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Peace In The North?

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Israel's plan to pull out of Lebanon may have
brought Syria to the table.

GIL SEDAN

Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

7

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12/17
1999

16

AR

he key to getting Israeli-
Syrian officials back to the
negotiating table may well
have been Israeli policy
toward Lebanon.
For months, Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud Barak has stated that he plans
to withdraw his troops from southern
Lebanon by next July.
Last week, during a series of tele-
phone calls between President
Clinton and Syrian President Hafez
Assad, Clinton made it clear that
when Barak speaks about withdrawal
in July, he means withdrawal and he
means July.
For years, Syria has used Hezbollah
gunmen in southern Lebanon as a
proxy, giving them the green light to
step up attacks on Israeli forces to
force Israeli concessions — particular-
ly regarding the Golan Heights,
whose return Syria wants as part of
any peace deal.
But a unilateral withdrawal of
Israeli troops from Lebanon would
deprive Assad of a key card.
Moreover, such a withdrawal, out-
side the context of negotiations with
Syria or Lebanon, would mean that
Syrian interests in Lebanon would not
be guaranteed — something Assad
could bargain for within the talks.
From the Israeli standpoint, a
withdrawal from Lebanon after reach-
ing an agreement with Syria — and
presumably with the Lebanese, too —
would be preferable to a unilateral
withdrawal.
Indeed, the possibility of a relative-
ly painless withdrawal from Lebanon
— one that is accompanied by guar-
antees of security along Israel's north-
ern border — creates one of Israel's
most compelling reasons for resuming
talks with Damascus.
Over the years, Hezbollah inflicted
heavy losses in attacks on Israeli
troops patrolling the nine-mile-wide
security zone that Israel carved out in
1985 to defend its northern commu-
nities.
Syria, the main power broker in
Lebanon, maintains 35,000 troops
there — a fact that Israel studiously

avoids discussing, saying officially that
it is between the Lebanese and the
Syrians.
Unofficially, however, Israel is more
than willing to have the Syrian sol-
diers stay on because they are the
most reliable guarantor of stability in
Lebanon.
Syria, meanwhile, is already talking
about including Lebanon in its talks
with Israel. "We think that progress
on the Syrian and Lebanese fronts will
be simultaneous," said Syrian Foreign
Minister Farouk al-Sharaa. "We hope
to reach a peace agreement that will
lead to an Israeli withdrawal from
southern Lebanon and the entire
occupied Golan at the same time."
Israel expects Syria to restrain
Hezbollah's operations, but Hezbollah
has adopted a facade of indifference
to the resumption of Israeli-Syrian
talks. We shall continue our attacks
on Israeli targets in southern Lebanon
despite the renewal of the peace
talks," said Sheik Na'im Kassem,
Hezbollah's deputy secretary-general.
Last week, a day after Clinton's
dramatic announcement about the
resumption of Israeli-Syrian talks,
Hezbollah dispatched a commando
unit to hit an Israeli target in the
security zone.
As it turned out, Israeli troops
spotted the unit and killed several of
its members. But Hezbollah kept up
the heat, attacking an Israeli patrol
and an army position in the center of
the zone.
That incident was followed by
exchanges of fire throughout the
weekend, culminating with Israeli air
raids on Hezbollah targets.
It remains unclear whether
Lebanon, too, will enter talks with
Israel. While it appears unlikely that
Lebanon will run counter to Syrian
interests, Beirut's interests are not nec-
essarily congruent with those of
Damascus.
"Syria cannot compel Lebanon to
normalize relations with Israel,"
Middle East analyst Zvi Bar'el, an
expert on Lebanon affairs, wrote this
week in the Israeli daily Hakretz.
Along with seeking the withdrawal
of Israeli troops from its soil, the
Lebanese government wants Israel to
take in some 350,000 Palestinian
refugees currently living in Lebanon.1 1