Elf]
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CONFIDENTIAL CASH!

LTC!
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Gold, Diamond and
Estate Jewelry.

Some banks have had to set
aside additional sums to their
loan-loss provisions because they
have overstepped these guide-
lines. Virtually all banks are
"loaned out," so that there is lit-
tle money left for the real-estate
sector.
Finally, developers do not
want to take any chances with
the uncertain foreign residents'
market. Due to the political sit-
uation, developers have put a
hold on Israeli building projects
geared to foreign residents.
On the supply side then, there
are several serious problems, the
most acute being the credit
crunch which has deeply affect-
ed the developers' ability to fi-
nance new projects.
The demand side is somewhat
less complicated. Based on sta-
tistics regarding young married
couples and projected aliyah, Is-
rael needs about 50,000 units per
year.
Absorption Minister Yuri
Edelstein has predicted higher
immigration, particularly from
the Commonwealth of Indepen-
dent States (CIS - the former So-
viet Union) in the coming year.
Experience has shown that
immigrants from the CIS have
quickly moved from being
renters to home owners, so that
the demand for homes should
not decrease.
The bottom line seems to be
then that Economics 101 applies
to this situation, namely, rising
or steady demand but lower sup-
ply.
Why then are prices not ris-
ing?
Clearly, the meteoric rise of
housing prices over the last few
years cannot last forever. In dol-
lar terms, the increase in hous-
ing prices from 1989 to 1995
exceeded 155 percent.
The same Economics 101
teaches that something has to
give when prices rise so high so
quickly.
Economists predict a 5 percent
reduction in housing prices for
1997 in real terms. It would
seem then that while prices may
come down somewhat in 1997, it
should not be a huge drop or for
an extended period.
Potential buyers who are en-
titled to government benefits (za-
kaim) should also keep in mind
that Ministry of Housing officials
have hinted that there will be no
adjustment for inflation in the
benefits package. This means
that the erosion in real terms of
these benefits may not make it
worth putting off the purchase
of an attractive home.
Market dynamics more often
than not have a life of their own
and predicting trends is a very
risky business.
However, it seems that a full-
fledged, long-term real-estate cri-
sis in Israel, a la New York or
London, seems unlikely. 1

(c) Jerusalem Post 1997

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