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4/17
1998
42
Christian right leaders say that if
the party doesn't bend to their
demands, they may bolt the GOP
entirely — although the threat is not
entirely credible, since they have no
place to go.
All of that could be good news
for the Democrats, who seem to
have learned the lessons of strad-
dling and moderation preached by
Mr. Clinton.
Recent history shows that while
running to the right can help candi-
dates seeking the GOP presidential
nomination, it hurts them in the gen-
eral election. The Democrats could
benefit big-time if the Republicans
bow to the pressure from the
Evangelicals, even more if the
Christian right groups leave the par
and push a third-party candidate.
That could solve the Democrats'
biggest problem in 2000
how to
hold on to the White House, even
though their likely champion may be
the most boring candidate since Jerry
Ford and Jimmy Carter put voters to
sleep in 1976.
But there are also dangers.
The Republican leadership may t
to buy off Christian right groups by
pressing harder for their top legisla-
tive goals during this congressional
session and the next, including a
destructive "religious freedom"
amendment to the Constitution that
Jewish groups say would eviscerate
the First Amendment and various
schemes for public funding of reli-
gious schools.
Or, they could continue to tie vital
United Nations and International
Monetary Fund money to restrictive
abortion language, an ongoing gam-
bit that already is harming U.S. for-
eign policy interests.
And there's always the chance that
one of their far-to-the-right candi-
dates could get elected.
Presidential races are generally iif-
erenda on the party in power, with a
particular emphasis on economic fac-
tors. If the economy remains strong
in 2000, the Democratic candidate
— Al Gore or someone else will
be hard to beat, no matter who the
Republicans put up.
But if the stock market bubble
bursts, or if the Asian economic con-
tagion begins costing American work-
ers their jobs, the calculus could
change dramatically.
President Gary Bauer? Not likely
under today's calculus, but a lot of
things could change before the new
millennium dawns. E
L._
Check out the
Plumbers i
in our j
Marketplace i
Home and •
Service Guide.