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relations to the test, but a national
unity government with Labor could
produce movement on the Oslo front,
although not as much as the adminis-
tration is likely to demand.
Either way, Alpher added, "There
will inevitably be growing tensions
with the Palestinians and the adminis-
tration."
But in pre-election Israel, the
United States and Palestinians now
have better discussions on what's
called "final status issues" —
Jerusalem, settlements, Palestinian
borders — than the Americans and
Israelis. "Thar is an extraordinary
development, and it will change the
equation no matter what happens in
the election," said Alpher.
Administration officials also worry
that a Netanyahu victory and the for-
mation of a religious/right wing gov-
ernment could spur new violence,
undercut Yasser Arafat and boost
attempts to use the United Nations or
the European Union as engines in the
peace process. This is a move that a
frustrated United States might
endorse, said Baltimore Hebrew
University President Robert 0.
Freedman.
But a Barak victory, several
observers said, could prompt a crisis
of inflated expectations.
"There is an exaggerated sense of
the progress that can be made if a
Labor government comes in," said
Henry Siegman, director of the
Mideast program at the Council on
Foreign Relations. "That's particularly
true within the Palestinian population
— but also in Washington."
A new Labor government, he said,
would probably move quickly to
implement the Wye accords and start
permanent status negotiations.

"But," he added, "there is a down
side. It means they will reach a discus-
sion of the very contentious final status
issues much more quickly. That will be a
sober shock to everybody that the dis-
tance between the Israeli position as rep-
resented by Labor and the Palestinian
demands remains wide indeed."
If expectations of a quick turn-
around in the talks are dashed, Arafat
will be under enormous pressure to
make a move on statehood without
waiting — and a frustrated adminis-
tration in Washington may be more
inclined to go along.
Other observers argue that the real
question is whether any new Israeli
government will cave in to adminis-
tration pressure.
The Clinton team, said Douglas
Feith, a national security official in
the Reagan White House team, "is
hell-bent on creating a Palestinian
state. They are perfectly comfortable
substituting their own judgments
about Israeli security for those of the
Israeli authorities."
So a Netanyahu victory will
increase U.S.-Israel strains as the
administration presses for more terri-
torial concessions, he said, adding
that strong support for Netanyahu in
Congress could be a counterweight.
And Daniel Pipes, editor of Middle
East Quarterly and a leading critic of
administration Mideast policy,
chimed in that recent U.S. promises
of support to Arafat may jeopardize
Israel's security.
"The idea that we are here to solve
the problem, that we can succeed by
pushing the reluctant parties, is fun-
damentally flawed," Pipes said.
That won't change no matter who
is elected on May 17." _1

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The top PLO official in Jerusalem,
Faisal Husseini, leaves the grounds
of Orient House, the PLO head-
quarters in east Jerusalem. Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
had ordered the closure of three
ofices in Orient House, but on
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