The World
What Arab Rules Next?
Eight years after
Saddam Hussein
invaded Kuwait, debate
continues about what to
do with the Iraqi leader.
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44 Detroit Jewish News
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have occurred. There is a free wheelin
parliament; there have been truly free
elections. The King and Crown Prince
Hassan, the very able brother and
named successor, need Congress and
other countries to provide economic
assistance as pre-emptive medicine for
Jordanian succession. In that way
preservation of Jordan's alliance with
Israel and the United States can be
DR KENNETH W. STEIN
sustained.
Special to The Jewish News
And Arafat or Assad? Deal with
them
both now, rather than wait
ith Jordan King
either
for lessor known successors, or
Hussein's lymphoma
for
a
collective
future leadership to
announced, questions
winnow out its leader.
have arisen again about
You may argue that neither the
succession there. But what happens
Syrians nor the Palestinians will ever
after Yassir Arafat or Syria's Hafez
make the right noises, make them
Assad?
loud
or continuous enough to satisfy
In much of the Arab world today,
Israeli
apprehensions about Arab
leaders are institutions themselves.
intentions.
But neither will a successor
Those like Saddam Hussein, Arafat,
to either bring their people any closer
and Assad are superb political man-
to accepting Israel's legitimacy. So why
agers. They balance regional, local,
give a strategic advantage of territory
tribal, ethnic, village politics. Their
to either Assad or Arafat today when
authority and power is based on intru-
you
are reasonably sure those territo-
sive security services, military power
ries
will
be used to launch attacks
and inter-connecting intelligence net-
against
Israel
tomorrow?
works. Effectively, they manipulate
Good
argument,
but it precludes
patron-client relationships; sustaining
the possibility, however remote, that
personal careers are inextricably
there will be some attitudinal change
entwined with national priorities.
toward Israel and Israelis over time.
This current crop of Arab leaders
Why do Israelis trust King Hussein?
are not getting younger. Should the
For more than 50 years either he or
United States or Israel mess with their
his
grandfather talked with Israeli
natural succession? No.
leaders. In the mean-
Don't enter into the
time, they went to war.
political thicket of try-
But Israelis trust him
ing to organize Iraqi
and Crown Prince
opposition groups
Hassan, too.
either. Trying to manip-
In signing various
ulate Arab politics from
agreements with
afar doesn't work. With
Arafat, both Rabin and
all its experience and
Netanyahu demon-
skill, Israel tried and
strated
a common
failed for 20 years to
belief that it was better
remake Lebanon into its
to deal with Arafat
preferred image.
today, than with more
Washington consultants,
extreme, radical, or
too, don't have what it
takes. They go home on King Hussein of Jordan is ilL religiously imbued
which raises the question of Palestinian leaders
weekends and water the
tomorrow. Arafat has
succession.
lawn; Saddam, Arafat,
already
made compro-
and Assad take care of
mises
that
successors
their home turf all the
could not have carried off, such as rec-
time. They want to influence their
ognizing Israel. (I did not say Arafat is
own succession.
a liberal, loves Israel, or has done
In Jordan, for a decade, a constitu-
everything Israeli leaders have want-
tional monarchy and devolution of
ed.)
power to the people and parliament
What is for certain, is that the next
generation leadership in Syria and
Dr. Kenneth W. Stein, is professor of
among the Palestinians will not wield
Middle Eastern history and political sci-
the same kind of concentrated power.
ence and director of the Institute for the
No successor regime will have the
Study of Modern Israel at Emory
symbol of commitment to the cause
University in Atlanta.