Second, doubts are growing within
presidential circles that his son and
heir, Bashar, a former ophthalmolo-
gist, will be either willing or able to
succeed him, despite years of groom-
ing.
Third, Barak has pledged to with-
draw — unilaterally, if necessary —
from Israel's security zone in southern
Lebanon by next July. That move
would undercut Assad's excuse for
keeping some 40,000 troops in
Lebanon, deprive him of his proxy
war, via Hezbollah, against the Israeli
presence, and thus remove a key nego-
tiating card from his deck.
Fourth, Clinton's presidency is near-
ing its end, and Assad must calculate
that the outgoing American president,
with nothing to lose and much to gain,
will be prepared to pressure Israel to
make the concessions in order to crown
his Middle East diplomatic efforts.
As Seale noted last Friday, "Clinton
is anxious to end his second term with
a spectacular foreign policy success
that will enhance the record of his
eight-year presidency and erase the
memory of the shameful Monica
Lewinsky affair."
All four elements have apparently
combined to override Assad's previous
inhibitions and all four bear heavily
on his decision to go for a deal now.
Above all, said a senior Arab politi-
cal source, as Assad's powers wane, his
attention is focused almost obsessively
on the succession and on his desper-
ate, seemingly losing battle to pro-
mote Bashar.
Having witnessed the seamless
transition of power when Jordan's
young King Abdullah succeeded his
late father, King Hussein, last
February, Assad is now apparently
banking on an alliance with Israel as a
means of securing the Syrian succes-
sion for his son.
But it is uncertain whether Bashar
has the natural authority or even the
stomach for the job in a state where
the cult of personality has been elevat-
ed to an art form.
There are constitutional obstacles
to Bashar's succession. He is 35 years
old, and the constitution says that the
president must be at least 40.
Moreover, he holds no official posi-
tion within either the ruling Ba'ath
Party or the government.
Even if those formidable, but large-
ly technical, problems can be over-
come, there are other more difficult
hurdles in front of Bashar.
After intensive efforts to prepare
him for the presidency since the pre-
mature death of his brother, Basel, in
a mysterious car crash five years ago,
Bashar has yet to win the respect of
the military, political and economic
power centers in Damascus.
Waiting in the wings with increas-
ing impatience is Assad's 63-year-old
brother, Rifa'at, a former Syrian vice
president who was exiled in 1986 after
an abortive coup. He still commands
widespread support among the Assad
family's minority Alawite sect in Syria.
Rifa'at, who is said to be enthusias-
tic for peace with Israel and to have
held secret talks with Israeli officials, is
so popular that Assad waited until
February 1998 before formally strip-
ping him of his post and expelling
him from the party
Those moves, however, failed to
blunt his popularity. Rifa'at is said to
have amassed a fortune from drug-
smuo-a
bb lina in Lebanon and to divide
his time between homes in Paris and
the posh European resort of Marbella.
After rounding up some 1,000 of
his supporters in September, Assad's
attempt to storm Rifa'at's Syrian
stronghold in the Mediterranean port
city of Latakia — a 13,692-square-yard
compound, complete with its own port
— was thwarted by Rifa'at's well-
armed, well-trained private militia.
Last month, Assad made no mis-
take when a combined air, sea and
ground operation succeeded in over-
coming Rifa'at's loyalists and
destroyed the compound in what was
described as "a bloodbath."
Still, Rifa'at retains substantial sup-
port and remains a potent challenger
for succession when Assad leaves the
scene: "The Alawites know that
Bashar is not strong enough to protect
them, and they are hoping Rifa'at will
take over," the Arab source said.
"Despite the efforts of Hafez to put
him down and show who's boss," the
source added, "they know that Rifa'at
is capable of taking care of their inter-
ests.
Assad made important concessions
that permitted Clinton, when
announcing the resumption of talks,
to fudge the issue of just where nego-
tiations had reached when they were
broken off in 1996.
Perhaps for health reasons, howev-
er, Assad is continuing to refuse to
meet the Israeli leader face to face
during negotiations: "He will wait
until agreement is reached on a full
peace package before shaking hands
with Barak on the White House
lawn," Seale explained.
That moment, say Israeli and
Syrian officials, may now be just a
matter of months away. El
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