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Headed for Saudi Arabia?

ro-Israel forces here are quietly debating the most
appropriate response to the rumored American sale
of up to 150 advanced F-16 jets to Saudi Arabia.
For more than a decade, arms sales to countries
such as the desert kingdom have provoked only token op-
position from Jewish forces.
Groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee, the pro-Israel lobby, generally have signaled
unhappiness with such sales, but have not mounted se-
rious opposition. This is in part because of the desire to
maintain smooth relations with the White House and in
part because Israel's military superiority makes such
sales far less threatening than they were in the past.
The Israeli government has avoided showdowns over
arms sales for the same reasons. Israeli officials were
briefed on the upcoming sale by the administration last
week.
But the scope of the upcoming sale and the problems
facing the Saudi government could change that calculus.
"We won't take any formal positions before we know
the size of the proposed sale and its timing," said Mal-
colm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Confer-
ence of Presidents of Major American Jewish
Organizations. "But this is going to be a very serious is-
sue with our community, given Saudi Arabia's record re-
cently and given the numbers of airplanes."
Many pro-Israel leaders are making the case that this
sale is different because of the growing instability of
the Saudi regime. If the current Saudi government sur-
vives, the sale would do little to threaten Israel; if it falls
to Islamic militants, the F-16s could have a significant
impact in the regional balance of power — a lesson this

country learned the hard way after the fall of the armed-
to-the-teeth Shah of Iran.
But the economics of the arms sale, which could add
up to as much as $30 billion, will make it hard to fight.
"This is really just one more jobs creation program for
the administration," said a Jewish staffer on Capitol Hill.
"You can make a case against the sale on the merits, but
passing a resolution of disapproval will be difficult, if not
impossible, because of the economic impact."
Recognizing that reality, pro-Israel forces are expected
to use the current unpopularity of the Saudi regime to
wrest military concessions for Israel as part of the deal.

South Africa, Syria

"indignant" when he saw the letter, a sentiment he in-
structed an aide to convey to the South African Embassy.
But the letter may be just routine congressional out-
reach, according to other congressional officials. And ad-
ministration sources indicate that the White House is
satisfied that the deal has been put in bureaucratic lim-
bo — a face-saving alternative to publicly repudiating the
sale.
This week, officials at the South African Embassy were
set to meet with a delegation of Jewish leaders on the con-
troversial sale, at the embassy's invitation.
`They've reached out," said one prominent Jewish ac-
tivist here. "There seems to be a desire to put this con-
troversy behind us — without making any dramatic
statements that would look like they caved in to Ameri-
can pressure."

A few weeks ago, reports that South Africa was con-
sidering the sale of $600 million worth of advanced tank
firing systems to Syria infuriated officials in Washing-
No Mideast Visit
ton.
The pointed administration response — a blunt mes-
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has not yet revealed
sage to Syrian President Hafez al-Assad — generated her exact plans for the Middle East peace process, but her
quick results; after a few angry blasts at Washington, travel plans may offer some clues as to her involvement.
the South African government put the sale on hold.
Last week, the State Depal talent announced her in-
But the hold may be only temporary.
augural tour as secretary, and her itinerary does not in-
Last week, the charge d'affaires at the South African clude the Middle East.
Embassy in Washington distributed a letter to members
Instead, Ms. Albright will embark on a nine-nation
of Congress offering to discuss the controversy "before jaunt with stops in Italy, Germany, Belgium and Britain
taking any final decision."
before going on to Moscow and Beijing.
Some members of Congress saw that as an effort to
Most diplomatic observers expected Ms. Albright, whose
keep the possibility of a sale alive, and to gauge the depth
career has had a distinctly European emphasis, to make
of congressional opposition.
Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., according to a staffer, was SALE DEBATE page 80