COLD page 113

Justice) Aharon Barak, there would prob-
ably have been no peace treaty.
Mr. Weizman kept the lines of com-
munication open. The only Israeli that
Sadat would still talk to, Mr. Weizman
coaxed and cajoled, smiled and shmoozed.
Mr. Sadat melted. Their "chemistry" gave
the negotiators another chance.
It is a measure of the diplomatic dete-
rioration since Binyamin Netanyahu took
office four months ago that Mr. Weizman
must repeat the role — and that, how-
ever reluctantly, the prime minister has
given his blessing.
While Mr. Netanyahu could not have
vetoed the president's meetings with the
Arab leaders, he could have made his dis-
pleasure known.
But he knew better. While Israel is
used to refrigerated relations with Egypt,
the current chill is the coldest so far. Mr.
Mubarak, who announced that he would
not meet Mr. Netanyahu until he saw
progress on the Palestinian track, hint-
ed that next month's Middle East busi-
ness summit in Cairo would be
downgraded to foreign minister level.
That would preclude the attendance of
Israel's prime minister.
Mr. Netanyahu was more shaken by
rebuffs from Amman. The Israeli believed

that he had established a friendship with
the royal court, even when he was in op-
position.
Yet, Mr. Hussein brutally denounced
him over Bill Clinton's White House
lunch table — and
someone made sure the
rebuke leaked out.
"What is needed," the
king said, "is not arro-
gance, but wisdom and
vision. My friend,
Yitzhak Rabin, had that
wisdom and vision. I
hope that one day you
might have it too."
Worse, both Messrs.
Mubarak and Hussein
were predicting a new
Middle East war if Mr.
Netanyahu did not
mend his ways. They
signalled Mr. Weizman
that they would not
start the battle.
It is all representative of a change in
the balance between Israel and the Pales-
tinians that is fundamental. For the first
time since the Oslo breakthrough three
years ago, Mr. Arafat has the initiative
and he's making the most of it.

The Palestinians act, or bang the table.
Israel reacts. He does Mr. Netanyahu a
favor when he agrees to talk. Mr. Arafat
no longer needs the accolade.
On the other front, the Likud govern-
ment is begging the
Palestinians to revise the
security provisions for
..2,:k 4 N4
Jewish settlers in Hebron
just enough to let Mr.
‘k.
Netanyahu save face
and pull troops out as
soon as possible. Mr.
Arafat is playing hard-
ball, insisting that Israel
implement the previous
government's signed
agreement to leave most
of Hebron.
What changed the
equation was Mr. Ne-
tanyahu's Sept. 23 deci-
sion to open the
contentious archaeologi-
cal tunnel alongside the
Temple Mount. Climaxing three months
of stagnation and condescension, it pro-
voked a brief new intifada — one with
guns. It left 16 Israeli soldiers and 57
Palestinians dead.
Now, whatever reported pledges of

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non-violence Mr. Arafat may have given
Mr. Weizman at Caesarea, Israel can
never be sure that such a tragedy will not
recur.
The army responded last month
by trundling tanks to the edge of Nablus
and other Arab towns. In a full-scale
military confrontation, Israel would
overwhelm them. But both sides knew
the deployment was a bluff. Israel
could not resort to heavy weapons
without jeopardizing the entire peace
process.
Thus, Mr. Netanyahu can no longer
impose his own agenda. Assuming the
Hebron redeployment goes ahead, he will
try to make it the last pull-out, although
the Oslo agreements commit Israel to
more of them. He will still resist a Pales-
tinian state. He will strive to consolidate
Israel's grip on the whole of Jerusalem
and the settlements.
But the dynamics are different. And if
he doesn't achieve enough to satisfy
Palestinian appetites, who is to say that
Mr. Arafat won't order Palestinian po-
licemen back for another taste of glory?
Meanwhile, Ezer Weizman will
be using all of his charm in the
center of another turbulent time for his
nation. ❑

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