A SPECIAL REPORT

What If
There's No War?

Saddam will still be in power and the
peace process will remain tattered.

ERIC SILVER

Israel Correspondent

J

erusalem — At the gut level,
most Israelis would cheer
every sortie if the U.S. Sixth
Fleet bombed Saddam Hus-
sein into the Stone Age. At a more
sober level, policymakers would be
quietly relieved to see a diplomatic
solution — so long as it's the right
one.
"We are not pressing the Americans
to strike," a senior Foreign Ministry
official confided. "After all, no one
knows what would be the outcome of
a military strike. Even after a success-
ful attack, it is possible that he would
remain in power."

Unleashed

Israel won't hold back
this time if Saddam
Hussein uses his Scuds.

ALAN HITSKY
Associate Editor

Restraint shown by Israel. in 1991 in
the face of Iraqi missile attacks will
not have to be repeated in 1998,
accordingto a University of Michi-
gan foreign policy expert.
Professor Raymond Tanter, a
national security adviser during the
Bush administration, believes Israel
has the green light from the United
States to defend itself if Iraq threatens
to repeat its 1991 Scud missile
attacks against Israel.
In 1991, it was [Israel Prime
Minister] Yitzhak Shamir's decision
to be restrained and not respond. I
thought it was the correct thing to
do," says Tanter.

2/13
1998

44

Paradoxically, this official added,
armed intervention by the U.S. could
backfire on Israel. "It could well
increase the pressure on the Americans
to prove that they don't apply double
standards. They might lean harder on
Israel after a successful blow just to
show the rest of the Arab world how
even-handed they are."
What, then, would constitute the
right solution? Of utmost importance,
said Barry Rubin, editor of Bar-Ilan
University's Middle East Review of
International Affairs, is thatthe sanc-
tions stay. With them, there will be no
threat to Israel, he said.
That's because Iraq has few missiles
and cannot get new weapons. "He
doesn't have spare parts. He can't

maintain what he's got," Rubin said.
"That's why, this time around, Saddam
has not once threatened Israel." (On
Monday, Iraq said it would not launch
missles against Israel.)
But if there is a diplomatic solution
and Saddam still doesn't fully give into
U.N. demands, Israel could be in
trouble, warned Mark Heller, a
researcher at Tel-Aviv University's Jaf-
fee Center for Strategic Studies.
No matter what happens in the
coming weeks, some analysts see a
strike in the future. "I don't rule out a
diplomatic resolution to this round,"
said Itamar Rabinovich, a former
Washington ambassador, "but I doubt
that over time a significant military
action can be avoided. Saddam
demonstrates time and time again that
he is relentless."
A diplomatic deal is bound to shift
focus back on to the deadlocked
Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But
Jerusalem does not expect the Clinton
Administration to step up the heat on
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
or even Yassir Arafat.
"The administration is increasingly
disenchanted with both parties," said
Rabinovich. "What we are seeing is a

At the time, the
United States was try-
ing to keep its Arab
allies in the alliance
against Iraq and Sad-
dam Hussein hoped an
Israeli response to the
Scuds would pull the
alliance apart.
The physical dam-
age to Israel from the
attacks "was not all
that great," says Tan-
ter, who credited Israel
for its confide.nce and
Raymond Tan ter Israel has a green light.
strength in not
book titled Rogue Regimes: Terrorism
responding.
and Plyliferation (St. Martin's Press),
But today, sa Tapp er, there is no
believes any 4.1 0elifeki***1
.
coalition t6 d he
against Iraq will be massive. "The
advocates a preemptive strike by
government of Israel has always fol-
Israel against Iraq if the Israelis have
lowed a policy of disproportionate
adequate warning of an impending
response. It's not an eye for an eye,
attack. "This isn't like [Israeli Prime
but 10 eyes for one eye, 10 teeth for
Minister] Golcla [heir] in 1973,
one tooth."
when Israel chose to absorb an attack
Tanter worries, however, that Iraq
rather than respond." In 1973, Israel
will lash out at both Tel Aviv and
reportedly had prior knowledge of
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. "If you're
Syria and Egypt's surprise attack on
about to get hit, then you hit at
Yotn Kippur.
everything." Saddam Hussein's moti-
Tanter, who has just published a

return to its original outlook: 'We're
ready to help, but if You can't settle
your problems you must pay the con-
sequences. Maybe after that you'll be
ready to listen.'"
In 1991 the Bush Administration
bought Arab membership of the
Desert Storm coalition with promises
of a more vigorous initiative on the
Israeli front. The immediate result
was the now-forgotten Madrid con-
ference. Such a scenario isn't as likely
this time.
"The peace process was frozen
before Iraq, and it will probably be
frozen after Iraq," said Joseph Alpher,
a strategic analyst and American Jew-
ish Committee Mideast director.
So, if Saddam is put on a back
burner, will Israelis pack up their
neuroses and gas masks? That's
unlikely.
"Next time," Alpher predicted, "the
fears will be greater. A political solu-
tion will still leave Iraq and Iran as
serious potential threats. People will
maintain a general sense of alarm
about missile attacks. And Israelis no
longer believe what our security and
political leaders tell us." 0

vation, Tanter believes,
±.= is the hope that Arab
.7. 5. states who are playing a
game of publicly sup-
porting the United
States will support Iraq
if the United States
strikes at Baghdad.
The Saudis, Tanter
says, while they have
declined the U.S.
request to launch air
strikes from their terri-
tory, have privately told
the United States to hit
Saddam massively.
Saddam Hussein's cat-and-mouse
game with the United Nations' arms
inspectors is a ploy to make the Unit-
ed States wait to see what he does,
Tante'. believes. But the U.S. has
started an automatic clocle which
will probably ignite right after the
-\
winter Olympic Games are concluded
in Japan.
"Without a provocation, it's hard
to start shooting," Tanter says. But
the armed forces will say a bolt out of
the blue is the best strategy I thi
they're going to go."

o

