The Ethnic Shift
Jewish vote loses some of its clout
as other groups gain.
JAMES D. BESSER
Washington Correspondent
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1
OLDN6H
C
ontrary to the ever-hopeful
predictions of the
Republicans, Jewish voters
proved remarkably resistant
to change in this month's
Congressional voting.
But that predictability — Jews
voted overwhelmingly Democratic,
with a few regional exceptions —
belies a seismic shift in ethnic poli-
tics.
Several groups came out of this
year's electoral brawl strengthened, a
message that is being heard loud and
clear by politicians.
The rise of these groups, along
with decreased electoral participation
by Jews, may threaten Jewish political
clout — if community leaders do not
heed this month's wake-up call.
"Assimilation has a political as well
as cultural impact," said a leading
Jewish political analyst. "Fewer Jews
may be voting as Jews."
The raw numbers on NOV. 3 told
an intriguing story. Both parties
actively wooed Jewish voters. In sev-
eral close races, it was expected that
they could provide the margin of vic-
tory.
But when the votes were tallied,
the Jewish vote made a discernible
difference in only a few contests.
Jews voted the way they always
vote, about 80 percent Democratic,
20 percent Republican. There were
variations, but the pattern was clear;
even Sen. Alfonse D'Amato (R-NY),
who received about 40 percent of the
Jewish vote against a Jewish rival six
years ago, sank back to 23 percent,
thanks to .a series of gaffes and an
aggressive campaign by his rival, Rep.
Chuck Schumer.
Jewish "swing" voters, who can go
either way, seemed scarcer than ever.
Despite recurrent predictions that
Jews are shifting to the GOP, political
scientists say a muscular Christian
ri g,14,„,1461
,
a R4ReAkli4,p Congress„.— .
dominated by u14-Lconservatime are
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keeping Jews firm in the
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Democratic side, even though many ,
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Republican party — the party of fis-
cal conservatism and individual free-
dom.
The African American vote was
also a lock for the Democrats. But
the potential size of that bloc — and
the fact that it was pivotal in a hand-
ful of contests — is not passing
unnoticed by political strategists.
In Maryland's gubernatorial con-
test, for example, a last-minute
Democratic get-out-the-vote effort in
the black community propelled the
lackluster incumbent, Parris
Glendening, to a convincing victory
over challenger Ellen Sauerbrey.
Other ethnic blocs are rising even
faster.
The huge Hispanic vote came out
in force, boosting Democrats in
California and Republicans in Texas
and Florida.
Hispanic voters represent an
emerging swing vote, which makes
them a particularly worthwhile
investment for party tacticians. Just
behind them are Asian-American vot-
ers, by some accounts the next great
untapped swing vote.
In a number of states, the message
politicians heard was this: the black
vote is increasingly important to the
Democrats because of the big num-
bers that can be turned out under the
right circumstances, and the bur-
geoning Hispanic community can be
a swing constituency worth fighting
for.
The Jewish community, in con-
trast, is numerically small, increasing-
ly, fragmented and utterly predictable
— a constituency easy to take for
granted, or to write off entirely.
GOP leaders say they're not going
to slacken their Jewish outreach, but
it's hard to see how the parry can jus-
tify the effort, given election after
election of disappointing results.
Democratic officials are confident
the Jews will stay put, leaving them
free to devote greater energy to the
larger but less active black cowman
rY
anatft
cies, t dudint,
Arnert
A shift to
't inter
Republican leadership c-otild:.
—
c.