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JAMES D. BESSER
Washington Correspondent
ews don't reckon time by the
Christian calendar, but it's
hard to ignore the distinctly
apocalyptic feel loose in the
world as we approach the new millen-
hium.
Bio-terrorism, scary new infectious
diseases, radical movements spreading
like biblical plagues, devaluation of
once-robust economies — it's a jittery
time, a feeling that seems to be exag-
gerated by the temporal boundary
we're getting set to cross.
1998 promises to be another roller
coaster ride for all Americans, and that
goes double for a Jewish community
that has special concerns in both
domestic and foreign policy. Some
things to look for:
1. It's the economy, stupid.
American politics is shaped by our
pocketbooks. When things are good,
we invite the party in power back for a
second dance; when were worried, we
think about changing the guest list.
The economy is booming, but
there are alarming portents. South
Korea, Japan and Thailand are plung-
ing into a pit that seems too deep for
the term "recession." American busi-
nesses, banks and financial markets are
sure to suffer as the Far Eastern domi-
noes tumble, although nobody knows
the extent.
By November 1998, when voters
go to the polls to elect the entire U.S.
House of Representatives and one-
third of the Senate, we may have a
glimmer of what's in store for us.
That means lots of political volatili-
ty to match growing financial instabil-
ity. It means uncertain times for con-
gressional incumbents, and even more
of a crap shoot for the 2000 presiden-
tial nominations as the Republicans
search for a candidate — any candi-
date — and the Democrats battle to
see who gets to take up the centrist
mantle of Bill Clinton.
Economic uncertainty also will
shape the agenda of Jewish groups.
Last year, the pressure to cut health
and social welfare programs that began
with the 1994 Republican congres-
sional takeover subsided, thanks to
surging federal revenues and a vanish-
ing deficit, but none of the core prob-
lems — including huge entitlement
programs such as Medicare and
Medicaid — have been addressed.
A downturn will almost certainly
bring that pot back to a boil, and
groups like the Council of Jewish
IT
Federations, which are determined to
preserve a badly frayed social safety
net, could have their work cut out for
them.
So, too, will supporters of aid to
Israel. In late 1997, there were worri-
some signs of a new congressional
restiveness on aid. If the economy
starts to stumble, look for pressure on
Israel's $3 billion to mount rapidly.
2. Church-state follies.
With last year's Supreme Court
decision overturning the Religious
Freedom Restoration Act, Jewish
activists here are focusing on a partial
legislative fix in Congress, due for
introduction in the spring, and a series
of state religious freedom bills to fill in
the gaps.
The Workplace Religious Freedom
Act, which would protect the rights of
Sabbath observers and others whose
religious obligations require special
accommodations from employers, has
finally started to move in Congress.
But getting over the hump will be dif-
ficult.
Christian right groups will continue
their efforts to pass constitutional
amendments and bills expanding the
right to religious expression in public
places, but they also will continue
hobbling themselves with destructive
infighting.
A school prayer amendment pushed
by the Christian Coalition seems on
everybody's slow track, but a new pro-
posal by the Family Research Council
for a "judicial shield" for religious
expression, which will take the form
of ordinary legislation, could be irre-
sistible election year bait for
Republican legislators.
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Prime Minister Netanyahu looks at a
map of the West Bank while considering
giving land to the Palestinians.
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*ArtWAVM,10
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1998
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