's playbook, Barak has said
that Israel would take its own unilater-
al actions — including annexing
Jewish settlements in the West Bank
— if Arafat declares a state.
Avoiding specific threats, a
spokesman for Barak would only say
this week that the issue of Palestinian
statehood "is currently subject to
negotiations, therefore any Palestinian
entity will be the result of the present
negotiations."

Scenario III

A third scenario is painted in gray: It
is of a unilateral declaration, which
would in effect remain on paper with
no actual measures on the ground.
Israeli intelligence expert's view this
scenario as probable, as long as the
Palestinians see a chance for an accord
with Israel.
The intelligence department of the
Israeli army has noted that, contrary
to doomsday prophecies following the
collapse of the Camp David summit,
the West Bank and Gaza Strip have
been exceptionally quiet.
Even if Arafat does declare a state,
it is unclear how significant the move
would be.
During his current post-Camp
David tour of foreign capitals, Arafat
met with Turkey's leaders in Ankara

and tried to drum up their support
for a Palestinian declaration of inde-
pendence.
Bulent Ecevit, Turkey's premier,
reminded Arafat that Turkey had
already recognized Palestinian inde-
pendence back in November 1988,
when the PLO first proclaimed an
independent state. The declaration
had no political significance at the
time. It may be just as insignificant
now.
Israeli Justice Minister Yossi Beilin,
a staunch supporter of an independent
Palestinian state, is among those who
hold this view. "Without the recogni-
tion of Israel, the declaration of inde-
pendence would be meaningless," he
said.
This drew a tart retort frosm
Palestinian minister Abu Ziad.
"He can analyze whatever he wish-
es, but the declaration of indepen-
dence is very meaningful for us," he
said. "The purpose of Arafat's present
tour is to secure as wide as support as
possible for our independence, and I
am sure we will gain such recognition,
including European recognition."

Scenario IV

The fourth scenario is painted in
blood:
Arafat declares independence, thou-
sands of Palestinians take to the streets
and stage attacks against Israeli settle-
ments and traffic arteries in the terri-
tories. The attacks soon deteriorate
into pitched battles between
Palestinian policemen and Israeli sol-
diers.
Yisrael Harel, a fellow at the
Hartman Institute in Jerusalem and a
columnist for the Israeli daily Ha'aretz,
ruled out this scenario.
In his view, a confrontation over an
independent Palestinian state is
unlikely because "one way or another,"
Arafat will eventually gain the
approval of Barak.
Harel, a former chairman of the
Yesha Council, which represents
Jewish settlers in the West Bank and
Gaza Strip, does not anticipate vio-
lence once a Palestinian state is pro-
claimed.
Even if the Palestinians do opt for
violence, the end result will be the
same, according to Harel. "Israel is not
built to cope with low-intensity con-
flicts, and Arafat will not engage in an
all-out war," he said.
Even if Arafat opts for a Palestinian
uprising, he said, "I have no doubts
that at the end of the day Israel will
consent to a Palestinian state." ❑

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