"Kemp's nomination — not to denigrate Dole — means that a more serious eco- nomic debate will take place," he said. "That's a terrain that's very comfortable for Jews. The focus won't be on social is- sues, on 'character', those issues will be there, but the emphasis will clearly be eco- nomic." If Mr. Kemp's nomination solidifies sup- port among Jews sitting on the Republi- can fence, Mr. Gore's presence on the ticket reinforces the administration's frayed con- nections to the old Democratic center, a strategy that took on greater urgency when President Clinton signed the Republican welfare reform package recently, enraging the leaders of many Jewish groups. - "Gore is trusted by the Democrats' core liberal constituency," said political scien- tist Benjamin Ginsberg of Johns Hopkins University. "To many of them, Clinton is seen as a necessary evil, with no real ide- ology; Gore is seen as someone who does have a political philosophy, not as some- body who will do whatever it takes to get elected. That can be important to Jewish voters." On a broader level, both candidates bring something important to their re- spective tickets that make up for deficien- cies in the presidential candidates. Mr. Kemp's robust speaking style and his unusually consistent record help make up for Mr. Dole's primary weaknesses — his dreary campaign style and the wide- spread perception that he has flip-flopped on almost every important issue, includ- ing Israel. "Kemp's selection was a smart, surpris- ing move," Mr. Ginsberg said. "Dole is an awkward, unexciting campaigner; Kemp is very exciting to watch. Overall, he rep- resents a big plus for the campaign." Mr. Gore, a self-described policy wonk, brings a note of sobriety and rectitude to an administration headed up by Bill Clin- ton — a flamboyant, charismatic cam- Only Modest Impact Seen Most observers agree that both vice pres- idential candidates will wage intense war- fare in the Jewish community, where each has a sizable and enthusiastic following and where both are well regarded even by supporters of the other party. "Actually, the ideal ticket from a Jew- ish point of view would be Gore-Kemp — or Kemp-Gore," said Rabbi Bronner. But the vice presidential battle is un- likely to have a big impact on the final tal- ly when Jewish votes are counted on Nov. 5. Most observers, Democrats and Repub- licans, agree that Mr. Kemp's surprise nomination may produce only a modest Jewish swing in the direction of the GOP. That would still give Mr. Clinton a huge margin of victory among the Jewish elec- torate. `The vice presidential candidates won't be pivotal," said Howard Friedman, a pro- Israel political fund-raiser in Baltimore who often has met with both candidates. "I think Dole will pick up an extra 5 per- cent of the Jewish vote because of Kemp; he'll pick up some of the voters who were sitting on the fence, who might have vot- ed for Dole but were uncomfortable with his record on Israel." But most voters look only at the top of the ticket — and for most Jewish voters, the choice is clear, Mr. Friedman said. "Clinton is a known quantity now," he said. "When you look at the contest be- tween Dole and Clinton, there's no choice. Clinton has a respectable record on our is- sues; Dole's is less than respectable, so he'll have to rely on Kemp to reach out to the Jewish community. But that won't be enough to draw a large number of Jew- ish votes away from the Democrats." If Mr. Dole does win, he said, Mr. Kemp's presence in the administration would pro- vide pro-Israel forces with badly needed "Gore is seen as someone who does have a political philosophy, I believe it is doing— then the fact that it's a Kemp-Dole ticket will bring Jewish vot- ers over-to the Republican side," he said. "Orthodox voters who support school choice, pro-Israel voters who have been touched by Jack Kemp, Soviet Jewry sup- porters who remember what he did for those people. But if the race doesn't close up, a lot of people in the Jewish commu- nity will stay where they have been his- torically." And that means with the Democrats. Even Sen. Arlen Specter, a Jewish Re- publican, says Mr. Kemp's impact will de- pend upon his running mate. Mr. Kemp's nomination "will have a very positive impact on the campaign in the Jewish community," said Mr. Specter, who challenged Mr. Dole in the early primaries. "Kemp's presence will ease concerns in the Jewish community, and in other minority communities. But in the end, the degree of that impact will depend on the quality of the campaign that Dole runs." If Mr. Gore and Mr. Kemp neutralize each other in the pursuit of Jewish sup- port in this year's campaign, there's always the race for the presidency in 2000 to con- sider. Mr. Kemp's decision to stay out of the 1996 primaries, and his conflict with some of the social-conservative leaders of the new Republican Party, seemed to relegate him to has-been status in presidential pol- itics. But his selection as Mr. Dole's run- ning mate puts him right on track for the next presidential go-round: "His nomination is very much a rebirth for Kemp," Mr. Friedman said. "This puts him in a very good position to run in 2000, if Dole loses; if [Dole] wins, many people think it's unlikely he'll seek a second term because of his age, so Kemp will have an even better shot." At the same time, Vice President Gore is making unmistakable noises about his own candidacy in four years. His promi- nent role at the Democratic National Con- vention and appearances designed to demonstrate a growing independence from his boss are calculated to give his candi- dacy an early boost, according to Democ- ratic Party insiders. not as somebody who will do whatever it takes to get elected." —Johns Hopkins political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg paigner who has sometimes done a poor job selecting friends and associates, as the recent scandal that ousted top campaign strategist Dick Morris reminded a nervous party. The vice president cements ties to the environmental movement, and he brings foreign policy expertise to an ad- ministration that continues to fight criti- cism that it has neglected security and international concerns. reassurance. But this November's contest, he argued, is Mr. Clinton's to lose; the vice presidential race is just an interesting side- bar. Mr. Breger, the longtime Jewish Re- publican leader, said the extent of Mr. Kemp's impact on Jewish votes depends on the closeness of the race as November approaches. "If this race becomes competitive — as That puts the pedal to the metal for a straightaway Kemp-Gore race in 2000. "And that would present the Jewish community with a very interesting choice," Mr. Friedman said. ❑