-

the grade, in which case either the
\ --n
books will be cooked, or the entry
post will be lowered, or, maybe,
the deadline will be delayed by 6
or 12 months.
However, Nakamuli adds, even
when the lineup becomes clear,
say a year from now, the defini-
tive exchange rates between the
currencies joining the EMU will
remain unknown.
These are the most crucial
\-
data, but even the method of de-
termining them has yet to be de-
termined: Will they be the rates
in force on Dec. 31, 1998, or an
average of rates over December
that year, or perhaps of Novem-
ber-December, or of the entire
second half of 1998?
In any event, when D-Day
comes, the euro will become legal
currency, and the new European
-
central bank will become the ar-
biter of monetary policy for the
whole continent, because even
those currencies not allowed in at
first— such the Italian lira, Span
ish peseta and Portuguese escudo
— or those choosing not to join —
presumably the British pound —
will be dominated by the euro.
But the old currencies —
marks, francs and so on — will not
\---) disappear overnight. "This is not
going to be a Big Bang chang-
eover," notes Nakamuli, referring
to Margaret Thatcher's sweeping
financial-market deregulation a
decade ago. Although equity mar-
kets and accounting systems will
switch to the euro on that date, the
business and commercial sectors
cannot operate on that basis. The
30 billion notes and the estimat-
/- ed 300,000 tons of metal compris-
ing the coins in use, will continue
to circulate for the duration of
Phase B, which will extend from
Jan. 1, 1999, to Jan. 1, 2002.
In fact, because of its proximity
to the Christmas shopping season,
this latter date is actually more
likely to be postponed due to the
pressure of the retail sector.
=
In any event, during this pen-
' od of"cohabitation," accounts and
"book money" can and will be
recorded in either euros or marks/
francs etc., while cash will still be
in the form of the old currencies.
But from 2002, the euro will be the
sole legal tender in those countries
encompassed by the EMU.
If this isn't complicated enough,
it's worth noting that the assort-
; ed Italys and Spains which are
/- expected to miss the 1999 dead-
line will probably come aboard
the EMU ship during Phase B, so
that the permutations of what is
happening in different countries
at different times become even
more bewildering.
Alec Nakamuli's job is to map
the forest and help prepare the
teams assigned to each of the di-
verse trees which fill it. He finds
it hard to believe that Israel has
yet to register even a faint tremor
stemming from the tremendous
upheaval underway in Europe. El
(c) Jerusalem Post 1997

Happy

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