No Time For Pandering Clinton and Dole must understand there's something more important than votes at stake in Middle East policy. /— JAMES B. BESSER WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT Warren Christopher met with Binyamin Netanyahu on June 25 as a prelude to the Washington visit. N residential elections rarely produce far- sighted foreign policy. In 1996, that fact could play out in particular- ly destructive ways in the Middle East, where firm, coura- geous American poli- cymaking is needed to preserve an endangered peace process. The kind of pandering, short- term foreign policy that litters the campaign trail is easy: Tell every constituency what he wants to hear, make a lot of promises without worrying too much about conflicting pledges, and use the full weight of Amer- ican diplomacy to win points with the folks back home, no matter what the long-term impact on American international interests. And then there's real foreign policy, which is based on hard- headed analyses of the long-term aims of the United States in a world where options are rarely straightforward and never cost- free, although foreign policy, at least in a democracy, can never be separated entirely from politics. It is important to keep that ba- sic distinction in mind as the ad- ministration begins to feel its way around a Middle East that was turned inside out by the recent victory of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and the repudiation of the land-for-peace policies of his predecessor, Shi- mon Peres. President Clinton's emphasis on finding a formula for a com- prehensive, region-wide peace, and his willingness to help Israel deal with the risks that any peace process entails, reflect a serious reading of American interests in the region. In an age when rogue states driven by Islamic extremism and outright craziness may pose the biggest threat to American secu- rity, finding a solution to the gen- erations-old Arab-Israeli conflict is an essential first step in pro- tecting this nation's interests. "It's not sheer idealism that has pushed the United States in this direction," said a source close to the peace process. "It's a very down-to-earth understanding that this conflict cannot be al- lowed to continue in an environ- ment where the next war or the next wave of terrorism could well bring nonconventional weapons into the picture." But the administration's lack of any contingency plans for a Peres defeat reflected the short- term desire to keep relations smooth before the presidential election. Even more significant is Mr. Clinton's apparent desire not to ruffle Mr. Netanyahu's feathers by making it crystal clear that American interests rest squarely with a continuation of the current peace process, albeit with a greater emphasis on Is- raeli security. Former Sen. Bob Dole's Mid- dle East policy is more firmly rooted in the imperatives of raw politics. Mr. Netanyahu's foreign pol- icy is unformed; he is still in the process of sorting out the ideol- ogy of his new government and both the internal and external pressures that will affect its di- rection. And one of the critical factors will be American policy in the early days of the new regime. Mr. Dole's recent blank-check endorsement of Mr. Netanyahu reflects a politically driven Mideast policy that could help tilt the balance in Israel toward those in the government who want an end to the peace process, not a security-minded slowdown. Likewise, any decision by the Clinton administration to defer weighing in with its strong con- cern about the survival of the ne- gotiations until the president is safely re-elected can only rein- force those in the new govern- ment who want to reverse the Oslo Accords and end the nego- Mr. Dole, a longtime critic of tiations with Syria. Israeli policy on a host of issues, suddenly is trying to position Nobody likes to think about himself as a pro-Israel hawk. For American pressure; historically, years, he opposed moving the strong-arming from Washington American Embassy to Jerusalem has almost always produced a —until he began running for the counterproductive backlash in Is- White House, when he became rael. But finely calibrated, firm the leading proponent of the American input, aimed at pre- move. Last week, at a reception serving the peace process while marking the birthday of New understanding Mr. Netanyahu's York Gov. George Pataki, he of- need to proceed with a greater fered a virtual endorsement of emphasis on security, may be the Mr. Netanyahu's hard-line posi- only way to avert a meltdown in tions without even knowing what talks that are clearly vital to this country's interests. those positions would be. At the same time, Washington Mr. Dole, courting Orthodox and right-wing Jewish votes, has must make it clearer to Syrian yet to offer a vision of the region President Hafez al-Assad and and the U.S. role in the quest for PLO leader Yassir Arafat that peace and security that goes the time for equivocation has passed; if Israel needs to be much beyond election day. nudged to keep the peace process going, Syria and the Palestinians Netanyahu Sorting need to be pushed with bulldoz- Out Policy ers. Input from Washington will That brings us to the new gov- ernment in Israel, which was not be easy, given the big gaps elected because Israeli voters between current American poli- were frightened by the aggres- cy and the commitments Mr. Ne- sive land-for-peace policies of the tanyahu has made to key Peres government and its per- constituent groups. It also will be ceived lack of focus on Israel's se- complicated by the American Jewish right, which already is curity needs: Mr. Netanyahu is bound by his mobilized to resist any new own ideology and his electoral American pressure. But Mr. Dole and Mr. Clinton mandate to put Israel's short- term security ahead of the long- owe it to voters to go beyond pan- term quest for a comprehensive dering and political posturing and work out a consistent, force- peace. Those goals are appropriate; ful American role in the negotia- what is uncertain is how he will tions in which we continue to q have a tremendous stake. ü implement them.