PHOTOS BY DAN IEL LIPPITT Business Crystal Spreading north and west or returning to the downtowns? Builders speculate on where we will live in two decades. ALAN ABRAMS SPECIAL TO THE JEWISH NEWS VII hat will be the next West Bloomfield in 20 years? Will the metro Detroit Jew- ish community make another 'massive migration? Will we head further west? Or will it be north? How far will you have to commute from home to work in 2017? Three of southeastern Michigan's lead- ing home builders give very different an- swers. Gilbert "Buzz" Silveiman, president and chief executive officer of the Silver- man Companies, thinks we have to put jobs into the answer. "We've got to con- sider where jobs will be moving to. I want to look at access, road systems, utilities, to answer that question. Because access creates what we call growth corridors, or preferred corridors. "Some of the decision process in se- lecting great locations is instinct. But much comes from analyzing a significant amount of raw data," said Mr. Silverman. "This is definitely the information age, and if you don't have the information to- day, you will age. Your competitors will have it, and use it. So we are very inter- ested in computer-assisted demograph- ic research. We do some of that internally. And we hire out some of that externally to consultants. "That's all important, but it still helps to be lucky," he added. "Within our land development group, we do focus group research to determine the buying habits of the markets that we see as the growth markets. We sit around in a room behind one-way glass, and the moderator asks questions of people who are willing participants. We find out a lot of things we probably already knew, but we also reinforce those things. And through that focus group information, we target markets which we see as the emerging West Bloomfields, and then we're out looking to buy property. "You begin with location, and under- standing where the growth is going. And you look at jobs, you look at access, you look at schools, you look at shopping and Scott Jacobson: Migration continues. entertainment. You can come up with a first, second, third houses there. "Now it didn't happen to us, really, un- systematic approach over a period of years towards market-driven, market- til they (the Jewish community) got to West Bloomfield. When they lived on directed operations. "So where's the next West Bloomfield? Hastings Street, they moved to 12th That's really the mission that you're on Street. From 12th Street, they moved every day in this business, to find the to Dexter, then to northwest Detroit. Af- next hot location. We actually prefer to ter the white flight started, then you had take existing hot locations and bring Oak Park. And people didn't buy a sec- ond home in Oak Park in most cases. them up to market. "It wasn't common to see people grow "In other words, we're not land pio- neers. We like to buy land that is ready to go, in the in- fill sites, while looking at new areas that are just about to emerge," Mr. Sil- verman said. "Much of what we do are unusual, unique sites that are in closer-in locations," he said. Ask builder Bernard Glieberman of Crosswinds Communities, Inc., where the next migration pattern will be for the metropolitan Detroit Jewish communi- ty and you get a different perspective. "It's not going to happen like that anymore," said the Novi-based builder, whose companies were ranked No. 1 for total building permits in the metro Detroit eight- county area in 1996. "We're through expanding. We're out about as far as we're go- ing to go. "What you're starting to see now is people growing up and staying within their community," said Mr. Glieberman. "It started-re- ally, the first one I could think of, was Dearborn. And Livonia was probably second, where you could see a pattern of people saying, `I want to stay within the community.' So they bought Bull Silverman: Close to jobs. up in Southfield, and move back into Southfield when they became adults. "But once we got into West Bloomfield, Troy, Rochester, it was different," said Mr. Glieberman. "Now, even Royal Oak, it's happening in reverse there now. We're starting to see people say, love it here.' "So we're out in West Bloomfield. And now you're starting to see people moving into West Bloomfield who couldn't buy in West Bloomfield. They've rented a house or an apartment in West Bloomfield. That's a major change," he said. "And now you're also start- ing to see the young people who grew up in the suburbs say, 'I want an urban lifestyle,' and they are mov- ing to Royal Oak, they are moving to the city of Rochester. They're moving to downtown Detroit. "We're building a site in Detroit right now, Elmwood Park, where 40 percent of our sales are to people coming from outside of Detroit back into the city," said Mr. Glieberman. "I think we're starting to see the migration in reverse. Sure, there's the pioneer that goes out to Metamora. There's the guy who goes out to White Lake Township. But that's not the norm. "I see the cut-off around Northville, Plymouth, south. Even Ann Arbor, but that's a different reason. I think with young people now, the move- ment is definitely to an ur ban lifestyle," said Mr. Glieberman. "Young people are starting to say now, 'I was robbed of part of my childhood in that I lived in the suburbs, and CRYSTAL BALL page 70 ti Cr) CO C CD CC 03