will probably be a Democrat, since the party will continue to be
the political power base of the Jewish community."
Marshall Breger, a Washington law professor who served as
Jewish liaison in the Reagan White House, put it another way.
"It would have to be a candidate who fit in to the national
weltanschauung ," he said. "It won't be a Jewish liberal from
New York; most likely, he or she will come from a non-Jewish
part of the country, because that's a candidate who has developed
a persona that can succeed with non-Jewish neighbors. It will
be somebody who is identifiably Jewish, but doesn't necessarily
wear it on his or her sleeve."
"The ideal presidential candidate would be religious, but not
ultra-Orthodox," said another longtime political observer in
Washington. "It's inconceivable that an avowed secularist could
win. He or she can't look too Jewish; Americans expect their
presidents to look sort of like TV anchormen, and let's face it:
Anchormen generally don't look very ethnic."

-

Anti-Semitic 'Whispering 9

•

•

/—)

•

▪

But anti-Semitism is tenacious; even the optimists concede it
would be a factor during any presidential contest involving a
Jew.
Anti-Catholicism contributed heavily to Al Smith's defeat in
1928, and it almost kept John Kennedy from the presidency in
1960, said Professor Lichtman.
"We can expect there will be a similar whispering campaign
against any Jewish candidate," he said. "Extremist groups like
the militias would openly campaign against him or her. The la-
tent anti-Semitism will come out; it may not come out openly,
but it may come out in the privacy of the ballot box."
Political scientists have noted a striking trend when black
candidates run for office. In polls, voters often indicate they will
vote for African-Americans. But when they get into the voting
booth, they find themselves unable to pull the lever for the black
candidate.
More important is the growing venom in American public life
and a greater factionalization driven by groups with a highly
sectarian agenda.
"History tells us that when nations begin to organize their
politics in terms of religious blocs and when actual religious
parties are created, Jews have good reason to worry," said Johns
Hopkins University political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg. "We
could be reaching that point; it will be particularly important
for us to watch the direction the Christian Coalition takes in
the next few years."
If the trend toward bitter religiously motivated politics con-
tinues, Jews may find themselves scrambling to preserve the
gains of the past few decades instead of working toward the
next milestone in the community's political ascendance.
Professor Ginsberg sees another reason Jewish political power
may have plateaued.
"Jews rose to prominence as part of the Democratic Party
coalition," he said. 'That coalition is clearly weakening; we find
ourselves aligned with a political force that seems to be spent.
We are heavily invested in a stock of declining value."
Professor Ginsberg argues that electing a Jewish president,
while symbolically important, is not the critical test of Jewish
political clout going into the 21st century; more important, he
argues, is how voters respond to growing political divisions that
are colored by religious identification.
The fear of being a lightning rod for anti-Semites may be
enough to convince some potential candidates to pass up the
presidential contest.
The first strong Jewish candidate for president will need a
thick skin, said Mr. Specter, whose abortive campaign for this
year's GOP nomination generated a minor outpouring of anti-
Semitic hate mail.
"There are impediments to a Jewish candidacy," he said. "Be-
ing Jewish does cost some votes; I don't know how many. There
is a residue of racism and anti-Semitism that lurks just below
the surface; campaigns always bring it out. It's hard to take,
but you can't cower before it."

Question Of Israel

There is one more question that will likely confront the first se-
rious Jewish contender for the White House: Could he or she
- count on Jewish community support?.

When Mr. Specter ran for this year's GOP nomination, he
won only tepid backing from Jewish Republicans, and almost
no support from the big Jewish fenders who play an increas-
ingly important role in the political wars.
Jewish leaders, according to many observers, often bend over
backward not to show favoritism to fellow Jews in the politi-
cal fray. And some fear that visible Jewish candidates can un-
leash latent anti-Semitism. Mr. Specter said his "blood boils"
when he thinks about that reaction.
"There's a novel about the first Jewish president — The Want-
ing of Levine, by Michael Halberstam," Mr. Specter said. "I read
it very carefully. In the book, Levine, the candidate, meets with
the National Jewish League — a euphemism for a major Jew-
ish group. They refuse to endorse him because they're afraid to
put their heads above the trench line. I saw this when I ran for
mayor of Philadelphia in 1967, and I saw it in my presidential
campaign. It's subtle, it's written in invisible ink — and it's dis-
gusting."
A serious Jewish contender also would face a delicate prob-
lem when it comes to Israel.
Presidents are supposed to be our ultimate patriots; a Jew-
ish candidate undoubtedly would be called on to renounce any
hint of national loyalty to Israel. "We are one" is fine for UJA
presidents, but it will never sell in mainstream America.
That would produce dismay in some Jewish quarters, where
pro-Israel credentials are the only credentials that count.
Again, Mr. Lieberman may be the model for Jewish candi-
dates of the future: A national security hawk, he has man-
aged to fold his deep concern for Israel's survival into his
consistent focus on a strong and secure America.
But that combination of ardent Americanism and the deep
commitment to Israel shared by most Jews has never been put
to the severe test of a presidential campaign.
The first serious Jewish presidential candidate also could
produce squabbles between different groups of Jews: Would Or-
thodox Jews support a Jewish candidate who eats pork bar-
becue at political gatherings? Would Reform Jews vote for an
Orthodox candidate who attends a shul where men and women
are separated?
These conflicts reflect a reality underlying speculation about
the first Jewish president: The Jewish community, despite the
potent symbolism of a strong Jewish candidacy, remains am-
bivalent about the prospect.
Publicly, Jewish leaders insist they no longer need to count
the number of Jews in high places; in private, they keep close
tabs on the count in Congress and the administration.
But there are still many Jews, including prominent and pow-
erful ones, who fear a serious Jewish candidacy because of the
possibility of an anti-Semitic backlash and because of the
prospect of fearsome internal divisions over a candidate who
can't possibly be all things to all Jews.
A strong Jewish candidacy would mean a lot to American
Jews — and it would mean a lot of anxiety, as well, for a com-
munity that is not feeling nearly as secure as it likes to let on. 0

The nation,
many believe,
finally could
be ready
for a
president
in a kippah.

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