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Will It Lead To Wail

On Independence Day, Israel's chief soldier
cautiously warns that there will be a heavy cost to
Israel winning a potential conflict.

INA FRIEDMAN ISRAEL CORRESPONDENT

! srael celebrated a strange In- Israeli-Jordanian relations over
dependence Day last week as the water clauses of the peace
it entered its 50th year and treaty. King Hussein subse-
Binyamin Netanyahu's gov- quently held a secret meeting
ernment looked forward to the with Mr. Netanyahu on this.
Meanwhile, American peace
first anniversary of its electoral
mediator Dennis Ross arrived for
victory.
Yet, the unhappy prospect of talks with Mr. Netanyahu and
war — which so many Israelis Mr. Arafat. So far, there is no re-
had hoped was behind them af- ported progress.
Even more troubling, in a se-
ter the Oslo accords, the peace
treaty with Jordan, and the ries of Independence Day inter-
opening of much of the Arab views, the popular Chief of Staff
world to trade and diplomatic re- Amnon Shahak carefully said,
lations with Israel — have begun "Clearly we're not going to ini-
to seep back into the national tiate a war. But is it possible
there will be a war that's not ini-
consciousness.
In the two weeks leading up tiated by us? Definitely ... I don't
to the holiday, reports said that think that a war is on the
Syria had obtained the formula doorstep, and we don't have to
for producing the deadly VX sit with our finger on the trigger.
nerve gas and is in
the early stages of
mounting it on the
warheads of its
surface-to-surface
missiles. The Syr-
ian government
has denied this. It
made Israelis feel
no easier.
Then came the
references to the
Israel Defense
Forces' lack of pre-
paredness in the
State Comptrol- Yassir Arafat and Ezer Weizman speak to reporters.
ler's annual report.
State Comptroller Miriam Ben- But it's necessary to understand
Porat noted a litany of short- that it can happen."
Asked if he could assure the
comings in the manpower,
equipment, and maintenance of nation that the IDF is capable of
weaponry in the IDF's emer- coping with a war on more than
gency stores. The report also one front, Mr. Shahak replied: "I
found that close to 2 million Is- can promise that the IDF will
raelis are in possession of pro- win the war. But even when a
tection kits (containing gas country wins, [war] has a heavy
masks and an antidote to nerve price.
The "small war" scenario
gas) either unsuited to them or
whose components have passed speaks of a clash with the Pales-
tinians and/or the Hezbollah in
their date of effectiveness.
In July 1996, the government south Lebanon replete with en-
decided to discontinue the pro- emy fire on Israeli settlements
gram to "refresh" these protec- in the territories and rocket fire
tion kits, only to reverse its on civilian centers in the Galilee.
The "big war" scenario speaks
decision in October and extend
of ballistic-missile attacks on Is-
the program for a year.
Scattered in between was a rael's civilian concentrations and
meeting between President Ezer military installations (particu-
Weizman and Palestinian Au- larly air force bases).
Yet, if the enemy's missiles are
thority Chairman Yassir Arafat.
Mr. Weizman says he "broke the armed with nonconventional
ice," but Mr. Arafat still refused warheads, their interception over
to meet directly with Mr. Ne- Israel still holds dangers for the
tanyahu until he changes his pol- civilian population. And if
icy on Har Homa. Also, Jordan bombers are sent out to destroy
Crown Prince Hassan cancelled the missiles at their source, by
a meeting and ceremony dedi- the time they return their air-
cating a park to the seven school- field could be destroyed, making
girls killed by a Jordanian soldier it impossible for them to land, re-
two months ago due to a crisis in fuel and rearm. ❑