A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli
troops from Lebanon would deprive
Assad of this leverage.
According to several analysts, Syria
also opposes the withdrawal because it
would throw a harsh spotlight on its
own continued presence in Lebanon,
where it maintains 35,000 troops.
An Israeli withdrawal, these analysts
say, could increase pressure on Syria to
leave, too.
Whatever their thinking, Syrian
and Lebanese officials are now resort-
ing to threats in order to deter Barak
from his course.
The latest of these came Over the
weekend, when the Lebanese defense
minister announced that if Israel
leaves, the Syrian army might deploy
along the Israeli-Lebanese border.
For 24 years, ever since Syria's first
incursion into Lebanon in 1976,
.
Damascus has been careful not to
move its troops south of Sidon under
an unwritten agreement with Israel.
If it did so now, it would raise ten-
sions between the two countries.
Syria itself was quick this week to
dissociate itself from the Lebanese
minister's assertion.
For its part, Israel was slow to
react officially, deliberately giving
Damascus time to defuse the poten-
tial bombshell.
On that level, at least, the two spar-
ring partners still read each other
clearly - and understand their corn-
mon interests.
But the danger of armed exchanges,
which could quickly escalate to draw
in the Syrians, will still be present fol-
lowing an Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah gunmen or Palestinian
groups that oppose the Oslo peace
process, attacking across the border,
could trigger massive Israeli retalia-
tions against Lebanon.
G iven the high concentration of
Syrian troops, civilians and economic
interests on Lebanese soil, a confronta-
tion between Israel and Syria could
well occur.
Israel is turning now to Annan and
the international community in an
effort to reduce that risk.
The U.N. Interim Force in
Lebanon, UNIFIL, has been in the
southern portion of the country,
where it has not done very much, for
more than 20 years.
Now, possibly, it could finally come
into its own as a genuine peacekeeping
mechanism and implement its man-
date under Resolution 425, which
calls on it to help the Lebanese gov-
ernment restore control over the
southern portion of the country. ❑
.:.•.r.A;0007:77
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