Welcome To Palestine

Palestine is on its way. Can American and Israeli Jews
adjust to what that means?

AMOS PERLMUTTER

Special to The Jewish News

Washington

here is little dispute among
the majority of Israelis and
the leading members
throughout the Israeli polit-
ical spectrum that a de facto
Palestinian state exists. Questions for
the next decade include what kind of
a Palestinian state it will be — a
peaceful, cooperative entity between
Israel and Jordan, or a feisty, radical-
ized and politically corrupt regime?
The answers are of serious concern
to the United States and, obviously,
Israel. American Jews, who only now
are beginning to vocalize the word
"Palestine," will have a significant task
in relating their concerns to the U.S.
Congress and the Clinton/Gore
administration and its successors.
Palestine is, as is the peace process,
a study in the making, a political evo-
lution that is no longer a state of
mind, an aspiration, but a reality.
The Oslo Middle East peace

About The Author

Amos Perlmutter, Ph.D., is a
respected international authority
on the Middle East, the Persian
Gulf and U.S. foreign policy.
His main areas of research
military sociology, inter-
national relations and compara-
tive politics.
Since 1972, Dr. Perlmutter
has been professor of political sci-
ence and sociology at the
American University in
Washington, D.C. Among his 15
books are The Life and Times of
Menachem Begin (Doubleday,
1987) and Politics and the
Military in Israel (Frank Cass,
1977). His most recent title is

World Safe for Democracy: the
Legacy ofWilsonians and its
Challengers, (University of North

Carolina Press, 1997.) Pi

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1/8
1999

22 Detroit Jewish News

process (formally scheduled to end in
May) finally has been exhausted.
Oslo was by its nature an interim
agreement, not the basis for a perma-
nent peace settlement between Israel
and the Palestinians.
Meanwhile, the reality of the past
five years has indefinitely and dramati-
cally altered the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict from a primarily military one
to a primarily political one (despite
repeated violence by extremists). But
the obstacles to a permanent peace
remain.
Even with the upcoming Israeli
elections, the question of Palestine's
nature will not go away. However, the
vote only will postpone the implemen-
tation of the recent Wye Agreement
for at least one year. This is true
whether the vote brings a center
Labor-led government or a center
Likud-led one. Even if, as some say,
the peace process is formally declared
dead by a new Likud government,
U.S. and domestic-Israeli pressure will
seek a new avenue for it. Regardless,
the new prime minister must deal
with the Palestine issue. That will be
even more difficult because of the seri-
ous obstacles in forming a cabinet,
due to the collapse of the Israeli politi-
cal system into a free-for-all.
What must concern Israeli and
American Jews is the imminent evolu-
tion of final status negotiations and
the linkage between its issues. They
include:
• Palestinian statehood and its defi-
nitions.
• The status of Jerusalem (who
rules it and how — and what are its
borders?)
• Refugee repatriation, which
includes the right of return and com-
pensation (for Palestinians and poten-
tially for Jews).
• Borders and Israeli settlements
(which ones will stay and which ones
will be incorporated into "settlement
blocks"?)
• Security arrangements (the most
important aspect of all).
Many of these issues will be negoti-
ated simultaneously while the

over the Palestine state and Jerusalem
will not start until final status negotia-
tions begin.
For its part, any Israeli government
must repeatedly and clearly proclaim
that it will annex every piece of
Palestinian territory still in the hands
of Israel if Arafat declares a Palestine
The Remaining Leverage
state preemptively.
Where does Israel have leverage? There
After all, during the original negoti-
is still plenty. The Palestinians cannot
ations, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin
preempt the final status negotiations
made it clear that the Oslo process
on security, land, refugees, compensa-
would include no negotiations over an
tion and settlements as they did on
independent Palestine or the status of
Jerusalem. (See accompanying story,
Jerusalem. If this had not been accept-
"Palestine's Reality, Israel's Response".)
ed by the PLO, there would have been
Israel still dominates 60 percent of
no Oslo.
the Palestinian land. The Israel
All That said, what is the basis for
Defense Forces are highly deployed on
continuing these talks, particularly in
the west bank of the Jordan River, and
light of the occasional violence and
both the mountains and skies of the
sharp divisions they seem to have
Palestinian state are under total domi-
exacerbated?
nation of Israel's security forces. The
Simply put, what the final status
Israelis will determine the number of
negotiations can do for the parties is
Palestinians who became refugees after
exchange security for sovereignty. In
1967 and will be granted the right of
other words, if Israel's security is ful-
return — an estimated 200,000. The
filled, Palestinian sovereignty over land
issue of compensation is clearly in the
will follow. This will depend on the
hands of Israel.
negotiating skills of both parties.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister
But to succeed, there must be an
Binyamin Netanyahu threatens to
acknowledgement that Palestinian sov-
annex whatever Palestinian territory is
ereignty over 50 percent of the land
left if Palestinian Authority Chairman
from the Mediterranean to the Jordan
Yassir Arafat declares a state with
River is the best that can be achieved by
Jerusalem as its capital before the end
the Palestinians. It's also essential for
of final status talks. That's not to
Israel to recognize that the Land of
mean that Ehud Barak, the Labor
Palestine, i.e., the West Bank and Gaza,
Party candidate, won't do the same.
is an existential requirement for the
He has already said he would, as did
Palestinians. Without this, even if all
his mentor Yitzhak Rabin. Amon
the international community recognizes
Lipkin-Shahak, the emerging centrist
Palestine, sovereignty is not meaningful.
candidate and also a Rabin protege,
It is illusory for the Palestinians,
would follow suit.
even under the conditions of an inde-
In order to preempt such a prema-
pendent state, to believe they can and
ture declaration, which would bring
will dominate all the territories mili-
potential military clashes, both the
tarily. Therefore, the security arrange-
United States and Israel have a duty to
ments are the sin qua non of the future
disabuse Arafat of this aspiration.
Palestine state. If they do not conform
The U.S., which Americanized the
to Israeli security requirements, there
Israeli-Palestinian peace process at
will be no real Palestinian sovereignty.
Wye, must publicly declare that Oslo
Let American Jews and Israelis not
was an interim agreement and that the
become euphoric even after a success-
future of Palestine will depend on the
ful final status arrangement. There are
final status negotiations. Further, as a
critical and ongoing security issues
signatory and party to Oslo, the U.S.
related to the reality of the neighbor-
must warn Arafat that negotiations

Palestinians continue their ongoing
effort to preempt the compromises to
be negotiated, especially concerning
Jerusalem and the Palestinian state.
The Palestinians' goal is to leave as lit-
tle as they can for discussion.

H